Low level circ. @ 25N 55W

[tailgater]

Naked swirl alert!
It's in a lot of dry air right now. I don't know if conditions will remain unfavorable or not, maybe 1 of the pro mets could chime in?
It looks to moving WNW right now.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 1/vis0.gif

[tailgater]

Well it's getting into a area with more moisture but there's a lot shear out there also, it would have to fight through.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES0 ... a7I3ha.jpg

shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[tailgater]

I'm surprised there's been no mention of this little system yet. Guess they see all the shear it's headed into. does anyone have a good shear forecast?
Never mind I just looked at WV loop and if it doesn' t do it today it probably won't. It's headed for the teeth of a ULT. Guess that's why we don't see development in this region this time of year often.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES0 ... FHF7ya.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

actually there is some modest increase in convection this morning .. maybe something to watch if the trend continues. there is still a ULL in the area.. ssts are fine its only the dry air and ULL , shear.. but hey there is some convection with now.. so i'll watch it..

[tailgater]

Early morning visible loop shows fairly well define LLc that is being sheared alot. Check out this still and the shadow of T-storm near center is pretty cool.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... 60Yafe.jpg
or
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 1/vis0.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Interesting little feature. But like you say, alot of present and future Shear.

[skysummit]

Are you all talking about these....b/c there are 3 pretty close to each other. Pretty neat satellite feature.

[Cyclone1]

Whoa cool! Haven't seen anything like that before.

[tailgater]

[quote="skysummit"]Are you all talking about these....b/c there are 3 pretty close to each other. Pretty neat satellite feature.

[/quote

Hey yeah, I was talking about #1 and it's getting pound right now and I'll give it almost no chance at development since it"s turning more to the NW now and should stay in hostile conditions for it's remaining life span.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES2 ... To8qyG.jpg" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank
These swirls or eddies seem to be being kicked out by the ULL to the east every so often, is this rare? anyone.

[WindRunner]

Rare? Not really . . . for them to last this long? Yeah, kinda. #1 is actually a TD by definition, albeit sheared. It's just so small/sheared/weak/worthless, there's no point in mentioning it.

[Cyclone1]

No Point?! Of course it need to be recorded! Wake up NHC!

(If that really is a TD)

[WindRunner]

No Point?! Of course it need to be recorded! Wake up NHC!

(If that really is a TD)

Something that small . . . nahh, Beven really wrote it off this afternoon. If it ever gets out from underneath that shear, it may have a chance. Until then . . . just enjoy what you have, and that's a nice beautiful naked swirl with some high streamers quickly blowing over it

[Cyclone1]

No Point?! Of course it need to be recorded! Wake up NHC!

(If that really is a TD)

Something that small . . . nahh, Beven really wrote it off this afternoon. If it ever gets out from underneath that shear, it may have a chance. Until then . . . just enjoy what you have, and that's a nice beautiful naked swirl with some high streamers quickly blowing over it

Ok, but you should have never told me about how it was a TD by definition. Now I won't sleep tonight.

[WindRunner]

No Point?! Of course it need to be recorded! Wake up NHC!

(If that really is a TD)

Something that small . . . nahh, Beven really wrote it off this afternoon. If it ever gets out from underneath that shear, it may have a chance. Until then . . . just enjoy what you have, and that's a nice beautiful naked swirl with some high streamers quickly blowing over it

Ok, but you should have never told me about how it was a TD by definition. Now I won't sleep tonight.

Haha . . . it's not worth losing sleep over! It should still be there in the morning, anyway. Whether or not it has any convection is another matter. For now, it is still a TD, but it's just not anything the TPC would ever classify. Almost like what the IMD is pulling right now, but nowhere near as bad. Just know that there are several groups of people watching it in case anything does happen.

And anyway, the winds aren't enough to support a classification even if they wanted to. It'd be a rare sight to see advisories on a 20kt system . . .

[Cyclone1]

Haha . . . it's not worth losing sleep over! It should still be there in the morning, anyway. Whether or not it has any convection is another matter. For now, it is still a TD, but it's just not anything the TPC would ever classify. Almost like what the IMD is pulling right now, but nowhere near as bad. Just know that there are several groups of people watching it in case anything does happen.

And anyway, the winds aren't enough to support a classification even if they wanted to. It'd be a rare sight to see advisories on a 20kt system . . .

I guess you're right.

[littlevince]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

These three LLC are much more interesting then "95L". The one farthest to the west looks pretty good overall, but has to deal with 25-30 knot shear. Also water vapor shows a upper low close to it....Interesting system,,,in if it doe's form more convection to the center, it would not suprize me to see it named....

[windstorm99]

Interesting little feature...

[tailgater]

A little surprised this morning this system is holding together better than I thought it would. I have a question, what would this system be if it were in the GOM?
A Nothing, as it is now.
B Invest
C Invest with a plane to check it out.
D TD
E Weak sheared TS
I am not bashing the NHC at all! It will probably get picked by the front to the north or sit there drifting in less than ideal conditions.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 1/vis0.gif" target="_blank

[Nimbus]

The ULL is blowing this north over cooler SST's.

Is there any Quikscat evidence showing low level winds?