Underestimated and overestimated storms

[CrazyC83]

What old storms do you think were underestimated or overestimated due to the lack of technology? Here are some of mine:

Underestimated:

Janet 1955 (I think it was in the 900-905 range at peak)
Carrie 1957 (I think it was around 920 and a Cat 5)
Carla 1961 (I think it was in the 905-910 range at peak, and around 922 at landfall)
Cleo 1964 (It was way lower than 950 - after all it was nearly Cat 5 - I'd say around 930 considering its location)
Betsy 1965 (in the Gulf I think it was around 920)
Camille 1969 (I think it was around 895 in the open waters)
David 1979 (I think it was in the 910-915 range in the Caribbean)

Overestimated:

Galveston 1900 (I think it was a Cat 3 at landfall but pressure correct)
Audrey 1957 (although that has been somewhat proven)
Ethel 1960 (it was NOT a Cat 5, there is no way it can go up and down that fast)
Camille 1969 (at landfall I think it weakened to a low-end Cat 5 or high Cat 4, but not 190mph)

[Cyclone1]

These are my observations and are completely unnofficial.

Overestimated:
Ethel 1960 (I believe it was 975mbar, 110mph TOPS)
Gilbert 1980 (Didn't become a category four before its last landfall Strong cat 3)
Michael 2000 (Extratropical as a category two)

Underestimated:
Camille 1969 (Dipped into the 890's, lowest pressure of 905 was recorded far from top windspeed.)
Floyd 1999 (I'm going with brief category 5)
Isidore 2002 (Category four for one advisory)

That's all I got.

[Opal storm]

Camille 1969 (at landfall I think it weakened to a low-end Cat 5 or high Cat 4, but not 190mph)

I definitely agree with that one, the NGOM just can't support a storm of that magnitude. If Camille occured today, it would most likely be a cat 3/4 at landfall.

[Cyclone1]

Camille 1969 (at landfall I think it weakened to a low-end Cat 5 or high Cat 4, but not 190mph)

I definitely agree with that one, the NGOM just can't support a storm of that magnitude. If Camille occured today, it would most likely be a cat 3/4 at landfall.

Well, you gotta look at the record books too. Gusts of over 200mph were recorded at landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Camille 1969 (at landfall I think it weakened to a low-end Cat 5 or high Cat 4, but not 190mph)

I definitely agree with that one, the NGOM just can't support a storm of that magnitude. If Camille occured today, it would most likely be a cat 3/4 at landfall.

Camille was much smaller than Katrina though, which made it less susceptible to dry air or thermal changes (kinda like Charley). I don't disagree with the 909 pressure (maybe a bit less, like in the mid-910s) but the wind estimate of 190 mph is way too high. My personal guess for Camille's landfall: 160 mph/912mb.

[Cyclenall]

Here are mine:

Overestimated:

Ethel (1960)
Camille (1969)
Audrey (1957) (Landfall strength)
Hurricane Kristy (2006 Epac) (Near the end of it's life, some strength estimates were maybe too high)
Super Typhoon #15 (1958 Wpac) (Peak winds were 175 knots for 24 hours?)
Super Typhoon #18 (1961 Wpac) (Peak winds at 185 knots??!?! ) (Sounds like the windspeed Tip would be at)
Super Typhoon #23 (1961 Wpac) (Peak winds at 180 knots, too high??)

Underestimated:

Hurricane Daniel (2006 Epac) (Peak strength in open waters was higher)
Hurricane Sergio (2006 Epac) (It was briefly a CAT3 hurricane for a few hours)
Invest 92E (2007 Epac) (Later became TD3-E) (I think it could have easily been a TD while still an Invest but there was no QUICKSCAT passes to confirm (they missed))

[Stratosphere747]

Camille 1969 (at landfall I think it weakened to a low-end Cat 5 or high Cat 4, but not 190mph)

I definitely agree with that one, the NGOM just can't support a storm of that magnitude. If Camille occured today, it would most likely be a cat 3/4 at landfall.

Well, you gotta look at the record books too. Gusts of over 200mph were recorded at landfall.

Incorrect....

[Stratosphere747]

Camille 1969 (at landfall I think it weakened to a low-end Cat 5 or high Cat 4, but not 190mph)

I definitely agree with that one, the NGOM just can't support a storm of that magnitude. If Camille occured today, it would most likely be a cat 3/4 at landfall.

Camille was much smaller than Katrina though, which made it less susceptible to dry air or thermal changes (kinda like Charley). I don't disagree with the 909 pressure (maybe a bit less, like in the mid-910s) but the wind estimate of 190 mph is way too high. My personal guess for Camille's landfall: 160 mph/912mb.

Crazy,

You are talking about the estimate of winds gusting to 190, and not sustained, correct?

[terstorm1012]

The Reanalysis Project is in the process of redoing a lot of the best tracks for these storms. You may find that they've already redone the storms listed

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/index.html

[Category 5]

Overestimated, one word, ETHEL. If that was a category 5, then the Greensburg tornado was an EF-0.

[Cyclone1]

Incorrect....

Er... really? I head that from the Discovery Channel. Raging planet I believe. I don't know I don't have proof to back up my statement, all I know is, Camille was a strong category five at landfall. No doubt in my mind.

[Berwick Bay]

OVERESTIMATED JEANNE 2004 in Fl--supposed to be a Cat 3 at landfall, but damage nothing of that magnitude,
Also -DENNIS 2005 FL PANHANDLE--BILLED AS A CAT 4 for a time in the Gulf in July?? damage near Navarre Beach, nothing of that magnitude. Damage more akin to Cat 1,.

