Midweek tropical wave for Florida

[cpdaman]

guys don't freak out when this convection dies down over the next couple hours the wave will still bring plenty o rain to florida tommorrow

ummmmkay

p.s i love this forum

[boca]

guys don't freak out when this convection dies down over the next couple hours the wave will still bring plenty o rain to florida tommorrow

ummmmkay

p.s i love this forum

Oh my god the convection is dying off.

[Cyclone1]

Convection usually wanes during the night. It should fire back up tomorrow.

[Recurve]

Convection usually wanes during the night. It should fire back up tomorrow.

Actually the opposite can be true in tropical marine environments. See "diurnal maximum." Convection often increases overnight.

[Cyclone1]

Convection usually wanes during the night. It should fire back up tomorrow.

Actually the opposite can be true in tropical marine environments. See "diurnal maximum." Convection often increases overnight.

Hey cool, I didn't know that. That's the factoid of the day! Anyway, if that's true, shouldn't convection increase tonight?

[wjs3]

Also see nocturnal cloud top cooling. If memroy serves, Linda in the east Pac, 1997, was an awesome example...but, of course, memory may be wrong.


WJS3

[TheRingo]

it's trying to get organized judging by the convection it the last few hours but now seems to be fighting the shear.

[boca]

I think tomorrow will be the pivital day if the wave develops or not because a somewhat deep trough will dig down the eastern US for this weekend and cause more shear.

[harmclan]

for the most part you're right. But this is primarily seen in more developed tropical systems and deals with the atmospheric profile near the surface being moist due to the lack of daytime heating. Temperatures fall to the dew point which also coincides over tropical water. Generally the storms that you see during the late afternoon depend on something called convective available potential energy,while tropical convection does not. In the tropics convection is normally at its maximum right before the sunrise.

[cpdaman]

morning folks well looks like s. fl will get it's rain after all today

couple question about features

on long range radar out of keywest there is circular rotation bout 100 miles WSW of key west and it shows up on water vapor as well
what is this? http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

also broad turning appears evident just off miami or key biscayne maybe this is a mid level feature?

ronjon? any thoughts this morning


also just SW of ANDROS island there appears that another "clump of moisture is turning about down there. are any of these worth watching , really? http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank seems to be moving more northward than other radar returns

[wzrgirl1]

what's up with that feature.....looks like an eye........I know it isn't but it's cool to look at

[NcentralFlaguy]

Interesting...I was under the impression the shear was moderate to high. maybe they mean if it emerges into the se gulf.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
317 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE POSITIONED FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTH
OVER CUBA. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOIST TROPICAL AIR...WITH 00Z KJAX SOUNDING
INDICATING PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES. DOPPLER RADARS INDICATED ISOLATED
COASTAL SHOWERS AND THESE SHOWERS WILL YET AGAIN PUSH INLAND
BEFORE WEAKENING. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH AN ELONGATED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...AND TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE.

THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING MOST SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST UNTIED STATES...WITH TROUGHINESS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE...WITH DIFFERENCES
LEADING TO PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES WITH LOCAL FORECAST. THE GFS
SOLN IS LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...WITH
POSSIBLY A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THE
NAM SOLN ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGESTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
THIS FEATURE INTO A 1010 CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY...WITH FEATURE THEN ADVANCING SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE EAST
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. THIS NAM SCENARIO WOULD INITIALLY DRAW
DRIER AIR INTO JAX CWA...LEADING TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES. WILL
FOLLOW GFS SOLN...WHICH IS WETTER FOR JAX CWA...BUT WILL CERTAINLY
CLOSELY FOLLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE GIVEN VERY WARM
OCEAN WATERS COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

[wzrgirl1]

that is interesting....I think they meant before it got into the gulf was my understanding....but I could be wrong....probably am

[skysummit]

The shear is very weak in the gulf, however, I don't think this will make it into the Gulf. None of the models do anything with it this morning except for the Canadian, and it shunts it off to the northeast.

[windstorm99]

According to the NHC upper level winds right now just dont favor any significant development at this time.

[caneman]

As per June (climo) one wouldn't expect significant development, however, I wouldn't rule out minimal development.

[Weatherfreak14]

i wouldnt be suprised if this was an invest by 5pm this evening.

[Trader Ron]

Well, it's Sunny in Naples. Sure taking it's time getting here. I wonder if we will get that much precipitation. There seems to be a lot of dry air around.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Looks like the whole system is moving north and I don't think the rain will make it to the west coast.

[Trader Ron]

Yep. I see the same thing on radar.