IMD fails to issue warnings on Cyclone 03B

[hurricanedude]

A very serious failure occurred on the part of India's Meteorological Department (IMD) yesterday, when they failed to provide adequate warnings for a devastating tropical cyclone that hit Pakistan. Cyclone 03B, which struck the coast of Pakistan at 02 GMT June 27, has killed at least 17 and left 250,000 homeless in that nation, according to early news reports. Under mandate from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), India is responsible for warning the shores of all nations along the North Indian Ocean, including Pakistan. Cyclone 03B was at least a strong tropical storm when it hit Pakistan, and was probably a Category 1 hurricane. Microwave satellite imagery near the time of landfall (Figure 1) shows a well-developed tropical cyclone with spiral banding and a cloud free eye. Yet IMD never even gave the storm a name, and merely classified it as a a "deep depression," with winds less than tropical storm force (39 mph). At 00 GMT June 26, two hours before landfall, the position of Cyclone 03B given by IMD was probably in error by at least 60 miles. One hour later, at 01 GMT, with landfall just one hour away, the IMD shipping advisory said that landfall was still 12 hours away. The IMD website, with the warnings, was offline and not available for approximately twelve hours beginning with the landfall period. It's important not to judge IMD before all the facts are known, but I can't fathom any excuse that can account for what appears, at best, to be criminal incompetence. I hope the WMO fully investigates this complete failure of India's Meteorological Department to protect the lives and welfare of those living along the Pakistani coast. Much more information on this dismaying story is presented in today's View From the Surface blog, which I have used to construct this short summary

[hurricanedude]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200706

[windstorm99]

Yes this a shame and in my opinion should be investigated.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'll scale down what I posted earlier.

In general, there is an animosity between India and Pakistan...
Now of course this could have been an honest mistake,
but the fact of animosity is intriguing.

[Derek Ortt]

They also have not upgraded the storm hitting their own coast. They are consistent... consistenty AWFUL


IMD, do the world a favor and fire Great One

[HurricaneRobert]

Regardless, it's probably time to establish a new RSMC in Oman whose area of responsibility is the Arabian Sea immediately west of India (or possibly including part of Gujarat). Does JMA have the same problem? They're not exactly friends with a lot of countries under their responsibility. They even live under serious nuclear threats from a couple of them.

[wxmann_91]

It's too bad the animosity between India and Pakistan still exists. That sucks. (History lesson: After the British granted India independence, there was hatred between Hindus and Muslims, which led to a civil war. The end result: the areas with a higher concentration of Hindus remained India, while the areas with a higher concentration of Muslims became Pakistan [this included west Pakistan, which is Pakistan today, and east Pakistan, which is Bangladesh today].)

Robert, I do not think JMA has the same problem with countries w/ nuclear weapons, considering North Korea gets hit by typhoons very rarely (the waters surrounding N Korea are very cold).

[Chacor]

It is ridiculous to lay all the blame like that. India's western coast was affected too. It may be that they honestly did not analyse it beyond deep depression strength.

More was covered in the Indian Ocean thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=95481&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=80

[yzerfan]

And the Americans and Cubans work together on weather issues in the Atlantic Basin even though relations between the countries are otherwise strained.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

After a second look,
It's likely this was an honest mistake...but it was
a mistake that was egregious...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Chacor, it is also good to make sure science is being fellowed; intstead of hate of said nation comes into play when upgrading cycloens. There is no question that 03b was 50+ knots at the least, and maybe 65 knots. It is not good to stick up for "wrong" information-forecast, because if you do that then wrong will get worst. In if allowed many more will die. IMD is blowing it big time in my option...In no its not greatone forecasting, because if he was forecasting this would be 100 knots instead of not even a tropical storm.

[Chacor]

The IMD have gone with 30kts on the current storm too. It is very likely that their analyses never showed a strong cyclone in either case (despite what satellite imagery clearly told them). My point is, India was affected by the cyclone too. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO NEED TO POLITICISE THIS.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I would say 80 mph category 1 hurricane near
landfall...Arabic sea has had a very bad season this
year

And my statement of windspeed is judging by the
appearance of the system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The IMD have gone with 30kts on the current storm too. It is very likely that their analyses never showed a strong cyclone in either case (despite what satellite imagery clearly told them). My point is, India was affected by the cyclone too. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO NEED TO POLITICISE THIS.

I'm not going to attack, but feel like it. But the system was clearly near 50-70 knots...In this is not Politicising nothing, this is just stating the fact. Show me data that shows that this system was a "depression"...I don't understand why you are fellowing them blindly like this instead of looking at data and satellite to make your own thoughts of it.

[Chacor]

I personally think it was a 65-kt hurricane-strength system. But the IMD is the RSMC so what they analyse goes.

I've got my own problems with Jeff Masters' summary. He clearly doesn't CHECK advisory times. The 1 am GMT shipping advisory referred to, for example, was active for 1800 GMT the previous day.

WTIN01 DEMS 260100

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HOURS. FROM 26/06/ 2007 0100 UTC 26 JUNE 2007

PART -I : THE DEEP DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA
NOW LIES CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY THE 25TH
JUNE 2007 NEAR LAT. 24.2 DEG N/LONG 66.3 DEG E
ABOUT 250 KMS WNW OF NALIYA (.) SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
INTENSIFIED FURTHER AND MOVE WNW-LY DIRECTION AND
CROSS PAK COAST BETWEEN 62.0 DEG E AND 63.0 DEG.E BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING (.)

NOTE:-NEXT SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL ORIGINATE AT 1200 UTC ON THE
DATE 26/6/07 IN ADDITION TO ROUTINE TO BULLETINS (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I will avoid politicizing this and consider it a
meteorological mistake...

[Ptarmigan]

That is a really untenable sitauation they have in India and Pakistan.

[Chacor]

Also,

"At 00 GMT June 26, two hours before landfall, the position of Cyclone 03B given by IMD was probably in error by at least 60 miles."

The IMD gives ALL their positions to the nearest half-degree! JTWC: 25.1N 65.2E. IMD: 24N, 65E.

[KatDaddy]

If this downfall in forecasting is truly a political issue the world is in a decline. In my eyes India had the responsibilty to warn Pakistan but did not......due to the hatred between the counties. Someone prove me wrong with my viewpoint.

[Chacor]

WHERE IS THE PROOF THAT THEY DID NOT WARN BECAUSE OF THEIR HISTORY? THEY WERE AFFECTED BY IT THEMSELVES. STOP POLITICISING THE MATTER.