Ex Invest 95L

[NDG]

guys anyone notice the low pressure off of brevard county i take it this is 95L?

You mean what used to be 95L, it is Officialy Dead now, very hard to find a circulation now.

[Cyclone1]

So, plain and simple, the probability of this thing forming is just far enough above zero to be considered an exsisting number. It ain't forming, let's please put this INVEST to rest. I'm going to bed, next INVEST, please. kthx.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[wzrgirl1]

on to bigger and better

[vbhoutex]

on to bigger and better

Uh, preferrably not!!!!! Unless of course if they are fishies!!!!!!

[Thunder44]

They may have dropped the invest too early. On visible imagery the system appears to be reconsolidating it's center north this morning of the Grand Bahama Island. There is still appears to be high shear around but the convection has increased and moved closer to the center. Pressures aren't dropping in the surrounding buoys yet.

[wzrgirl1]

on to bigger and better

Uh, preferrably not!!!!! Unless of course if they are fishies!!!!!!

yep they are fun to track until they get close to your lat. and long.....let's pray for the fish

[NDG]

They may have dropped the invest too early. On visible imagery the system appears to be reconsolidating it's center north this morning of the Grand Bahama Island. There is still appears to be high shear around but the convection has increased and moved closer to the center. Pressures aren't dropping in the surrounding buoys yet.

I actually see a center of broad low pressure away from the main convection, near 29N and 76.5W, if you look at sat and wind reports north of the convection is all westerly to NW winds.

[Aric Dunn]

its defiantly not dead.. it look great compared to yesterday.. cant wait till later today..

shear way down from yesterday.. under 20kts some areas less then that

[cpdaman]

ironically more peope are -removed- this thing to just disappear

however the "ghost" of 95l isn't influenced so easily looks like the center is dropping SE

last nite east canaverl bouy dropped to a modest 29.93 at 4 am and winds switched from ssw to w to nw in following hours not sure what to make of this but visible seem to indicate a rotating signature dropping SE under the deeper convection

this storm seems to be getting "black booked" like canseco when he tried to make a comeback

[Thunder44]

They may have dropped the invest too early. On visible imagery the system appears to be reconsolidating it's center north this morning of the Grand Bahama Island. There is still appears to be high shear around but the convection has increased and moved closer to the center. Pressures aren't dropping in the surrounding buoys yet.

I actually see a center of broad low pressure away from the main convection, near 29N and 76.5W, if you look at sat and wind reports north of the convection is all westerly to NW winds.

Winds at buoy 41010 as 10:20am EDT the winds have switched to the North at 10 degrees:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

[WindRunner]

I'm actually going to agree with you this morning, Aric. It seems to be that the LLC has reformed (more like formed to begin with) to the north of the Bahamas this morning about 120 miles ESE of Cape Canaveral. The new LLC is not yet closed, as it still needs a easterly wind to its north, but it is looking quite nice. Shear is still obviously affecting the system, but is no longer preventing formation.

I'd say this is the best it's looked yet. Now it just needs to watch out for the front and slow down its easterly motion and we may have something yet.

[Thunder44]

11:30am TWO:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
the northwestern Bahamas and the western Atlantic Ocean. This
system is expected to merge with a frontal boundary in the next
couple of days and significant development is not expected.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Blake

[cpdaman]

the storm however will soon be moving into higher shear conditions over the bahamas based on the cimss shear projections. there is moderate mid level northerly shear and 35 knot upper level shear over central bahamas. and unless this shear moves out , or this things stalls i think this increased organization may not be sustanited much longer

ARic what's your take is the shear gonna relax over mid bahamas

[Thunder44]

In my opinion, it's better organized and more invest worthy than yesterday, but it sounds like from the latest TWO, the NHC is ready to write it off.

[tailgater]

looks like its part of the trough dropping down from the east coast, it would have a hard time closing off and should start racing off to the NE. But I guess it still has a chance.

[wxman57]

In my opinion, it's better organized and more invest worthy than yesterday, but it sounds like from the latest TWO, the NHC is ready to write it off.

Actually, I'd agree with you there. It's more "invest-worthy" now than it was the day the NHC declared 95L. There does appear to be a weak surface low near 28N/77-78W. But it's moving off to the NE and will be merging with a frontal boundary over the next 24 hours. NHC will just let it move on out without worrying about it now.

[Aric Dunn]

the storm however will soon be moving into higher shear conditions over the bahamas based on the cimss shear projections. there is moderate mid level northerly shear and 35 knot upper level shear over central bahamas. and unless this shear moves out , or this things stalls i think this increased organization may not be sustanited much longer

ARic what's your take is the shear gonna relax over mid bahamas

from the looks of it.. the ULL in gulf is also sliding east slowly so the lighter shear area will do the same... i think at least for the short term next 12 to 24 hours it should be fine after that its hard to tell ....i agree it needs to close of completly .. i have already found ese wind from a ship in the area that was at about 8am ... we just need to watch it today .. if nothing happens then it will probably be done for.. the trough is starting drop a little further south ... the only complication would be the other low that has formed to its NE that may have a short term affect on it possibly keeping it place..

i say that because i am having a hard time finding any motion really to the system .. just convection refireing and moving.. its interesting to note that the northern part of the convection there is Sirus clouds fanning out to the north.

[windstorm99]

Shear is not to bad currently but is forcasted to increase tommorow.

[NDG]

They may have dropped the invest too early. On visible imagery the system appears to be reconsolidating it's center north this morning of the Grand Bahama Island. There is still appears to be high shear around but the convection has increased and moved closer to the center. Pressures aren't dropping in the surrounding buoys yet.

I actually see a center of broad low pressure away from the main convection, near 29N and 76.5W, if you look at sat and wind reports north of the convection is all westerly to NW winds.

Winds at buoy 41010 as 10:20am EDT the winds have switched to the North at 10 degrees:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

Exactly, if there's a broad low is well to the NE of the area of conv closest to the Bahamas.