Low level circ. @ 25N 55W

WindRunner · #21 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:45 am

Quickscat shows rain-flagged to 40kts and unflagged vectors to 20kts in our system #1, but (FWIW) system #2 has QS winds to 30kts as of 12z yesterday . . . now all THAT thing needs is convection, and it'd be good.

tailgater, that question really isn't all that simple. This system in the gulf would have recon flights, i.e. we would know exactly what it is without having to try and guess. Regardless, from the way it looks right now, I'd definately go with depression, though conservatively a la the NHC.

WindRunner · #22 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 9:10 am

Unfortunately, a little outflow boundary just weakend the LLC (after it strengthening up over the 11:00-12:30z timeframe) and is liable to completely get rid of it here shortly. You can see the boundary just to the north and NE of the LLC:

cheezyWXguy · #23 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 9:29 am

actually as of the next radar image, its regenerationg convection right around the LLC...its not out yet...

Eyewall · #24 Postby **Eyewall** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 9:31 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:actually as of the next radar image, its regenerationg convection right around the LLC...its not out yet...

I see it.. but it doesnt look like it will get very big
just need it to cover that low for a bit

WindRunner · #25 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 9:39 am

Haha, yeah, the outflow boundary did flare up a little storm just east of the center . . . the boundary is still to the north, however, and we'll have to see how the LLC does over the next couple of hours. For now, it's still there, albeit weakened.

#26 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:03 am

Looks like it's difrting west, I for one thought it would be going more northward by now, maybe a little ridging building back in.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:24 am

ABNT20 KNHC 301512
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NHC mentions this area,but chances for development are very slim to none.

Cyclone1 · #28 Postby **Cyclone1** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:26 am

Well at least they're acknowledging it.

WindRunner · #29 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:29 am

Yeah, Beven only put that in there because he's been bugged about it for a couple of days now and it's held together despite the shear . . . in August, this thing probably could have almost developed into a hurricane by now :cry:

Cyclone1 · #30 Postby **Cyclone1** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:30 am

Gah, why do all the good looking storms have to form in June so they can't develop?

wzrgirl1 · #31 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:32 am

I believe it will be in cooler waters soon......should diminish the chances even further

WindRunner · #32 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:43 am

I wouldn't say soon . . . it's been drifting northwestward (about 3°W over the past day, while traveling about 2 or 3°N), though steering patterns take it ever-so-slowly to the NNW over the next couple of days, though I suspect the shortwave picking up 95L will be more than happy to pick up this beauty as well . . .

WindRunner · #33 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:05 pm

Well, surprise, surprise! Shear reigns king once again . . . welcome back to the good old Atlantic . . .

#34 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 6:05 pm

It'll probably fire up some more convection tonite and early morning only to get to tops blown off again but I'm still surprised it's moving west.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

cheezyWXguy · #35 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 6:15 pm

tailgater wrote:It'll probably fire up some more convection tonite and early morning only to get to tops blown off again but I'm still surprised it's moving west.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF" target="_blank" target="_blank

IT maybe because, at least according to your map, the steering currents are very weak in that area, and may not be be strong enough in the lower levels to change its direction, despite the fact thats only a very weak swirl

alan1961 · #36 Postby **alan1961** » Sun Jul 01, 2007 6:31 am

Seems to be a small flare up over the Dominican this morning.

WindRunner · #37 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Jul 01, 2007 9:52 am

Well, the LLC drifted E overnight, and is pretty much dead. Still a nice swirl, though. Latitude lines are 25°N and 30°N for reference.

Odd that it still isn't moving northward, but I guess that shouldn't be a surprise by now.

Low level circ. @ 25N 55W

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