No big deal [Florida straits]

[Aric Dunn]

06 28 2:00 pm NNE 9 9 - - - - 30.02 -0.02 82.4 - - - - -
06 28 1:00 pm N 8 9 - - - - 30.03 +0.01 82.0 - - - - -
06 28 12:00 pm NNE 7 8 - - - - 30.04 +0.02 82.2 - - - - -
06 28 11:00 am NE 4 5 - - - - 30.04 +0.03 82.2 - - - - -
06 28 10:00 am ENE 6 6 - - - - 30.03 +0.01 83.3 - - - - -
06 28 9:00 am ENE 6 6 - - - - 30.02 +0.02 82.0 - - - - -
06 28 8:00 am NE 8 9 - - - - 30.01 +0.02 81.7 - - - - -
06 28 7:00 am ENE 9 11 - - - - 30.01 +0.01 81.1 - - - - -
06 28 6:00 am NE 6 7 - - - - 30.00 -0.01 80.6 - - - - -
06 28 5:00 am NE 5 5 - - - - 30.00 -0.04 79.3 - - - - -
06 28 4:00 am NE 18 19 - - - - 30.01 -0.04 79.7 - - - - -

there is a persistant nne to ne componet to the wind in key west over the past several hours well really since early in the morning hours.. most areas towards the west keys are NE to NNE which would put a LOW?? south over the straits

[NDG]

Interesting West wind here. Perhaps storm contaminated though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

i imagine so... most of the flow is west to east up there i still say somewhere in the straits.. it just seems to have more of the dynamics going on

Yeah, that west wind near Venice was convection outflow, I would not be looking for a west wind that far north & west, it will be towards the FL Straights.
Interesting conditions in Western Cuba, coastal winds are of a NW component today when yesterday were brisk easterly winds, inland winds are light and variable with a SW and westerly wind trying to develop, there is a defenite weak broad area of low pressure trying to get going near the FL straights.

[caneman]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LONF1

Whoa , take a look at this station in the Keys.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting West wind here. Perhaps storm contaminated though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

i imagine so... most of the flow is west to east up there i still say somewhere in the straits.. it just seems to have more of the dynamics going on

Yeah, that west wind near Venice was convection outflow, I would not be looking for a west wind that far north & west, it will be towards the FL Straights.
Interesting conditions in Western Cuba, coastal winds are of a NW component today when yesterday were brisk easterly winds, inland winds are light and variable with a SW and westerly wind trying to develop, there is a defenite weak broad area of low pressure trying to get going near the FL straights.

yeah i agree.. cuba is a hard place to get good reports from .. but it looks like the case.. there is some broad turning for sure

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LONF1" target="_blank

Whoa , take a look at this station in the Keys.

hmm,... local t'storm likely for the nw component but it has been ne for a good part of the day .. as for the pressure some of it due to normal daily pressure falls . but we will have to see if it falls more.. that will be the key signal to a low.. if we can get a lower pressure in the area that sticks

[Aric Dunn]

still nothing definitive. .but we will see

[NDG]

i imagine so... most of the flow is west to east up there i still say somewhere in the straits.. it just seems to have more of the dynamics going on

Yeah, that west wind near Venice was convection outflow, I would not be looking for a west wind that far north & west, it will be towards the FL Straights.
Interesting conditions in Western Cuba, coastal winds are of a NW component today when yesterday were brisk easterly winds, inland winds are light and variable with a SW and westerly wind trying to develop, there is a defenite weak broad area of low pressure trying to get going near the FL straights.

yeah i agree.. cuba is a hard place to get good reports from .. but it looks like the case.. there is some broad turning for sure

Also, my point is that the winds in western Cuba should had been a brisk ESE direction with the passage of the wave's trough axis, instead they have been light and variable with a northwesterly wind component trying to take place.

[Aric Dunn]

Also, my point is that the winds in western Cuba should had been a brisk ESE direction with the passage of the wave's trough axis, instead they have been light and variable with a northwesterly wind component trying to take place.[/quote]

agreed..

[cpdaman]

just got back from beach......nice afternoon afterall.

ARIC for you i just found this in the miami 330 ish discussion .AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FL STRAITS SE OF THE KEYS.

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

just got back from beach......nice afternoon afterall.

ARIC for you i just found this in the miami 330 ish discussion .AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FL STRAITS SE OF THE KEYS.

really.. what discussion.. miami

[Aric Dunn]

yeah look at that..

[Aric Dunn]

[jrod]

I can see the low on the satellite images, hopefully it will drop the much needed rain.

[miamicanes177]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Aric Dunn]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

blah blah .. yeah seen that before.,... many times.. slow development possible.. have to be on the safe side..

[caneman]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS
FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

All interpreatation. That doesn't rul out a TD or minimal TS and conditions could change tomorrow. This is standard procedure. Not saying anything wil ldevelop but alot of times these updates start out this way and then you have a system later on

[cpdaman]

i think it will depend on wether it tracks over water or land

also not favorable for SIGNIFICANT development does this mean it is favorable for slow development?

ARIC i can see it tomorrow, " based on surface data and satelite loops the low over the keys has become better organized and conditons appear a bit more favorable for slow development possibly into a depression in the next day or so"

[Aric Dunn]

i think it will depend on wether it tracks over water or land

also not favorable for SIGNIFICANT development does this mean it is favorable for slow development?

ARIC i can see it tomorrow, " based on surface data and satelite loops the low over the keys has become better organized and conditons appear a bit more favorable for slow development possibly into a depression in the next day or so"

yeah the blah blah... was for the people that see that then say its dead or over...

but yeah its going to take time.. still has a way to go.. i have seen models now taking west .. instead of north .. but we need to see what the models do what they are run with the low initialized.... at the 00z

[Weatherfreak14]

Tonight i expect some convection to build over the center and if the Upper level winds lax through the night, it might just become a TD. but i give this a 30% of happening.