Underestimated and overestimated storms

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docjoe
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Re: Underestimated and overestimated storms

#41 Postby docjoe » Sun Jul 01, 2007 8:15 pm

Berwick Bay wrote:So I return to the basic point. Dennis will not be well remembered. You see technically it will retain its major hurricane classification (thats what the numbers say). But as a storm of impact and substance upon coastal America, it is very forgettable. In that regard it was a VERY overrated storm.


I guess I am confused as to what is meant by overrated. It certainly wasnt hyped in the press...heck 2 days later and the news had moved on. Ultimately almost all storms will be mostly forgotten (with obvious exceptions like labor day 35, Donna, Katrina, etc).However for the people who were affected terms like overrated, underrated, major, minor etc are irrelevant. People in Santa Rosa county will remember Dennis and Ivan just as people in the Keys may remember Donna, people in NC with fran, and the northern gulf with Katrina and Rita. They wont forget. You give the perception that it is almost a contest....for anyone who has been hit hard they learn it isnt...have you been in one first hand?

docjoe
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Berwick Bay

Re: Underestimated and overestimated storms

#42 Postby Berwick Bay » Sun Jul 01, 2007 10:38 pm

Docjoe, I know that any storm is important when you have experienced it, or had loss from it. But the question was asked about overrated storms. This implies that some storms are indeed overrated. That was the question. Now if you pick any recent storm and put it into that category, you're almost bound to offend someone. What I looked at was that Dennis was counted as a major hurricane at landfall. Yet the damage and loss which occured at the point of landfall makes Dennis pale comparison with other panhandle storms such as Ivan, Opal, and Eloise. As we progress through the years, I think those storms (also major hurricanes) will be remembered far more than Dennis. Its all relative.
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#43 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Jul 02, 2007 12:33 am

I think the strengths of Hurricane Fran (1996) and Hurricane Marilyn (1995) were underestimated.
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Berwick Bay

Re: Underestimated and overestimated storms

#44 Postby Berwick Bay » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:11 am

I tend to agree with you Bill, especially in regards to Marilyn. When she made landfall in the Virgin Islands (during that incredible season of '95) she was rated at 110 mph (or strong cat 2). But the damage was actually more akin to Cat 3, and I may be mistaken, but wasn't Marilyn's landfall there later upgraded to that of a Cat 3 system?? I believe that she may have been in an intensification mode too, which would have made her passage there all the more frightening.
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#45 Postby terstorm1012 » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:28 am

Re: Marylin

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Powell/powell_3.pdf (PDF WARNING)

(You may need to convert from meters/second to Miles/hr)

as for Fran, you can go here:http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/fran1996/FRAN_88D.html (also in meters/second.)
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