No big deal [Florida straits]

[wjs3]

Yeah....you saw that 160 pop up at Sombrero Key, I take it? Long Key also didn't quite fit the pattern (N winds--350).

Check that Meso analysis out again. the 2pm data set is up at the same link. Broad low still depicted, further south.



WJS3

[Aric Dunn]

Aric i'm with you bro at least as far as tracking almost nothing being more important that tracking a fish that wont even so much as bring waves (unlike atlantic fish) to florida. i will watch the indian or pacific if there is a landfall or unique situation there otherwise it doesn't intrest me that much.


as far as those models go they really dont develop anything till late friday nite and then show the low traveling NE out to sea south of carolinas (albeit slowly) by sunday. so it is more like something to check in with every few hours and see what's up but it's not going to be a 60 mph storm bearing down on west palm beach tonite.

exactly.. its no big deal.. but something to watch .. that is close to home and has some potential .. i would say better than anything else recently.. because it should be around a while.. and the models are slowly starting to pick up on it ..

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah....you saw that 160 pop up at Sombrero Key, I take it? Long Key also didn't quite fit the pattern (N winds--350).

Check that Meso analysis out again. the 2pm data set is up at the same link. Broad low still depicted, further south.



WJS3

can you post that again ... the old link is not working!!

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah....you saw that 160 pop up at Sombrero Key, I take it? Long Key also didn't quite fit the pattern (N winds--350).

Check that Meso analysis out again. the 2pm data set is up at the same link. Broad low still depicted, further south.



WJS3

i think long key is better than the sombrero .. !! lol but yeah both are a little wacky. compared to the rest.. probably to local t'storms at the time of reporting

[cpdaman]

wjs3 on page 4 you say broad low to the north on this page you say to the south (which would seem to support Aric's possible perception that a low is starting to form down there.

what am i missing ( i'm not being sarcastic either)

[Aric Dunn]

key west radar clearly shows some rotation be it a temp thing or something more.. its there..
towards key west we have southerly motion to the storms and farther east we have northerly motion..

[Aric Dunn]

wjs3 on page 4 you say broad low to the north on this page you say to the south (which would seem to support Aric's possible perception that a low is starting to form down there.

what am i missing ( i'm not being sarcastic either)

i think it was a earlier analysis that had a low further north .. then he told me to look at the new 2pm which has it south where i think i see something.. but the link he posted is not working so i cant see the new update

[wjs3]

Sorry...

First, the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=Wind" target="_blank

Second, thanks for the question...
I meant to say that the low was now further south than the 1 PM analysis...it is still (as you can see) north of Key West.

I apologize, Cpdaman

Aric, to get to those meso pages, go to the NWS MIA site and click on meso analysis on the left.


WJS3

[cpdaman]

no problem thanks for helping me understand

ARIC on one hand i just watched TWC tropical update they said some models develop a weak low near n. bahamas and move it NE and slowly out to sea as it develops a bit.


on the other hand i saw a few circulations on radar this morning at 5 am and they were not low pressures so only time will tell

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry...

First, the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=Wind" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

Second, thanks for the question...
I meant to say that the low was now further south than the 1 PM analysis...it is still (as you can see) north of Key West.

I apologize, Cpdaman

Aric, to get to those meso pages, go to the NWS MIA site and click on meso analysis on the left.


WJS3

yeah there appears to be two separate areas of possible lows but i cant see further south to see if they are inbeded in a larger overall broad turning,, which i think it does but its hard to tell maybe at 3pm it will be more visible.. if that is a ruc analysis then we should see one every hour..

[Aric Dunn]

no problem thanks for helping me understand

ARIC on one hand i just watched TWC tropical update they said some models develop a weak low near n. bahamas and move it NE and slowly out to sea as it develops a bit.


on the other hand i saw a few circulations on radar this morning at 5 am and they were not low pressures so only time will tell

true.. there is nothing definitive .. but the fact that the easterlies that were blowing thru the straits have stopped and a genral broad turning has taken place i think it bears a little more monitoring.. you cant just write it off like some people have

no names!!

[Aric Dunn]

i mean close up visible .. you can see there is clearly much more curvature to the clouds especially coming of the florida west coast then bending to the south ...

[caneman]

Interesting West wind here. Perhaps storm contaminated though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

[caneman]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Look at the feature just West of Sarasote. May be reaching but could that be a low trying to develop?

[NDG]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes" target="_blank

Look at the feature just West of Sarasote. May be reaching but could that be a low trying to develop?

I don't see anything W of Sarasota.

[caneman]

Looked like a little swirl but just pulled up and the next frame not there.

[caneman]

At 3:00 at that buoy it is now a SE wind must have been rain/storm contaminated.

[Aric Dunn]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes" target="_blank

Look at the feature just West of Sarasote. May be reaching but could that be a low trying to develop?

I don't see anything W of Sarasota.

yeah not sure about there .. or anywhere . i cant pin point any specific area as of yet.. there is general turning from the straits to southern florida.. where a low center may form .. i leave to convection .and or over water .,.... need more time and see what will happen over the next 12 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting West wind here. Perhaps storm contaminated though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1" target="_blank

i imagine so... most of the flow is west to east up there i still say somewhere in the straits.. it just seems to have more of the dynamics going on

[wjs3]

Darn...lost a reply there...

Gotta run--the 3:30 AFD from the NWS EYW is out:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... KEY&max=51

I see troffiness, but not a low. I think the RUC (which I do believe those meso images are based on) is spinning a phantom closed low up.

WJS3