SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Hot! Hot! Hot!

[Yankeegirl]

I know... I gotta go to Wal-Mart.... Maybe get the car washed... that will make it rain for sure!!!

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like the rain down there by Victoria might have its eye on Houston for later on... ?

[southerngale]

I posted a pic of one yesterday. I don't really understand how funnel clouds are possible, but not necessarily tornadoes.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1258 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-020000-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1258 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 1245 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVED A REPORT
FROM THE PUBLIC OF A FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG THE ACADIA...VERMILION
PARISH LINE SOUTH OF RAYNE LOUISIANA.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD DOES REACH THE
GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

[Yankeegirl]

We have had like a total of 20 drops of rain here all afternoon.... Gotta love that 70% chance of rain!!

[Tireman4]

Meanwhile in Humble it rained hard early this morning and again late morning. So, I guess we got what you did not Yankeegirl.

[JenBayles]

Darn good thing we DIDN'T get rain under the BC Dome yesterday. I woke up at 5:00 this morning to some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen. Couldn't see across the cul-de-sac at all, and the street was already flooded. Looks like the west side is under the gun today. Oh, and the NWS has gone out on a limb today: 100% chance of rain...

[vbhoutex]

Looks like you are getting it a lot worse than we are here in SB. We've had a little over 0.25" here so far, but all the noise is to our West(you). Hopefully this won't train as opposed to coming in waves. There is a huge "blob" of rain still moving our way from the GOM and the SW.

[JenBayles]

I'm watching that Blob closely myself, and not liking what I'm seeing! Right now, it appears the pipeline is primed and loaded to fire more of those Blobs right through west Houston this morning.

[vbhoutex]

Agree Jen!! And I spoke too soon as we were up to 1" before I left the house at 7:30!!! And like most of Texas we have totally saturated grounds so everything is run off!!!

[Yankeegirl]

I totally agree with you Jen, I also woke up to the lightning and thunder and heavy rain... but unlike you, i was too lazy to get up and look... I am going to get the last of the wedding day crap today.... figures its raining!!! Great way to start off my vacation!!!

[Yankeegirl]

This just in from our good friend Jeff!!! Doesnt look good....

Dangerous Flash Flood Threat for TX through 4th of July.



Floodgate operations continue on the Colorado and Brazos Rivers with flood flows being held behind controlled lakes.



Brazos River:



2 gates remain opened at Possum Kingdom Lake releasing 18,000 cfs and 14 gates are opened at Lake Granbury releasing 50,000 cfs. Flood flows entering the Brazos below Lake Granbury are resulting in downstream rises at Richmond and Rosharon toward and above flood stage. The river has crested and is falling at Bryan and should crest 5 feet below flood stage at Richmond late Tuesday and 5 feet above flood stage at Rosharon early Thursday. The river will then begin a secondary rise late this week as upstream water is released.



Colorado River:



Major flooding continues at Lake Travis with water 8-10 feet deep in homes. 4 flood gates remain in operation at Lake Travis releasing 30,000 cfs. 4 flood gates are open at Lake Buchanan resulting in 5 feet of flow over the Inks Lake spillway into Lake Travis. Lake Travis is now forecast to rise to near 700-701 ft by the middle of this week or 16 feet below the top of the emergency spillway. LCRA will not open any additional flood gates on Lake Travis unless the lake it forecasted to go above 710 ft.



The Bad News:



Threat for excessive rainfall returns to much of N, C and SE TX for the next 48-72 hours.



Mid and upper level low meandering around the plains for the last two weeks resided in SE KS this weekend where 18-22 inches of rain fell in about 18 hours Saturday morning. This low is now moving toward the SSW and is located NW of Fort Worth this morning. Forecast models are in good agreement that over the next 48 hours this low will move across C TX into SW TX by late on Wednesday. This places all of C and E TX under a favorable upper air divergent flow which will lift the incredibly moist air mass. GPS sounding this morning show near record PWS values along the middle TX coast of 2.45-2.55 inches and the result has been significant rainfall values over Victoria and Jackson counties this morning. Since 300am 7-9 inches of rain has fallen over portions of Victoria and Jackson counties.



As the closed low moves SSW multiple excessive rainfall events are possible over areas already flooded and over rivers already above flood stage. Potential is high for nocturnal core rainfalls near and to the east of the low which could produce 10-15 inches of rainfall in 6-10 hours. Given very moist profiles across much of the area hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches and possibly as high as 6-8 inches will be possible.



Expect current tropical MCS to rain itself out by early afternoon as is typical with such tropical type air masses. By late evening coastal speed convergence will fire off thunderstorms in the nearshore waters with them spreading inland after midnight. Will also need to watch out N and W for potential core rainfall event near the center of the low.



Concern continues for high rainfall totals below control lakes on the Brazos and Colorado rivers as was seen this morning. Rainfall falling below Waco on the Brazos and below Austin on the Colorado River will go uncontrolled into the river resulting in additional rises. These rivers are already close to flood stage and such rainfall could send them well above flood stage. Already this morning 2-3 inches fell on the Brazos below CLL and 5-6 inches fell on the Colorado below Wharton.



