Underestimated and overestimated storms

[Derek Ortt]

Milton is just west of Navarre

The RMW of Dennis was extremely small. To say that Dennis was a cat 1 because Navarre received cat 1 winds is to say Charley was a tropical storm because Ft Meyers received TS winds

[Berwick Bay]

Derek, I never said Dennis was a Cat 1. Just that an area pretty darn close to the center Navarre only received Cat 1 conditions. Sometimes I think the numbers actually can cloud an overall view. Here's the crux. A major hurricane makes landfall along a reasonably well populated stretch of beach, and yet we have to strain to look and find evidence along that stretch for evidence of that magnitude of storm. I don't think small size explains it all. I think that if Charley had made landfall in that area, (even with its small size), you wouldn't have to go looking to find a swath of destruction. Its very unlikely that this storm will be remembered very much in the overall scheme of things. And I don't think small size, or lack of pop along that area of beach explains it all either. The one exception would be the surge conditions which occured many miles to the east of actual landfall.

[wxman57]

If you take a look at the final HRD post-storm wind analysis for Dennis and Ivan, you can see that size was most definitely the major difference between Dennis and Ivan. Ivan was actually weaker than Dennis at landfall, perhaps not even a Cat 3 according to post-storm wind analysis by the HRD. But Ivan had hurricane-force winds from west of Mobile Bay to well east of Pensacola. And Ivan carried a large area of Cat 2 winds inland. Dennis, on the other hand, produced a very narrow swath of hurricane force winds inland, and only a few tiny spots of Cat 2 winds over land. But look at Dennis's winds over the water, clearly a large area of Cat 3 winds at landfall. But Cat 3 winds over water do not translate to Cat 3 winds inland. Surface friction quickly drops those winds by a SS category or two:

[Ptarmigan]

Here are mine:

Overestimated:

Ethel (1960)
Camille (1969)
Audrey (1957) (Landfall strength)
Hurricane Kristy (2006 Epac) (Near the end of it's life, some strength estimates were maybe too high)
Super Typhoon #15 (1958 Wpac) (Peak winds were 175 knots for 24 hours?)
Super Typhoon #18 (1961 Wpac) (Peak winds at 185 knots??!?! ) (Sounds like the windspeed Tip would be at)
Super Typhoon #23 (1961 Wpac) (Peak winds at 180 knots, too high??)

Underestimated:

Hurricane Daniel (2006 Epac) (Peak strength in open waters was higher)
Hurricane Sergio (2006 Epac) (It was briefly a CAT3 hurricane for a few hours)
Invest 92E (2007 Epac) (Later became TD3-E) (I think it could have easily been a TD while still an Invest but there was no QUICKSCAT passes to confirm (they missed))

Nancy was STY 18 and had 215 mph and 888 millibars. A typhoon would have to have even lower pressure to support that wind, unless Nancy was a small typhoon. 888 mb is 190 mph in the Atlantic or 160 mph in West Pacific.

[Ptarmigan]

Milton is just west of Navarre

The RMW of Dennis was extremely small. To say that Dennis was a cat 1 because Navarre received cat 1 winds is to say Charley was a tropical storm because Ft Meyers received TS winds

Dennis had large swath of TS winds. Hurricane force winds for Dennis was up to 45 miles.

[wxman57]

Milton is just west of Navarre

The RMW of Dennis was extremely small. To say that Dennis was a cat 1 because Navarre received cat 1 winds is to say Charley was a tropical storm because Ft Meyers received TS winds

Dennis had large swath of TS winds. Hurricane force winds for Dennis was up to 45 miles.

For the record, Dennis had a diameter of TS force winds of about 230 nautical miles at landfall, Ivan's was 370 nautical miles across. Dennis's hurricane-force winds were 40 nm across at landfall, Ivan's were 160 nm across. Dennis's winds were a bit stronger at landfall according to post-storm analysis, but Ivan was huge. Size matters greatly.

[Ptarmigan]

For the record, Dennis had a diameter of TS force winds of about 230 nautical miles at landfall, Ivan's was 370 nautical miles across. Dennis's hurricane-force winds were 40 nm across at landfall, Ivan's were 160 nm across. Dennis's winds were a bit stronger at landfall according to post-storm analysis, but Ivan was huge. Size matters greatly.

Being under a large hurricane would be a nightmare tantamount to torture. One would have to endure howling winds, heavy rain, and high storm surge.

[Berwick Bay]

So I return to the basic point. Dennis will not be well remembered. You see technically it will retain its major hurricane classification (thats what the numbers say). But as a storm of impact and substance upon coastal America, it is very forgettable. In that regard it was a VERY overrated storm.

[JTD]

It was bad enough as many many members of our storm2k community have unfortunately devasting first hand experience of, but Katrina was an over-estimated storm as well.

