Midweek tropical wave for Florida

[NDG]

I see a very weak low pressure center trying to get going right about where I put the L, but upper level winds keep pushing the convection away from it, lets see if over the next day or two as the whole system moves northward a low pressure center tries to form closer to the area of convection.

[Trader Ron]

Well, the forecast for Naples was for heavy rain today and tonight. Now it's Showers likely today and T/storms likely tonight.

Looks like most of the precip is moving Northwest.

[fci]

Sure hope that it does not move north and intensify or organize at all.
Not that I am worried about what would be a "fish".
I just want it to move WNW or NW and bring the much needed rain we have been promised by ths system for days now!

[Aric Dunn]

I see a very weak low pressure center trying to get going right about where I put the L, but upper level winds keep pushing the convection away from it, lets see if over the next day or two as the whole system moves northward a low pressure center tries to form closer to the area of convection.

i agree i see it as well .. the only thing is that it will bounce around while it getting going not sure where it will end up .. as for the convection . .. that will begin to fire up here shortly as we start seeing some more convergence.. then just like further north .. it should re fire i over the same areas.. because the shear .. not entirely unfavorable .. 15 kt so and no mid level shear which is good .. if the trend continues we may see a low form ..

[Aric Dunn]

key west radar ... helps with locating the rotation..

[Noah]

Partly sunny (or partly cloudy) skies here in Broward at this time - looks like that "double trouble tropic wave rain" (per the local media of the past few days) is over...

And, so much for those "heavy downpours possible" forecasts of early this morning...

Per this blown forecast, I'll often laugh when NBCWP shows their 6-day forecast POP (for example, below):

10 10 20 20 30 50

and, six hours later it'll be:

30 30 40 50 50 60

and, six hours after that it'll be:

10 20 20 10 10 40

This is just my observation, but, as someone who worked in this business many years ago, it seems that weather forecasting is actually getting worse than better.

Twenty or thirty years ago, all our folks had was the 36-hour or 3-day forecast (and 6-10 day outlook), and, it was usually pretty accurate, though the 6-10 day outlook was always very general in nature (it did not include POPS or actual min/max temps) - today, the forecast seems to change from shift to shift - apparently, meteorologists of today are relying too heavily on model runs.

With all due respect, forecasters need to also rely on what they see and know, since weather is like flying, farming or fishing - a lot of it is instinct, and, that cannot come out of a computer...

Frank

I have to say im with you on this one. Seems like everyday I am hearing rain rain rain and have not seen a drop!

[fci]

The problem may be that there is a circulation developing and the system has a more northerly component leaving South Florida high and dry.
If it stays this way, all of the convection will end up never coming ashore and all we get are clouds and a little shower here and there.
Lots of promise when this was just a wave moving WNW.
Then, after it passed we would have gotten the SW winds and afternoon T-Storms with lots of nice rain.
Hope I am wrong but I think this one is crapping out on us...

[caneman]

Hasn't crapped out on West coast. Nice rain yesterday and more today.

[Noah]

It actually rained here in Sarasota for like 20 mins! A Miracle.

[miamicanes177]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[boca]

I agree with fci this wave is just another bust in my opinion. In Boca Raton its hot and sunny. The whole system is moving north not WNW or NW, otherwise we would of gotten the rain that was forecasted.

[caneman]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

All interpretation. Says significant devlopment not expected but that doesn't mean a depression or minimal TS couldn't form and who knows that could change tomorrow