Simply put we are one excessive rainfall event away from really big problems on our area rivers. Given the pattern at hand, I would not be surprised if some location picked up 15-20 inches of rain in the next 72 hours. Due to the mesoscale nature of such extreme rainfall events determining where such totals will fall is impossible until storms develop. Given the track of the mid level low the areas along and W of I-45 seem to be favored.

[JenBayles]

Well crap on toast! That is NOT what we needed to hear!

[Tireman4]

And the roller coaster ride continues!!!!!!!!!!

[svrwx0503]

I measured and report 1.58'' 7am to COCORAHS and it was still raining.

[JenBayles]

Just light showers here under the Dome now, but I've got 2.5" in the gauge from this morning's event. Don't want no more steenking rain!

[jasons2k]

I received .98" in the rain gauge that still needs to be moved...

[TexasSam]

Seems the rain out over the "Gulf" is starting early tonight. Might be the Houston area's turn to get flooded...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[Ptarmigan]

Seems the rain out over the "Gulf" is starting early tonight. Might be the Houston area's turn to get flooded...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Should keep an eye on it. The air will destabilize overnight. It's rather soupy outside.

[Ptarmigan]

This just in from our good friend Jeff!!! Doesnt look good....

Dangerous Flash Flood Threat for TX through 4th of July.



Floodgate operations continue on the Colorado and Brazos Rivers with flood flows being held behind controlled lakes.



Brazos River:



2 gates remain opened at Possum Kingdom Lake releasing 18,000 cfs and 14 gates are opened at Lake Granbury releasing 50,000 cfs. Flood flows entering the Brazos below Lake Granbury are resulting in downstream rises at Richmond and Rosharon toward and above flood stage. The river has crested and is falling at Bryan and should crest 5 feet below flood stage at Richmond late Tuesday and 5 feet above flood stage at Rosharon early Thursday. The river will then begin a secondary rise late this week as upstream water is released.



Colorado River:



Major flooding continues at Lake Travis with water 8-10 feet deep in homes. 4 flood gates remain in operation at Lake Travis releasing 30,000 cfs. 4 flood gates are open at Lake Buchanan resulting in 5 feet of flow over the Inks Lake spillway into Lake Travis. Lake Travis is now forecast to rise to near 700-701 ft by the middle of this week or 16 feet below the top of the emergency spillway. LCRA will not open any additional flood gates on Lake Travis unless the lake it forecasted to go above 710 ft.



The Bad News:



Threat for excessive rainfall returns to much of N, C and SE TX for the next 48-72 hours.



Mid and upper level low meandering around the plains for the last two weeks resided in SE KS this weekend where 18-22 inches of rain fell in about 18 hours Saturday morning. This low is now moving toward the SSW and is located NW of Fort Worth this morning. Forecast models are in good agreement that over the next 48 hours this low will move across C TX into SW TX by late on Wednesday. This places all of C and E TX under a favorable upper air divergent flow which will lift the incredibly moist air mass. GPS sounding this morning show near record PWS values along the middle TX coast of 2.45-2.55 inches and the result has been significant rainfall values over Victoria and Jackson counties this morning. Since 300am 7-9 inches of rain has fallen over portions of Victoria and Jackson counties.



As the closed low moves SSW multiple excessive rainfall events are possible over areas already flooded and over rivers already above flood stage. Potential is high for nocturnal core rainfalls near and to the east of the low which could produce 10-15 inches of rainfall in 6-10 hours. Given very moist profiles across much of the area hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches and possibly as high as 6-8 inches will be possible.



Expect current tropical MCS to rain itself out by early afternoon as is typical with such tropical type air masses. By late evening coastal speed convergence will fire off thunderstorms in the nearshore waters with them spreading inland after midnight. Will also need to watch out N and W for potential core rainfall event near the center of the low.



Concern continues for high rainfall totals below control lakes on the Brazos and Colorado rivers as was seen this morning. Rainfall falling below Waco on the Brazos and below Austin on the Colorado River will go uncontrolled into the river resulting in additional rises. These rivers are already close to flood stage and such rainfall could send them well above flood stage. Already this morning 2-3 inches fell on the Brazos below CLL and 5-6 inches fell on the Colorado below Wharton.



Simply put we are one excessive rainfall event away from really big problems on our area rivers. Given the pattern at hand, I would not be surprised if some location picked up 15-20 inches of rain in the next 72 hours. Due to the mesoscale nature of such extreme rainfall events determining where such totals will fall is impossible until storms develop. Given the track of the mid level low the areas along and W of I-45 seem to be favored.

Hmmmmmmmmm. The big rain event at Marble Falls happened far away from the center of the low. It was because two storms collided over Marble Falls, which caused the storms to stall and rain themselves out.

[TexasSam]

3RD FLOODGATE REOPENED AT POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE

The Brazos River Authority reopened a third floodgate at Possum Kingdom Lake at 9:30 a.m., Monday, July 2 following severe thunderstorms that dropped from 1 – 4 inches throughout the northern basin area. The reopening of the gate has prompted TXDOT to once again close the Hwy. 16 Bridge.

More here:http://www.brazos.org/