[Opal storm]

That big northerly jog Dennis took just prior to landfall really saved Pensacola, had it made landfall about 20 miles to the west it would've been another Ivan-like devestation to the city. The worst of Dennis mostly hit the "woods" of Santa Rosa county. I was quite surprised at the damage in East Milton after Dennis.

[Derek Ortt]

I think Pensacola would have been hit far worse from Dennis, had it not have wobbled that it was for Ivan

Cat 2 or 3 winds would have moved into the center of the city, unlike the cat 1 with Ivan

[CrazyC83]

So I return to the basic point. Dennis will not be well remembered. You see technically it will retain its major hurricane classification (thats what the numbers say). But as a storm of impact and substance upon coastal America, it is very forgettable. In that regard it was a VERY overrated storm.

Dennis was extremely destructive in Cuba though...

[Ivanhater]

I think speed is another big factor...Ivan was a fat slow storm that lasted allllll night...Ivan also kept reforming its eastern eyewall over Pensacola, as with Dennis it was over within and hour or so...

[Berwick Bay]

"over within an hour", you said a lot there Ivan in regards to Dennis. You know I never told you that I liked your name "Ivanhater". I'll bet you never even considered being a "Dennishater"!

[Ivanhater]

"over within an hour", you said a lot there Ivan in regards to Dennis. You know I never told you that I liked your name "Ivanhater". I'll bet you never even considered being a "Dennishater"!

Lol..Im a Dennishater too...but in relation to Ivan...Dennis was a fast mover which limited his potential...

[Cyclenall]

Here are mine:

Overestimated:

Ethel (1960)
Camille (1969)
Audrey (1957) (Landfall strength)
Hurricane Kristy (2006 Epac) (Near the end of it's life, some strength estimates were maybe too high)
Super Typhoon #15 (1958 Wpac) (Peak winds were 175 knots for 24 hours?)
Super Typhoon #18 (1961 Wpac) (Peak winds at 185 knots??!?! ) (Sounds like the windspeed Tip would be at)
Super Typhoon #23 (1961 Wpac) (Peak winds at 180 knots, too high??)

Underestimated:

Hurricane Daniel (2006 Epac) (Peak strength in open waters was higher)
Hurricane Sergio (2006 Epac) (It was briefly a CAT3 hurricane for a few hours)
Invest 92E (2007 Epac) (Later became TD3-E) (I think it could have easily been a TD while still an Invest but there was no QUICKSCAT passes to confirm (they missed))

Nancy was STY 18 and had 215 mph and 888 millibars. A typhoon would have to have even lower pressure to support that wind, unless Nancy was a small typhoon. 888 mb is 190 mph in the Atlantic or 160 mph in West Pacific.

I figured that since the track of it was 5.5 days as a category 5 typhoon which Nancy is famous for. That wind speed is epic. I would say if it hit an island at that strength, it would be like a F3-F4 tornado constantly over a good sized area (something one cannot imagine).

[CrazyC83]

Here are mine:

Overestimated:

Ethel (1960)
Camille (1969)
Audrey (1957) (Landfall strength)
Hurricane Kristy (2006 Epac) (Near the end of it's life, some strength estimates were maybe too high)
Super Typhoon #15 (1958 Wpac) (Peak winds were 175 knots for 24 hours?)
Super Typhoon #18 (1961 Wpac) (Peak winds at 185 knots??!?! ) (Sounds like the windspeed Tip would be at)
Super Typhoon #23 (1961 Wpac) (Peak winds at 180 knots, too high??)

Underestimated:

Hurricane Daniel (2006 Epac) (Peak strength in open waters was higher)
Hurricane Sergio (2006 Epac) (It was briefly a CAT3 hurricane for a few hours)
Invest 92E (2007 Epac) (Later became TD3-E) (I think it could have easily been a TD while still an Invest but there was no QUICKSCAT passes to confirm (they missed))

Nancy was STY 18 and had 215 mph and 888 millibars. A typhoon would have to have even lower pressure to support that wind, unless Nancy was a small typhoon. 888 mb is 190 mph in the Atlantic or 160 mph in West Pacific.

I figured that since the track of it was 5.5 days as a category 5 typhoon which Nancy is famous for. That wind speed is epic. I would say if it hit an island at that strength, it would be like a F3-F4 tornado constantly over a good sized area (something one cannot imagine).

Actually with gusts, that would be an (E)F5.

[Cyclenall]

Actually with gusts, that would be an (E)F5.

I like using the "F" scale instead . Canada still uses that instead of the new EF scale. It would be an EF-5 with gusts which would wipe out mostly everything then.

[HurricaneBill]

Milton, Florida is also memorable for being struck by Florida's second deadliest tornado in history.

On March 31, 1962, an F3 tornado ripped through Milton, killing 17 people.

[StormScanWx]

For all those talking about Hurricane Dennis (2005)...

No one has said anything about the heavy damage in Atmore, Alabama.

In any hurricane, most of the attention goes to coastal areas, and rightfully so in most circumstances, however inland communities never seem to get any significant notice even though some are devastated.