Midweek tropical wave for Florida

[boca]

Yep. I see the same thing on radar.

Its raining here in Boca but where on the edge of it to the west I see blue skies.

[windstorm99]

With windshear at 30kts i dont see development here.Also from the look of things some of this rain is not reaching the ground.Nothing but cloudy skys here.

Of and on showers seem like a good bet to me.Adrian

[cycloneye]

Negative

NHC is not bullish with it.

[ronjon]

Folks, don't focus on the radar only for rainfall probability today. Look at the water vapor loop and you'll see a moisture front slowly progressing N-NW over the peninsula - currently on a line from Tampa to the Cape. With afternoon heating, look for convection to pop over almost the entire southern 2/3 of the peninsula today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html" target="_blank

[windstorm99]

Folks, don't focus on the radar only for rainfall probability today. Look at the water vapor loop and you'll see a moisture front slowly progressing N-NW over the peninsula - currently on a line from Tampa to the Cape. With afternoon heating, look for convection to pop over almost the entire southern 2/3 of the peninsula today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html" target="_blank" target="_blank

We'll we will peobably stay on the cloudy side across south florida which probably limit any severe weather getting going.If we get some breaks in those clouds things could change.Adrian

[Noah]

At this point, I wont believe rain to come to Sarasota in any form until I actually see it rain in front of me.
The weather channel has been saying 30-60% chance of rain here for weeks..
Its a general consensus any more.
Scattered thunderstorms is on my weather channel everyday.

[Frank2]

Here in Broward County we've had three showers since Tuesday morning - true, it's more overcast than yesterday, but, it seems there must be some dry air at the mid or lower levels, since most of the showers and thunderstorms are dissipating as soon as they move inland...

As for those OCM's who keep giving us that "80% chance of rain, some heavy downpours possible" forecast - as Mike Seaver (Growing Pains) would say, "They don't have a clue..."

[Trader Ron]

Here in Broward County we've had three showers since Tuesday morning - true, it's more overcast than yesterday, but, it seems there must be some dry air at the mid or lower levels, since most of the showers and thunderstorms are dissipating as soon as they move inland...

As for those OCM's who keep giving us that "80% chance of rain, some heavy downpours possible" forecast - as Mike Seaver (Growing Pains) would say, "They don't have a clue..."

Frank, I was going to post the same thing. Looks like lots of dry air is in place.

[ronjon]

From Miami Mid-Morning Disc:

AND AS THE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AM EXPECTING MORE ACTIVITY TO MOVE ONSHORE AS WELL AS DEVELOP ACROSS LAND AREAS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST AND CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE (MIA PWAT 2.20 INCHES/CLOSE TO +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE NORM).

Everyone, moisture in the atmosphere doesn't get much higher than that! This is deep tropical air - lots of rain today.

[wjs3]

Yes, it's not a dry air issue. Check out the pretty saturated sounding from Miami (click on the map on the left):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/07062812_OBS/

WJS3

[SouthFloridawx]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 281323
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RAOB DATA SHOWS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
(PW`S ~1.8" LI`S -5C) COVERING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
A NORTHWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. ONGOING GRIDS
AND FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED.

Had a decent complex of storms, move just to my south yesterday. Went out to the causeway, to watch them and saw some pretty cool lightning and watched the Bay kick up some waves in a very short period of time. Hope I'll be doing the same kind of thing today, except watching the lightning and rain over my head, from home.

[Frank2]

Perhaps one of the professional meteorolgists can jump in here and give us their opinion (my apologies if one already did)...

I agree - it seems that dry air is in place over South Florida. Since I posted earlier, we had one light (light) shower, and, now we have some breaks overhead, so, those high PWAT's might not represent what is actually taking place...

Incidentially, the only loud thunderstorms these days are those too-loud TWC OCM's, who seem to enjoy shouting instead of speaking at a normal level...

[Noah]

Is this low moving west? Like to Sarasota??

[windstorm99]

All the rain is basically falling apart right before it makes it onshore.On miami radar things look clear with sunny skys presently outside with the area of rain just offshore and looks to be moving north of miami dade and broward counties.I suspect now with some heating we might get some thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours.

Tropical waves are very unpredictable.Adrian

[SouthFloridawx]

Sweet...

[windstorm99]

Everything is now lifting north of miami dade and broward counties.According to the NHC 1130 this area is moving NW.

View of miami radar...



Melbourne radar...

[Opal storm]

Looks like this thing will enventually bring some rain up here as well.

IN ADDITION...AN EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...UP AROUND TWO INCHES OR MORE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ALL OF WHICH SHOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FORECAST WILL REFLECT DAY TIME
POPS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT. /11

[Frank2]

Partly sunny (or partly cloudy) skies here in Broward at this time - looks like that "double trouble tropic wave rain" (per the local media of the past few days) is over...

And, so much for those "heavy downpours possible" forecasts of early this morning...

Per this blown forecast, I'll often laugh when NBCWP shows their 6-day forecast POP (for example, below):

10 10 20 20 30 50

and, six hours later it'll be:

30 30 40 50 50 60

and, six hours after that it'll be:

10 20 20 10 10 40

This is just my observation, but, as someone who worked in this business many years ago, it seems that weather forecasting is actually getting worse than better.

Twenty or thirty years ago, all our folks had was the 36-hour or 3-day forecast (and 6-10 day outlook), and, it was usually pretty accurate, though the 6-10 day outlook was always very general in nature (it did not include POPS or actual min/max temps) - today, the forecast seems to change from shift to shift - apparently, meteorologists of today are relying too heavily on model runs.

With all due respect, forecasters need to also rely on what they see and know, since weather is like flying, farming or fishing - a lot of it is instinct, and, that cannot come out of a computer...

Frank

[ronjon]

Apparently someone is getting dumped on.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1206 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

FLC085-281800-
MARTIN-
1206 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALM CITY...PORT SALERNO...STUART

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 1204 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE OCCURRED AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

[solarflare]

Northern Martin County, Stuart and Palm City, have gotten 2" in the past hour!
Light rain all morning here in northern Palm Beach County