No big deal [Florida straits]

[cpdaman]

heavy shower in boca

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280838
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Aquawind]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 280631
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
231 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...MUCH NEEDED RAIN ON THE WAY. UPPER LOW
NOW IN E GULF WITH FL PENINSULA NOW ON MOIST SIDE OF SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
WV SAT IMAGERY. SFC WAVE OVER S FL PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER SE FL THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
ISLAND CHAIN. FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD AS
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA TO
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING GENERATING ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALL AREAS WHILE TEMPS
HOLD AROPUND NORMAL. PWATS OVER 2 INCHES TO CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN PRODUCTS. MODELS STALL FEATURES JUST TO OUR W FRI TO
KEEP THE AREA IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR CONTINUED LIKELY POPS.
WEAK SFC LOW MAY FORM ALONG WAVE FRI NT OVER THE AREA AND DRIFT
BACK EASTWARD SAT AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES REMNENT OF VORT MAX
EWARD TOO. WITH LL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY EXPECT HIGHER POPS
INLAND SAT AS WEST COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. TEMP BACK UP A
FEW DEGREES.

....................................................................

Bring on the rain! It's a BIG DEAL..

[boca]

It would be a big deal if it just rained in the Lake O area.

[flwxwatcher]

Looks like a couple days of much needed rainfall for Florida.. As for something developing, I am more interested in next week to see if we can get a surprise when the trof settles down along the Gulf Coast and into the Atlantic Waters.

[SouthFloridawx]

I would have to agree with FCI a couple of pages back. I was wondering if I should even read this thread as I started... It hurt way more to read this than I thought it would...

Anyway...

I hope everyone here in Florida gets the rain they want...

[Aric Dunn]

Hey this thread is great..

but hey you can clearly see some possibly rotation(weak but definitely there considering yesterday there was 15kt easterly wind there.. in the florida straights. the overall curving structure to the cloud pattern has also become more noticeable to day.. i imagine it a only a matter of time now..


do a loop of the area http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html" target="_blank

oh yeah no big deal for the people that get it

[Aric Dunn]

or here ..http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

zoom in a little .. its very evident

[Aric Dunn]

Conditions at SANF1 as of
(1:00 pm EDT)
1700 GMT on 06/28/2007:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.03 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

nice north wind in Key west..

[Aric Dunn]

Very nice develops the low in the straits and brings it up the gulf stream

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

[Aric Dunn]

00z WRF
to add to the list of models developing it

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

['CaneFreak]

Looks like you are talking to yourself here Aric....Let me talk to ya a little....yep...forget it..its done...lack of convergence....sorry Aric...its done...LOL...

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like you are talking to yourself here Aric....Let me talk to ya a little....yep...forget it..its done...lack of convergence....sorry Aric...its done...LOL...

lol ... have a nice day..

[Aric Dunn]

oh yeah no big deal ..

[Derek Ortt]

have a look at the Indian Ocean for a real developing cyclone, not watch the cumulus clouds in the Bahamas

[Aric Dunn]

have a look at the Indian Ocean for a real developing cyclone, not watch the cumulus clouds in the Bahamas

seen many many times.. no need to look over there.. dont live there.. we have a least some! potential here..

['CaneFreak]

have a look at the Indian Ocean for a real developing cyclone, not watch the cumulus clouds in the Bahamas

Yeah...the fair weather cumulus clouds at that...LOL...

[wjs3]

Oh what the heck...

Aric,

Check this out. The North winds there at EYW look to be a real outlier...mesoanalysis from NWSFO MIA. I'm assuming this is some kind of a RUC analysis, though the north wind barb is there.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=Wind" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

Local effect???

Looks to have a broad low a bit to the north

...just doing this for sport...no big deal...

Thoughts?

WJS3

[Aric Dunn]

Oh what the heck...

Aric,

Check this out. The North winds there at EYW look to be a real outlier...mesoanalysis from NWSFO MIA. I'm assuming this is some kind of a RUC analysis, though the north wind barb is there.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=Wind" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

Local effect???

Looks to have a broad low a bit to the north

...just doing this for sport...no big deal...

Thoughts?

WJS3

interesting.. but the reports from the keys and the bouys in the area all have N or NE winds ... which would not place it north of the keys
but hey
yeah no big deal!!

well besides some local effects from t'storms i can only find N NNE NE with the exception of the eastern keys more towards mainland they have e to ese

[cpdaman]

Aric i'm with you bro at least as far as tracking almost nothing being more important that tracking a fish that wont even so much as bring waves (unlike atlantic fish) to florida. i will watch the indian or pacific if there is a landfall or unique situation there otherwise it doesn't intrest me that much.


as far as those models go they really dont develop anything till late friday nite and then show the low traveling NE out to sea south of carolinas (albeit slowly) by sunday. so it is more like something to check in with every few hours and see what's up but it's not going to be a 60 mph storm bearing down on west palm beach tonite.