Ex Invest 95L

[windstorm99]

NHC 2:05 Discussion..

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W. A SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING
OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH ALREADY EXTENDING FROM 24N80W OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 32N80W. THIS TROUGH AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE
E OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N70W TO
25N76W INCLUDING THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM 32W-72W WITH
A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW.
EQUALLY SMALL LOW LEVEL LOWS ARE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY NEAR 27N51W AND 25N57W BUT ARE ANALYZED AS SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N51W TO 31N49W AND FROM 21N58W TO 29N55W
RESPECTIVELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM RADIUS OF 27N51W AND FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 53W-60W.
BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 18N16W ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC TO 12N58W AND COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 32W.
OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 75W
WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

[Aric Dunn]

ok so i missed a few things this morning.... .. and have read some not so good research guided explanations and then have there been some good ones.. we need some data people... not here say!!

but anyway we have broad low with some vortices's spinning around like usual.. anywhere from sw florida to near the Lake O to near the east coast.. and just becasue its not off shore now does not mean it wont.. and also remember that center can and have so so many time in the past reformed back over water so dont go saying its not going to develop or its dead .. because its here and will be till its gone.. now i have not looked at much been in Class all day but let me check around...

hmm so its obviously a invest... hey we add "no big deal" to the title its just so fitting.. for those who know

[Aric Dunn]

here take a look at this loop .. from what i can see the area of lighter shear as forecast has continued to to move northward as is just about where it was supposed to .. and should continue to for the next 24 hour... i expect the shear to drop of quite a bit .. but it wont got to zero or anything it will probably stay in the 10 to 20 kt range..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... tjava.html

make sure you block out all the images except for the last 8 or so ..

[Aric Dunn]

and then here is the latest it is now entering the SE gulf and should continue northward .. as the uLL or the western gulf and mexico weakens.. (among other factors)

[fci]

I'd say theres gonna be alot of heavy rain over central FL today

How, its not moving west.

uh just look at the radar..
everything moving to the west.. its gonna pile up on the west coast today

I think the movement is basically following the broad circulation; West to the North and East to the South (of the broad center of circulation)

[cpdaman]

aric i think i disagree there is heavier shear moving northward and the brighter colors varify this, in the last image you can see the huge area of 10-20 knts of shear INCREASES headed northward, these are not shear totals (which are 30) . just want to make sure you are clear on that one

[Aric Dunn]

aric i think i disagree there is heavier shear moving northward and the brighter colors varify this, in the last image you can see the huge area of 10-20 knts of shear INCREASES headed northward, these are not shear totals (which are 30) . just want to make sure you are clear on that one

i dont think you get what i mean the northern edge of the decreasing shear is advancing northward as is forecast to .. watch the loop .. but only the last 8 images or so..

those are tendency maps i know.. thats why posted them ..

[cycloneye]

81
WHXX01 KWBC 291850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC FRI JUN 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20070629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070629 1800 070630 0600 070630 1800 070701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.8N 81.0W 27.5N 81.6W 28.1N 81.7W 28.3N 81.6W
BAMD 26.8N 81.0W 27.6N 80.1W 28.2N 79.2W 29.0N 77.7W
BAMM 26.8N 81.0W 27.3N 81.1W 27.8N 80.8W 28.1N 80.1W
LBAR 26.8N 81.0W 27.7N 80.6W 28.5N 79.8W 29.2N 78.6W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070701 1800 070702 1800 070703 1800 070704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.7N 80.7W 29.2N 78.8W 30.1N 77.9W 31.6N 77.4W
BAMD 30.1N 75.1W 33.0N 63.0W 40.8N 45.9W 49.8N 24.8W
BAMM 28.6N 78.7W 29.4N 74.6W 29.8N 68.1W 30.8N 61.7W
LBAR 29.9N 76.7W 31.8N 69.6W 39.8N 55.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 39KTS 34KTS 26KTS
DSHP 37KTS 42KTS 37KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.8N LONCUR = 81.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 81.2W DIRM12 = 16DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 24.4N LONM24 = 80.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM





For those who always are interested to see how the tropical models are doing,here is the 18:00z run.In this run,they initialize at 26.8n-81.0w,and the pressure is way up there,1015 mbs.

[Cyclone1]

Reminds me of Leslie in a way.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My opinion is this will remain weak and probably not develop even. If it does develop, I will simply say TD at the most. Nope, no Chantal out of this. The track will be toward the northeast and basically very little threat to land before dissipating harmlessly. Shearing winds are the big reason for lack of intensity.

On an interesting note, the Decay-Ships model forecasts more intensity than the Ships model. Hmmm...... Still, nothing much out of this system, if anything.

-Andrew92

[Aric Dunn]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My opinion is this will remain weak and probably not develop even. If it does develop, I will simply say TD at the most. Nope, no Chantal out of this. The track will be toward the northeast and basically very little threat to land before dissipating harmlessly. Shearing winds are the big reason for lack of intensity.

On an interesting note, the Decay-Ships model forecasts more intensity than the Ships model. Hmmm...... Still, nothing much out of this system, if anything.

-Andrew92

can i ask you to give some data that supports your 'opinion" dont just say shear and land... tell me why you think this.. some analysis.. please. otherwise it means nothing but that .. a opinion just asking .. it helps dont mean to sound like i against you or anything just want to know

[cpdaman]

so it moved NNW since the morning position of 26.3 and 80.7 and it is sort of over water lack OKECHobee that is

[Aric Dunn]

so it moved NNW since the morning position of 26.3 and 80.7

i cant say that its "moved" anywhere .. since we really dont have "center" just broad turning.. but there are multiple areas that are turning within it.. we can not be for sure on a direction till we have at least a noticeable center

[Aric Dunn]

by the way cpdaman did you figure out what i was talking about with the shear?

[benny]

zzz.. we are digging pretty deep on this thing. maybe we'll get a cheap one after it moves northeastward away from florida before it merges with a front.. but i wouldn't bet on it.

[Cyclone1]

zzz.. we are digging pretty deep on this thing. maybe we'll get a cheap one after it moves northeastward away from florida before it merges with a front.. but i wouldn't bet on it.

Hey give us a break, we're bored.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My opinion is this will remain weak and probably not develop even. If it does develop, I will simply say TD at the most. Nope, no Chantal out of this. The track will be toward the northeast and basically very little threat to land before dissipating harmlessly. Shearing winds are the big reason for lack of intensity.

On an interesting note, the Decay-Ships model forecasts more intensity than the Ships model. Hmmm...... Still, nothing much out of this system, if anything.

-Andrew92

can i ask you to give some data that supports your 'opinion" dont just say shear and land... tell me why you think this.. some analysis.. please. otherwise it means nothing but that .. a opinion just asking .. it helps dont mean to sound like i against you or anything just want to know

I'd be happy to. I will say, it is kind of cliched of me to say that there is a lot of shear and that it is close to land. However, those are indeed the current inhibiting factors. Now, as it moves away from the area, it very well could become a little better organized.

However, it still is very disorganized, and it truly does need to be in a favorable environment in order to sustain itself. I did see that the shear chart shows potential lessening if it indeed moves on the forecast path according to the models. And the waters where it would travel over are slowly but surely warming in the area. However, don't forget that one key to getting development is PERSISTENCE. Can this thing persist over these type of conditions?

Given its current state, it's going to take a while for anything to form, if it does. Yes, conditions may get more favorable, but if the system can't sustain itself, it isn't going to develop. That's why I am going for no Chantal out of this invest, but maybe a tropical depression.

Now, later in the season, I may become a little more worried about potential development in this area. Andrea and Barry have indeed occurred very close to where this disturbance is located. But the environmental conditions are enough for me to say that nothing much will likely come out this disturbance.

Keep in mind, too, that I am an amateur, like many people on this board. I'm here to learn and my opinions and forecasts may be way wrong. I admit that I haven't been posting a lot so far this year about forecasts. That is because I've been trying to figure out the way this season might work.

-Andrew92

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

PLEASE RAIN ON ME!!!! PLEASE!!! I am high and
dry yet again today

[hurricanefloyd5]

so it moved NNW since the morning position of 26.3 and 80.7

i cant say that its "moved" anywhere .. since we really dont have "center" just broad turning.. but there are multiple areas that are turning within it.. we can not be for sure on a direction till we have at least a noticeable center

So im geussing aric that your saying a slim chance of chantal but most likely no chantal am I right or not?????????????

[Trader Ron]

zzz.. we are digging pretty deep on this thing. maybe we'll get a cheap one after it moves northeastward away from florida before it merges with a front.. but i wouldn't bet on it.

Hey give us a break, we're bored.

Benny, I agree 100%. i don't know what all the hullabaloo is about. This feature might be spinning, but it's spinning sunshine on me. Been a gorgeous day in Naples. Could use some rain though.