No big deal [Florida straits]

[Normandy]

No way this develops...do you guys see all the shear around this system?

[Eyewall]

No way this develops...do you guys see all the shear around this system?

seriously.. no chance at all
and i saw some posts about a TD maybe a TS?? naaa

[caneman]

Hmm, seems to me I remember the same thing being said about Barry. There is a reason that June only sees TD's and minimal TS's for the most part. Now lets see why is that? Could it be ULL's, cooler waters, shear, etc......to contend with? Not all systems will have near perfect conditions like in Aug or Sept.

[Eyewall]

Hmm, seems to me I remember the same thing being said about Barry. There is a reason that June only sees TD's and minimal TS's for the most part. Now lets see why is that? Could it be ULL's, cooler waters, shear, etc......to contend with? Not all systems will have near perfect conditions like in Aug or Sept.

Well from what i can see theres way too much shear and the low is forcast to move north over land in the next 24 hrs..
seeing that there is no convection over the center i'd say it won't develop in time

[jrod]

I give this a less than 1% chance of developing. All it is is the rainmaker that Florida needs.

[cpdaman]

good post cane man

[caneman]

I happen to agree there is only a small chance. However, it is greater than no chance as some have said. This time of year you expect less than favorable conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmm, seems to me I remember the same thing being said about Barry. There is a reason that June only sees TD's and minimal TS's for the most part. Now lets see why is that? Could it be ULL's, cooler waters, shear, etc......to contend with? Not all systems will have near perfect conditions like in Aug or Sept.

Well from what i can see theres way too much shear and the low is forcast to move north over land in the next 24 hrs..
seeing that there is no convection over the center i'd say it won't develop in time

well lets remember back.. barry .. 30 + shear .. TS .... we have 15 maybe 25 kt.. and we dont know where is going.. if the low gets more well defined .. it may not move that much north.. its still on the SW periphery of the ridge in the atlantic that would take it more west... then there is the trough........ well that is highly unlikely to make far enough to raelly pick it up so slow eratic motion is more likely..
so weaker more north stronger farther west

[Eyewall]

I happen to agree there is only a small chance. However, it is greater than no chance as some have said. This time of year you expect less than favorable conditions.

alright lets be realistic
obviously theres some chance.. as there is always a chance..
but when i say "no chance" that means that there is so small a chance that i can safely say that it will not happen.
is that better?

[tailgater]

Fals echos? check the showers wnw of Key West.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
now tell me what clouds that rains is falling from?
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES2 ... mqVjri.jpg" target="_blank" target="_blank"

[Aric Dunn]

for the people who know what im talking about.. you can laugh now.. because you can see what i mean

[SouthFloridawx]

Too bad nothing has come out of this yet, as I predicted SE Bahamas 26th to 28th.

Oh well, better luck next time.

[SouthFloridawx]

for the people who know what im talking about.. you can laugh now.. because you can see what i mean

You should let us in on your inside joke...

No one likes to be left out.

[Aric Dunn]

you cant just simply say one thing or the other .. without making your case.. and saying shear is not going to cut it.. i need to hear case with data and anything you can find that will help.. just saying it has no chance ,carries no weight and realistically makes who ever is saying it less believable ,i will not pay attention without at least some shred of good research into the matter

[Aric Dunn]

for the people who know what im talking about.. you can laugh now.. because you can see what i mean

You should let us in on your inside joke...

No one likes to be left out.

its plain as day.. and all around in this thread.. let me know when you get it

[Cyclone1]

That 30kt sheer* is forecast to move south in about 9 hours.


*sounds like the title for a weather related sitcom

[Aric Dunn]

and the truth is .. it does have a chance.. things change very quickly shear is strong now it may not be tomorrow and with a decently defined wave a low in the tropics everyone needs to watch it and look at all available data if you dont know what to look at then ask.. i ask all the time .. thats how you learn ..

[Aric Dunn]

Too bad nothing has come out of this yet, as I predicted SE Bahamas 26th to 28th.

Oh well, better luck next time.

that is ok .. because you learn everytime.. and thats what its all about... im still learning a lot but have been learning and watching the tropics for nearly 15 years .. which is not that long compared to sum but i have made it my point to learn and pay attention ..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the shear continues...then I guess this
disturbance/low is no big deal

[Aric Dunn]

see here is what im talking about if it gets a little bit better organized.. now given it looks like it was initialized a little east of where it maybe now.. the general direction is plausible

let me know which one work
1. http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/showforecast_22.php
2. http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_main.php when you try this one use the first pull down a select wind speeds