No big deal [Florida straits]

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html" target="_blank

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... slp&loop=1

[Air Force Met]

Hmm, seems to me I remember the same thing being said about Barry. There is a reason that June only sees TD's and minimal TS's for the most part. Now lets see why is that? Could it be ULL's, cooler waters, shear, etc......to contend with? Not all systems will have near perfect conditions like in Aug or Sept.

Well from what i can see theres way too much shear and the low is forcast to move north over land in the next 24 hrs..
seeing that there is no convection over the center i'd say it won't develop in time

And Barry was moving with the shear...and being baroclinically enhanced. This rag-tag is moving against the shear...and not being baroclinically enhanced. There is 35 kts of death blowing over the top of this thing from the wrong direction. Until something changes...

Yeah...to much shear. Plus the vorticity looks to move NW over land in the next day or so.

You never say never...but you can say not right now.

[Cyclone1]

Oh, That 30kt sheer! *audience laughs*


(unsure what this post came from? Look back on Pg 7.)

[Aric Dunn]

Hmm, seems to me I remember the same thing being said about Barry. There is a reason that June only sees TD's and minimal TS's for the most part. Now lets see why is that? Could it be ULL's, cooler waters, shear, etc......to contend with? Not all systems will have near perfect conditions like in Aug or Sept.

Well from what i can see theres way too much shear and the low is forcast to move north over land in the next 24 hrs..
seeing that there is no convection over the center i'd say it won't develop in time

And Barry was moving with the shear...and being baroclinically enhanced. This rag-tag is moving against the shear...and not being baroclinically enhanced. There is 35 kts of death blowing over the top of this thing from the wrong direction. Until something changes...

Yeah...to much shear. Plus the vorticity looks to move NW over land in the next day or so.

You never say never...but you can say not right now.

exactly... never said right now.... said it would need time .. whole discussion today for me was just watching the signs of something maybe trying to get going

[windstorm99]

Here are some loops on the area...



1km visible loop

[caneman]

I agree not right now, lets see what the next day or two holds though. I know how Barry formed and the dynamics that supported it. You see it time and again this time of year yet so many get tricked on this - even the experts I might add got fooled on Barry and other storms like it even though they saw or see the set up taking place.. I see it all the time. Why, people look for near perfect conditions. A tropical system doesn't have to develop from near perfect conditions. And this may never develop. However, even just a depression or lopsided sheared minimal TS is still a tropcal cyclone.

[Aric Dunn]

i still going to say to watch the se Gulf tomorrow.. west of key west .. for some sort of a center to take shape .. it still may be sheared. but i will watch it..

[Aric Dunn]

I agree not right now, lets see what the next day or two holds though. I know how Barry formed and the dynamics that supported it. You see it time and again this time of year yet so many get tricked on this - even the experts I might add got fooled on Barry and other storms like it even though they saw or see the set up taking place.. I see it all the time. Why, people look for near perfect conditions. A tropical system doesn't have to develop from near perfect conditions. And this may never develop. However, even just a depression or lopsided sheared minimal TS is still a tropcal cyclone.

could not have said it better myself

[Cyclone1]

i still going to say to watch the se Gulf tomorrow.. west of key west .. for some sort of a center to take shape .. it still may be sheared. but i will watch it..

I agree. That's the area to watch.

[windstorm99]

The next pending trough of low pressure moving into the southeast will keep rain chances on the high side across florida as the weak area of low pressure moves of to the NE in time.Adrian

[Aric Dunn]

watch the near key west over the next several hours for a more pronounced low ... i may be seeing some signs right now but will have to wait cant tell for sure.. i will make and update in a hour or two ..

[Nimbus]

The surface pressure at the buoys usually starts to Yo Yo just before the convection blossoms. It will take some time for the shear to relax so that is probably why the NHC was saying slow.

[flwxwatcher]

The surface pressure at the buoys usually starts to Yo Yo just before the convection blossoms. It will take some time for the shear to relax so that is probably why the NHC was saying slow.

Yes.. the shear and the fact the weak low looks to be inland like AFM said in about a day. Looks like a nice rainmaker though for Florida the next few days .:)

[cpdaman]

AFM which direction do you think the shear will come from tomorrow , still out of the SW?


and yes relative shear i think is the most important factor when talking about shear.

this weak low is drifting northward and then NE so this is not really directly against the shear but if the shear turns to out of the south direction to match the storms northerly movement it could be more intresting if the shear turns to a movement out of the northwest then this thing will have no shot IMO

[Aric Dunn]

AFM which direction do you think the shear will come from tomorrow , still out of the SW?


and yes relative shear i think is the most important factor when talking about shear.

this weak low is drifting northward and then NE so this is not really directly against the shear but if the shear turns to out of the south direction to match the storms northerly movement it could be more intresting if the shear turns to a movement out of the northwest then this thing will have no shot IMO

actually its more west than it was earlier... watch west of key west.. tonight..that is where we will see a more defined low ...
.
as for a north motion i starting to tend away from it and with the WRF model... witch has a west motion then slows it down...

[ronjon]

AD, looks like a weak surafce low viewing the Key West Radar - its broad and centered near KW now. Its devoid of convection which isn't a good sign for development. The ULL over the GOM is moving away and an Upper Level Anticyclone over the caribbean may build northward over the SE GOM tomorrow which may lessen shear conditions. If anything were to develop it would hug the coast and move inland at some point as it feels the upper trough to the north. I will say water temps are mighty warm in this area though.

[flwxwatcher]

Excerpt from Key West AFD

000
FXUS62 KKEY 290127
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OR WAVE IS CURRENTLY IN OUR AREA.
JUDGING FROM SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS THE AXIS APPEARS TO BE
PERHAPS SOMEWHERE SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...HOWEVER
EXTREMELY LOW WIND SPEEDS MAKE A DEFINITIVE LOCATION OF THE AXIS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST. REGARDLESS...WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE ISLANDS AND
AT THE CMAN STATIONS ON THE REEF ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BUT FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST ON WATERS WEST
AND SOUTH OF KEY WEST. THE KEY WEST EVENING RAOB SHOWS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS (WITH A LOT OF ZEROES) UP TO NEARLY 10 KFT AGL...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THAT. THERE ARE NO WINDS GREATER
THAN 5 KNOTS BELOW 18 KFT...AND NO WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOVE 26 KFT. THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH A
PWAT OF 2.08 INCHES...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
KEYS...WHERE MIAMI RADAR INDICATES THAT UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LAST THREE HOURS. OUR RADAR
ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE STRAITS AND AROUND
THE MIDDLE KEYS.

[Cyclone1]

Well its a sfc low, all it needs is convection and maybe we'll get an INVEST.

[windstorm99]

I think some of this rain will finally make it onshore...

NWS-Miami evening update.

.UPDATE...A WEAK LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
THIS LOW GOT SEPARATED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE TODAY WHICH CAUSED
LOW LEVEL SURFACE DIVERGENCE NORTH OF THE EXTREME SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WAS THE REASON FOR THE
LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE
AND LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. MUCH OF THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
METRO AREAS TONIGHT. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH THE HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE, LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS AND A REPORT OF A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD EARLIER, IS THE
REASON FOR INCREASED AWARENESS OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT AND THE HWO
WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the low is right over key west !!