Midweek tropical wave for Florida

[Derek Ortt]

seeing better low level convergence this afternoon. Maybe a couple of very rainy days for the Peninsula upcoming

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
319 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

FLZ050-271945-
PINELLAS-
319 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAINT
PETERSBURG...SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH...PINELLAS PARK AND SEMINOLE...
UNTIL 345 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED! IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN
FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

$$

EJ

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A large area of convergence at the low
levels has aided in the growth of the
convection! Could we see some
slow tropical development out of this???
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Note the large area of convergence and
convection over the Bahamas:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html

[punkyg]

Any one see this yet?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272105
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...
FLORIDA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURRICANELONNY]

All I been hearing since the weekend is waves that seem not to do much. They never get a handle on waves. Every year the same thing. It looks good then it fizzles out. The set up looks good so maybe we in S.Fl and hopefully the lake will get at least an inch. Hopefully more.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This must be a huge dissappointment as of
right now...no rain over south florida

but expect that to change as the blob
gets closer then the rain should
pick up that would be late tonight or early
tomorrow...

[Noah]

Thundering and cloudy gray sky's in Sarasota, but NO rain.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I would not be surprised if this
attempted to form a surface
low over the next couple of days...
tropical development in the cards??

[ftolmsteen]

I would not be surprised if this
attempted to form a surface
low over the next couple of days...
tropical development in the cards??

I wouldn't be surprised. It looks like the upper low that's in the W. Carribbean is actually creating a small, favorable area to the east of it where the upper winds are diverging apart right where the wave is located. CMC has a low developing heading up the FL east coast and out to sea, while GFS is moving it a little more west and into the FL gulf coast and straight up the peninsula.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

bring on the rain!
If we get a tropical entity
we could see more substantial
heavy rains...
so long as it stays
a depression and nothing stronger...

[wzrgirl1]

I want it to rain for 2 days straight............doing the dance now

[ronjon]

Don't ya just love the pretty colors of this tropical wave heading right for FL. I can hear the tree frogs croakin already.

[Cyclone1]

Watch it dissipate 3 miles off the coast tonight... It probably will with my luck.

[Recurve]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
RECENTLY DIMINISHED IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THIS AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE BEYOND OUR NORTHWESTERN GULF BOUNDARIES. ALTHOUGH
WINDS HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED THANKS TO THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THE WIND DIRECTION HAS
FAVORED THE EAST MOST LOCATIONS. AWAY FROM THE GUSTS FROM THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...GRADIENT WINDS HAVE SETTLED AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
MOST CMAN LOCATIONS. ISLAND SENSORS HAVE AVERAGED BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH. PERIODIC RAIN AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE ISLANDS.

.FORECAST...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEARS OUT THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH MORE DEFINED CIRCULATIONS OVER SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
AND THE YUCATAN. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS/WAVES
HAVE BEEN SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...TO OUR SOUTH AND MORE RECENTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY DECENT
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEIR SOLUTIONS
AT LOWER LEVELS DIFFER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THE NAM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING SURFACE PRESSURES LOCALLY BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
UPPER KEYS BY 00Z FRIDAY. LOOKING AT ITS INITIALIZATION...ESPECIALLY
FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD...BELIEVE THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AT THIS
TIME. THE CANADIAN DOES GIVE SOME SUPPORT TO THE NAM...BUT NOT AS
STRONG. OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF OTHER SUPPORT FOR SUCH A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...SO THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THAT
SAID...THE CURRENT ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL EASE OFF THE COAST WHILE THE PERTURBATION/WAVE IN THE
BAHAMAS LIFTS CLOSER TO OUR IMMEDIATE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE CLOSE TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES TO LINGER ACROSS
FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE
VALUES RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
I WILL ADJUST OUR RAIN CHANCES UPWARD TO 60 PERCENT FOR BOTH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. POPS DROP BACK TO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN AS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW DEVELOPS...AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REPLACES TO DEPARTING
TUTT. POPS WILL DROP TO A LOWER CHANCE BY FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE. THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVENTUALLY PULLING OFF
THE EAST COAST AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS
PENINSULAR FLORIDA. WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE LATE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.CLIMATE...
THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...ON JUNE 27 1942 THE TEMPERATURE
DROPPED DOWN TO 69 DEGREES IN KEY WEST...SETTING A DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD THAT STILL STANDS TODAY.

04/JL/MP

[caneman]

According to the 8:00 Pm Advisory the ULL to the West of Florida is filling in. What affect will this have? Should lessen shear vlaues if something were to get going.

[wzrgirl1]

Watch it dissipate 3 miles off the coast tonight... It probably will with my luck.

i hope you are wrong

[Cyclone1]

Watch it dissipate 3 miles off the coast tonight... It probably will with my luck.

i hope you are wrong

I do too.

[Patrick99]

We got a decent *shower* in the morning in my area. That was about it...pretty much just as I thought. See what happens tonight. I hope to be jarred awake by thunder and lightning...but I doubt it.

[jaxfladude]

this wave is looking goo...my bad that was from another thread(deleted on my pc at least)