will we have an invest 96L soon?

[wxman57]

Dr. Masters and all the other professional from wunderground are very confident wind shear will be substantially lower than usual for July. In fact, Dr. Masters says the wind shear forecast for July is so low that it normally takes until August to see those values. Expect a major hurricane in the Atlantic July 2007.

I don't think Dr. Masters is talking about the first week of July. But at least the GFS is predicting ridging across the Atlantic by July 10-15, which should lead to decreasing shear.

[cycloneye]

I don't think Dr. Masters is talking about the first week of July. But at least the GFS is predicting ridging across the Atlantic by July 10-15, which should lead to decreasing shear.

Yes wxman57,that' is the timeframe that here in Puerto Rico the TV weather guys haved said that we have to watch here as enviromental conditions will be a bit better east of us.

[HUC]

It is time to look at the buoys that are in tne vicinity of this system????

[hurricanefloyd5]

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 13N36W TO 4N39W DRIFTING W. THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

Above is the 8:05 PM EDT small paragrafh from TPC at it's Tropical Weather Discussion product.Nothing in that discussion to open eyebrows.

[caribepr]

Well, Msbee, you got 'em going But I'm watching that one as well...we'll see what happens. All I know is, I'm going to San Juan for a couple of days to SHOP!!! (and not look at computers, and not smile at tourists, because I'll be one, yippee!), something I've never done before.
I'll see what's going on when I get back. You and Luis hold down the fort!

[AtlanticWind]

Quikscat http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds26.png

[Ivanhater]

[cheezyWXguy]

Honestly, I think this storm has a fairly decent shot at developing...Although convection is limited on the east side of the storm, there is still a decent amount of storms associated with the wave, and on the eastern side of the wave, I notice cyclonic turning, probably near 32W...shear over the system is still moderate according to the maps, about 15-20kts, however it is headed for a large area of 5-10kt shear and warmer sst's. It probably will not show much sign of organization, if at all, until it reaches at lest 40W, and until then its just wait and see.

IR loop of wave(turn up speed of loop and its easier to see the rotation on the wave...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

Shear map:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

Also, this circulation map shows a weak circulation in the vicinty of the wave
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrcir.gif

[jaxfladude]

Dr. Masters and all the other professional from wunderground are very confident wind shear will be substantially lower than usual for July. In fact, Dr. Masters says the wind shear forecast for July is so low that it normally takes until August to see those values. Expect a major hurricane in the Atlantic July 2007.

You guys(gals) just can not wait, can you?

Edit: This is looking goo...

[NDG]

I personally think that is too early to look at that area for development, if it detaches from the ITCZ and starts gaining some latitude it will encounter the drier environment thanks to the strong SAL just to its north.

[hawkeh]

I think this has a good shot at being the next Invest.

[wxman57]

I think this has a good shot at being the next Invest.

I'd put my money on a wave that has at least a shower associated with it. Give it another 2 weeks or more.

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020211
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR MERGED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[hurricanefloyd5]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N81W BUT IS ONLY GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOME ISOLATED
TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS.

[cheezyWXguy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020211
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR MERGED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N81W BUT IS ONLY GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOME ISOLATED
TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS.

What do either of these have to do with the wave in the atlantic...neither mention the wave at all

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No. I don't feel that they should be making invests unless there is a 20 percent chance of development for it. This system is around 8-9 north...Way to far south, with to much wind shear and dry air to deal with. I give it close to zero chance for developing. This is not 2005 people, so its still way to early.

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020211
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR MERGED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N81W BUT IS ONLY GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOME ISOLATED
TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS.

What do either of these have to do with the wave in the atlantic...neither mention the wave at all

it dosen't matter what system forms into or labaled as invest96L but anyways if it's a has possiblilie for an invest then i say post it???????????

[curtadams]

Well, the GFS and CMC are now predicting a long and stormy thread on Storm2K. The driving force behind this "whether" (or not) system will be a low accompanying the wave for the next 5-6 days: CMC GFS

The long-range "whether" forecast looks even more ominous with said low looking likely to transit the Caribbean next week. Although long-range forecasts are normally rather inaccurate, some local Storm2K experts note there is a lot of "hot air" that may need release. Argumentative Storm2K threads play an important role in releasing "hot air" to the ethersphere and this may drive a thread even if atmospheric conditions are unfavorable. Fortunately aggressive action by local authorities in the past has typically helped to prevent major damage and loss of temper. Nonetheless, during peak Storm2K season it's always well advised to have an "emergency kit" of counting-to-10 exercises, metaphorical flame retardant suits, and some nice fun activities to keep perspective.

[Aric Dunn]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 39W/40W IS
RELOCATED FARTHER E ALONG 35W BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY THAT
SHOWS AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR
8N35W. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MORNING VIS
IMAGERY COMES IN. ACCORDING TO THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...THIS IS
A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP A
SFC LOW ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N