Ex Invest 95L

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

Here we go.Post away.

[cpdaman]

ooh crap sorry i could not find anything more to say and for breakfast ARIC will be handing out some crow

[cycloneye]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 291254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC FRI JUN 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20070629 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070629 1200 070630 0000 070630 1200 070701 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 80.7W 27.1N 81.4W 27.7N 81.9W 27.8N 81.8W
BAMD 26.3N 80.7W 27.4N 79.9W 28.0N 78.9W 28.8N 77.6W
BAMM 26.3N 80.7W 27.1N 80.7W 27.6N 80.7W 28.0N 79.9W
LBAR 26.3N 80.7W 27.4N 80.4W 28.3N 79.6W 28.9N 78.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070701 1200 070702 1200 070703 1200 070704 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.9N 81.6W 28.0N 79.0W 28.4N 77.0W 29.1N 76.4W
BAMD 29.8N 75.5W 33.5N 65.1W 42.0N 50.7W 51.5N 37.9W
BAMM 28.4N 78.6W 29.5N 73.3W 31.2N 63.8W 34.0N 54.5W
LBAR 29.6N 76.5W 31.7N 70.0W 40.4N 56.4W 46.9N 51.9W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 37KTS 26KTS
DSHP 37KTS 43KTS 40KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.3N LONCUR = 80.7W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 24.7N LONM12 = 81.5W DIRM12 = 345DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 24.3N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN




The first tropical model plots for 95L.Graphic not yet available.

[Berwick Bay]

Okay I need help with the info. That site just looks like a "maze" to me. Is there a developing center? Where exactly. My first hunch would be further south along the SE Coast. As for projected movement, my guess would be an E drift right now. But what exactly does the info say. Your help is appreciated.

[cpdaman]

is this just east of boca? check that yes indeed i'm gonna take a walk out to da beach give a looksie

[Berwick Bay]

Okay, just read some of the lat-long projected positions according to BAMM. Looks to be a projected NNE movement.

[caneman]

Hmmm, can I be the first to say "this will never devlop" Sorry, had to do that.

[cpdaman]

berwick it is at 26.3 north and i know lakeworth is 26.7 so i would think somewhere around northern broward county/ palm beach line about 50 miles east

sheer is out of the W at upper levels around 25

i have no idea which way it is moving maybe NNE then NE very slowly shear will be an issue

[cycloneye]

Okay I need help with the info. That site just looks like a "maze" to me. Is there a developing center? Where exactly. My first hunch would be further south along the SE Coast. As for projected movement, my guess would be an E drift right now. But what exactly does the info say. Your help is appreciated.

26.3n-80.7w is the position that the tropical models have in the initial run at 12:00z.Pressure is way up there,1015 mbs.So if it wants to develop,the pressure has to drop a bit more maybe to 1006 mbs.

[caneman]

By the way, Good job on this Aric!

[Berwick Bay]

Is this Aric's baby?

[skysummit]

I know it hasn't happened yet, but so far the Canadian is winning again.

[x-y-no]

I'm not impressed.

The weak low is centered off the SW coast and all the convection is off the east coast. Upper air conditions are hostile.

Plenty of rain for us, but that's all.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't get too excited. Looks like the NHC is just bored and doing some practice. Chances of development are quite remote. As an indicator, the recon POD just came out. Note the "NEGATIVE" recon requirements. Just some rain for FL, that's all.

NOUS42 KNHC 291330

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 29 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Berwick Bay]

WXMAN hard not to get excited. This is a tropical message board, and there's been darn little to talk about now for weeks. It may not be much, but heck, there is an invest.

[cpdaman]

bored and practice yippie

you must be asking yourself why this nonsense always occurs before the weekend

[flwxwatcher]

I wouldn't get too excited. Looks like the NHC is just bored and doing some practice. Chances of development are quite remote. As an indicator, the recon POD just came out. Note the "NEGATIVE" recon requirements. Just some rain for FL, that's all.

NOUS42 KNHC 291330

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 29 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

WXman57.. I would have to agree with you on this.. Latest SFC Obs from Florida don't point to a low forming right off the East Coast at the moment.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... SUS42.KTBW" target="_blank

[Noah]

This is rain for the east coast of fl right?

[cpdaman]

to me it looks like the LOW appears to be

more elongated to the north and west note the low clouds streaming westward to the north of the lake
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html


SST are around 84 off boca

[wxman57]

NHC did amend their POD, but chances of development still look slim. Location is presently about 30 miles south of Lake Okeechobee. Pressures are relatively high there and shear is currently strong.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT FRI 29 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-037 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 29.0N 79.0W AT 01/1800Z.....ADDED

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP