Andrew92 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Andrew92 wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My opinion is this will remain weak and probably not develop even. If it does develop, I will simply say TD at the most. Nope, no Chantal out of this. The track will be toward the northeast and basically very little threat to land before dissipating harmlessly. Shearing winds are the big reason for lack of intensity.
On an interesting note, the Decay-Ships model forecasts more intensity than the Ships model. Hmmm...... Still, nothing much out of this system, if anything.
-Andrew92
can i ask you to give some data that supports your 'opinion" dont just say shear and land... tell me why you think this.. some analysis.. please. otherwise it means nothing but that .. a opinionjust asking .. it helps dont mean to sound like i against you or anything just want to know
I'd be happy to. I will say, it is kind of cliched of me to say that there is a lot of shear and that it is close to land. However, those are indeed the current inhibiting factors. Now, as it moves away from the area, it very well could become a little better organized.
However, it still is very disorganized, and it truly does need to be in a favorable environment in order to sustain itself. I did see that the shear chart shows potential lessening if it indeed moves on the forecast path according to the models. And the waters where it would travel over are slowly but surely warming in the area. However, don't forget that one key to getting development is PERSISTENCE. Can this thing persist over these type of conditions?
Given its current state, it's going to take a while for anything to form, if it does. Yes, conditions may get more favorable, but if the system can't sustain itself, it isn't going to develop. That's why I am going for no Chantal out of this invest, but maybe a tropical depression.
Now, later in the season, I may become a little more worried about potential development in this area. Andrea and Barry have indeed occurred very close to where this disturbance is located. But the environmental conditions are enough for me to say that nothing much will likely come out this disturbance.
Keep in mind, too, that I am an amateur, like many people on this board. I'm here to learn and my opinions and forecasts may be way wrong. I admit that I haven't been posting a lot so far this year about forecasts. That is because I've been trying to figure out the way this season might work.
-Andrew92
that is fine.. i understand that .. i am also always learning.. my point for it and i apoloigize if i sounded pushy.. but when you have 2 pages of one sentence posts .. its hard to see who want to learn and who is just making things up ..
as for your analysis.. first off each system is going to be different and thus requires a little open mindedness.. we know shear does not mean it wont develop no does the land .. in general yeah .. but like i said a few pages back.. center can reform and shear can change very quickly
as for the persistence.. it has been very very persistent.. and show no signs of giving up (hmm sounds like its thinking lol j/k) it has been around for more than 4 days in various states and yeah it could easily go poof!! .. someone posted back on the old thread he ask why do people always picture "perfect condition" every time we get an invest or something of the sorts.. the fact of the matter is we can a tropical cyclone if certain conditions are met..
for instance.. we have a warm core .. and a closed circulation .. and winds of a certain speed etc... it says noting about how it looks!! (im not picking on you either
).. and yes everything takes time.. i know that i have watched since it was over PR and started a thread that said "increased convection " or something like that.. i changed my thinking many many times.. i just try really hard to find all the data and make a case....i dont have a degree in meteorology.. but i have shrived to learn everything possible.. over the past 15 years of following the tropics.. as for the motion ... im not sure the trough ( well the first one ) is going to be enough to pick this system up a kick it all the way out.. the latest gfs has come greatly down on the strength of that cold front and im guessing it still will come down more. it will probably get left behind after getting pulled away from the coast .. how far is the question ..
the shear should begin to give here over the next 12 to 24 hours .. allowing for the shear to drop to more reasonable levels. the biggest question is where will it leave the coast.. does it move east or reform right off the coast tonight or does it still drift west from whats left of the ridge.. i tend to say that we will see it reform of the east coast later tonight and in the morning. when we lose the land interaction from the sea breezes a little . which by the way happen all the time when we have a weak wind field .. i saw it with quite few systems that are close to land.. the daytime heating can change the low levels quite a bit.. anyway .. yeah lost my train of though .. oh well .. i just looking to get some feed back and have discussions with some data to back them up rather than some random statements.,...
