Tropical Moisture--North Central Gulf Coast

[Berwick Bay]

WV Loop shows moisture streaming north from the Yucatan toward the La. Coast. La toward the left of the upper level high, while Fl on the right side where 95L is catching shear from it. Left of the High in the Bay of Campeche is an upper level low helping to drive the moisture from the Yucatan north to La. Also what is not seen is that oncoming trough from further north in the lower plains. Once the moisture arrives along the coast, the trough will probably help create further instability in coastal areas along the Gulf, and add to rain chances along the entire N Central Gulf Coast. At that time you'll see upper level winds along the coast begin to shift from W to E. Can see some evidence of that now in WV Loop. So we have been getting rain here, and are set to get more in the next couple of days. Here's the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[psdstu]

Sure would be nice to see some of that moisture make it's way to the middle part of the Florida Panhandle...... we are bone dry here.... according to the Florida Forestry Division we are the driest county in the state.

http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/index.html" target="_blank

[Berwick Bay]

Weather Channel runner across bottom of screen today warned of "tropical funnel clouds". Impressive electrical storms today (often indicative of instability at the upper levels). Tropical moisture has indeed made its way onto the North Central Gulf Coast. Speaking of instability at the upper levels, the upper level low which had been located in the Bay of Campeche at the time of this thread's beginning now has moved up to the Gulf Coast itself, and stretches along a W-E axis from La. to Fl. Here's the loop showing this development.

[skysummit]

BB...we've been having the advisory for tropical funnel clouds all this past week. There were two official reports in Houma. One was a 12 minute stationary funnel near the airport. I saw 3 this week...one near the Schriever area, one in Raceland, and one just of I-10 between Kenner and Laplace.

[Berwick Bay]

Here's the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

Berwick what does your post have to do with tropical activity? It would appear that the northern central Gulf coast is getting a taste of some tropical moisture but I would call it "sub-tropical moisture" as the tropics are quite a bit far from the northern central gulf coast. Here in Southern Florida we are getting some tropical rains as the tropical rainy pattern has set in for the summer with easterly breezes at 10-15mph and scattered to numerous convective activity offshore in the Gulf sream and inland over metro W. Palm Beach through Miami-Dade and into the everglades.

[Berwick Bay]

As you know Gator, the term tropical weather does not always refer to tropical cyclones. The current conditions here along the N Central Gulf Coast are the result of an upper level low which was born in the Bay of Campeche. A "normal" type of feature found in the tropics each summer and fall. In fact tropical cyclones usually have to run a "gauntlet" around and through these systems if they are going to survive and affect coastal areas. An upper level low that has its origins in the tropics and arrives in coastal areas of the North Central Gulf Coast to affect weather there is indeed "tropical weather" as I see it, and has a rightful place in a a"Talkin Tropics" Message Board.

[Berwick Bay]

Skysummit said

BB...we've been having the advisory for tropical funnel clouds all this past week. There were two official reports in Houma. One was a 12 minute stationary funnel near the airport. I saw 3 this week...one near the Schriever area, one in Raceland, and one just of I-10 between Kenner and Laplace.

Yes, summit. That moisture flow out of the Gulf started a few days ago. I think you guys further east of us, began to feel its effects earlier than we did here in SW La. You know Summit, my in-laws live in Houma. We were there last week briefly, and it was a stark reminder of just how "coastal and tropical" Houma is compared to Lafayette. The air was much heavier, even a whiff of an "organic' smell. It made you feel as if you were truly part of the marsh and coastal La. (Lafayette is about 30 miles from the coast, and their is no marsh to speak of in its vicinity). But you guys are really a part of the marsh itself. God bless y'all during this season. Its getting close now.

[skysummit]

I hear ya BB. A plane ride or helicopter ride is truly scary over Houma. The gulf is literally right there and there isn't a map out there that shows it..only recent hi res satellite imagery. Terrebonne Parish has no hurricane protection to speak of. Parts of the parish that never flooded before went underwater for Rita. I'll hate to see what'll happen if a storm hits within 100 miles to our west at a slow speed.

[wjs3]

BB:

Do you ever use streamline analyses? They are supre in the tropics and might help to spell out some of what you see in the WV loops. Here's the latest.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

The only upper high I could see close by was the one over the wester carib. (OK, there's ridging over the western Gulf, but not an upper high) I swear I am not trying to be critical, but I see a whole different setup than you mention. For instance, I don't see an upper level low in the BOC.

Here's TAFB's take on the situation, FWIW:

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N89W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MOST OF THE SE US
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF EXTEND FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO S TEXAS. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR SE GULF INTO
THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED INT HE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH A SEA BREEZE INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH INLAND OVER THE W COAST OF FLORIDA

WJS3

[Berwick Bay]

WJ the upper low WAS over the Bay of Campeche a couple of days ago. I mentioned it in the original post of this thread. It is now located in the coastal waters from La. to Fl. It is elongated from W to E. The discussion which you posted from the NHC mentions this upper level low. Perhaps you misunderstood me. When I mentioned Bay of Campeche I was talking about the origin of the upper level low (it was there two or three days ago).

[NDG]

Berwick what does your post have to do with tropical activity? It would appear that the northern central Gulf coast is getting a taste of some tropical moisture but I would call it "sub-tropical moisture" as the tropics are quite a bit far from the northern central gulf coast. Here in Southern Florida we are getting some tropical rains as the tropical rainy pattern has set in for the summer with easterly breezes at 10-15mph and scattered to numerous convective activity offshore in the Gulf sream and inland over metro W. Palm Beach through Miami-Dade and into the everglades.

Northern gulfcoast experiences almost as much tropical like weather (climate) as much as south FL, I would not call it subtropical climate in the summer time. They also get into a tropical rainy season in the summertime, just like S FL most time convection starts in the early morning hours in the coastal waters where many water spouts are reported (good indication of tropical conditions) and as the day goes on convection moves inland as the seabreeze develops. I found many times that the dewpoint is much higher than S Fl thanks to the warm GOM waters. And just like S FL cold fronts in the summertime are not very common. What I do find out is that tropical summertime weather does end quicker in the northern gulfcoast once Fall arrives versus S FL.

[wjs3]

WJ the upper low WAS over the Bay of Campeche a couple of days ago. I mentioned it in the original post of this thread. It is now located in the coastal waters from La. to Fl. It is elongated from W to E. The discussion which you posted from the NHC mentions this upper level low. Perhaps you misunderstood me. When I mentioned Bay of Campeche I was talking about the origin of the upper level low (it was there two or three days ago).

Geez, I'm sorry. I didn't think to look at the orignal date of the thread!

Please accept my apologies!

WJS3

[Berwick Bay]

No problem WJ, just an honest mistake. Take care.

[Steve]

Looks like outflow convergence from the NE and NW with a split over the deep south. Based on that WV shot earlier up, it's looking like some strong storms are firing up over southern Mississippi and heading SW toward the coastal counties. Lemme check the radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Yep.

Steve

[Steve]

Looks like outflow convergence from the NE and NW with a split over the deep south. Based on that WV shot earlier up, it's looking like some strong storms are firing up over southern Mississippi and heading SW toward the coastal counties. Lemme check the radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Yep.

Steve