UNDERESTIMATED--HUGO 1989 South Carolina. Okay, you might say how could it be? This Cat 4 Storm (of the large variety) became lost in Andrew's shadow. Yet the destruction and property damage of 100 miles inland show that this storm was a definite "biggie".
Also-Eloise 1975--Not very well known but a legit Cat 3 along the Fl panhandle. For some reason lost in the shuffle with Opal and Ivan. But this storm came in with 125-130 mph winds and inflicted serious damage near Panama City, yet is hardly remembered today.

[Derek Ortt]

Navarre Beach received cat 1 like damage from Dennis because it received cat 1 winds (and there was not exactly much to damage)

The cat 3 winds hit Milton

[Noles2006]

Disagree with you on Dennis, Berwick...

The surge extended hundreds of miles to the east... a 12' surge was experienced along Apalachee Bay causing quite a bit of damage to the forgotten coast...

[HurricaneBill]

Also-Eloise 1975--Not very well known but a legit Cat 3 along the Fl panhandle. For some reason lost in the shuffle with Opal and Ivan. But this storm came in with 125-130 mph winds and inflicted serious damage near Panama City, yet is hardly remembered today.

Actually, Eloise was a wake-up call to the Florida panhandle. It had not seen a major hurricane landfall in over 75 years. Also, unlike recent Gulf hurricanes, Eloise struck as a strengthening Category 3.

[Hurricania]

Tropical cyclone Gonu was really under-estimated by the Omani's. Being from the UAE and knowing many people from Oman, I called one good friend to warn and tell him to prepare for it but he was like:"It isn't a big deal, just a silly storm". It was probably under-estimated given the fact that Omani's never experienced such a hurricane.

[docjoe]

Navarre Beach received cat 1 like damage from Dennis because it received cat 1 winds (and there was not exactly much to damage)

The cat 3 winds hit Milton

The eyewall of Dennis passed right over my house in Milton. There is no doubt that we had markedly stronger sustained winds and higher gusts with Dennis than with Ivan. 2 things kept Dennis from being worse for us than it was. First it was a short lived storm as it passed through. Secondly Ivan had taken thousands of trees just 10 months earlier. I think this minimized damage somewhat. Dennis was overlooked to a degree in 2005(rightly so when compared to Katrina, Rita, and Wilma) most likely due to its hitting a reasonably unpopulated area and the fact that it missed the larger communities in the area such as Pensacola and Ft. Walton/Destin. Rest assured that it was a very significant event for our town and county and people are still recovering. Heck I have a dumpster in my yard right now to haul off yet more dead trees that I just had taken out due to the storm.In regards to Navarre Derek is right....there wasnt much left to be damaged. Ivan did a thorough job there.

docjoe

[Berwick Bay]

Derek said this

Navarre Beach received cat 1 like damage from Dennis because it received cat 1 winds (and there was not exactly much to damage)

The cat 3 winds hit Milton

Derek, or Docjoe, where exactly is Milton relative to Navarre or Destin? Okay, so you are saying there was an area that received major hurricane conditions occuring with the passage of Dennis. No disrespect at all to the good people of Milton, just seems like we shouldn't have to look that hard to find evidence of major hurricane passage. Now Noles, brings up a strong point with the surge, the fact that it was very significant and many miles to the east. That is memorable. In the long run, I just don't think that Dennis 05 is going to be one of those storms talked very much about in Fl History. And I don't think that can be attributed solely to the Katrina 05 factor.

[Berwick Bay]

Hurricane Bill said this

Actually, Eloise was a wake-up call to the Florida panhandle. It had not seen a major hurricane landfall in over 75 years. Also, unlike recent Gulf hurricanes, Eloise struck as a strengthening Category 3.

Bill, 75 years since major landfall in the panhandle! Isn't that amazing?? Talk about cycles. Who today would imagine such a long period without a major storm in that area? BTW I don't doubt your premise that Eloise was a wake-up call for the panhandle in '75. But she is hardly remembered or talked about today. As a comparison, Frederick made landfall near Dauphin Island in '79, and is very strongly remembered and spoken of by people in that area, but Eloise is a name rarely mentioned, and she occured only four years before Frederick.

[docjoe]

Derek said this

Navarre Beach received cat 1 like damage from Dennis because it received cat 1 winds (and there was not exactly much to damage)

The cat 3 winds hit Milton

Derek, or Docjoe, where exactly is Milton relative to Navarre or Destin? Okay, so you are saying there was an area that received major hurricane conditions occuring with the passage of Dennis. No disrespect at all to the good people of Milton, just seems like we shouldn't have to look that hard to find evidence of major hurricane passage. Now Noles, brings up a strong point with the surge, the fact that it was very significant and many miles to the east. That is memorable. In the long run, I just don't think that Dennis 05 is going to be one of those storms talked very much about in Fl History. And I don't think that can be attributed solely to the Katrina 05 factor.

Milton is in Santa Rosa County roughly 10-12 miles inland as the crow flies. It is NE of Pensacola and NNW of Navarre. It sits at the head of Blackwater Bay which is an extension of East Bay and part of the larger Pensacola Bay system. 2 years ago there was quite a bit of evidence. It was in a narrow path and in my opinion underreported. The majority of the news stories were about how Pensacola was spared a repeat of Ivan and not on the damage in a relatively undeveloped county. I am assuming you were not here to see it as you do not know where Milton is. We really are not interested as to how prevalent it will be in FL hurricane history. Whether or not someone believes we had Cat 2 or Cat 3 is irrelevant to us at this point. It was a landfalling major hurricane that hit an area that was already reeling and added salt to an open wound. We took our licks and continue to rebuild and are moving on. I will leave it to others to question if it was bad or not.

docjoe