will we have an invest 96L soon?

[punkyg]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 39W/40W IS
RELOCATED FARTHER E ALONG 35W BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY THAT
SHOWS AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR
8N35W. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MORNING VIS
IMAGERY COMES IN. ACCORDING TO THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...THIS IS
A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP A
SFC LOW ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N

Now they talk about it.

[ftolmsteen]

The last couple of frames this morning it looks like it's really making a good spin now. If this thing really does get going I'm thinking this will be effecting the U.S. in the near future with that Bermuda high placed like it is now. It's shifted a bit further east but I'm thinking it'll build back west again.

I don't care what these "experts" say, it's going to be a busy year. Here we are already looking at potential for development east of the windward islands and it's only July 2, with two names scratched off the list.

[wxman57]

The last couple of frames this morning it looks like it's really making a good spin now. If this thing really does get going I'm thinking this will be effecting the U.S. in the near future with that Bermuda high placed like it is now. It's shifted a bit further east but I'm thinking it'll build back west again.

I don't care what these "experts" say, it's going to be a busy year. Here we are already looking at potential for development east of the windward islands and it's only July 2, with two names scratched off the list.

The "experts" are saying it's going to be a busy year. This disturbance near 8N/35W does look more impressive today. It's the system the GFS has been developing for the past week. However, wind shear does appear to increase in the path of this disturbance beyond 2-3 days, so chances of development are only slight.

[ronjon]

Well, the GFS and CMC are now predicting a long and stormy thread on Storm2K. The driving force behind this "whether" (or not) system will be a low accompanying the wave for the next 5-6 days: CMC GFS

The long-range "whether" forecast looks even more ominous with said low looking likely to transit the Caribbean next week. Although long-range forecasts are normally rather inaccurate, some local Storm2K experts note there is a lot of "hot air" that may need release. Argumentative Storm2K threads play an important role in releasing "hot air" to the ethersphere and this may drive a thread even if atmospheric conditions are unfavorable. Fortunately aggressive action by local authorities in the past has typically helped to prevent major damage and loss of temper. Nonetheless, during peak Storm2K season it's always well advised to have an "emergency kit" of counting-to-10 exercises, metaphorical flame retardant suits, and some nice fun activities to keep perspective.

I think storm2k is contributing to global warming with some of these threads.

[ronjon]

Correct wxman57, this is the low pressure that GFS has shown for the last week of runs. I posted a topic on it about the first cape verde cyclone last week. I did notice that the CMC and NOGAPs pick up on it in their 00Z runs. The 00Z Euro also has a small low pressure near 10N-40W in 72 hrs. None of the global models really develop it, with the GFS reverting it to an open wave by the time it reaches the lesser antilles - perhaps because of the shear you mentioned. One other note - I have noticed that the Atlantic ridge has assumed a mid-oceanic position with a rather southward extent. East coast troughs, rather than breaking this ridge down, seem to be riding over the top of it over the northern Atlantic. If this steering pattern holds (a big if) and remains semi-permenent, I don't think this bodes well for the carribean, GOM, or east coast of the US since it won't allow the storms that do form to exit northward into the central or western Atlantic.

[wzrgirl1]

isn't it going to have a lot of shear to contend with?

[wjs3]

wzgirl:

One thing you can do is run over to the Penn State Tropical E-Wall (Here's the Atlantic page):

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

And take a look at some model runs yourself to assess this. At a quick glance, it does look like down the road there is a chance of some shear impacting this system (if one develops).

I'm assuming you know how to read these model progs--if not, hop over to the "got a question" forum and drop a post in there. I'll watch for it.

WJS3

[punkyg]

Any one think this will make it to the western carribean?

[Cyclone1]

Any one think this will make it to the western carribean?

Meh, maybe the eastern Caribbean, too early to predict further west than that, IMO. We'll have to wait and see.

[CaneCharmer]

Be kind to a novice. If this system develops any further does it have any possibility of affecting the east coast? Miami, in particular? I know it's hard to tell at this point being that it's early in the season and this thing is still far to the south, but I'm just paying attention...What are the atmospheric conditions it's facing up the road that will either hinder or help it???

[cpdaman]

how useful /accurate are long term (4 day out) forecasts regarding wind shear

i know intensity forecasts stink, and that the aveage standard error for storms landfall 3 days out was 250 miles although this may be decreasing.

so are wind shear maps 3-4 days out have any degree of confidence usually?

[cpdaman]

novice there is always a possibility but climo says no go ahead enjoy yourself

[skysummit]

From Dr. Masters:

"A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa late last week is now near 8N 35W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic. This wave has heavy thunderstorm activity and some counterclockwise spin to it, as seen on both visible satellite loops and QuikSCAT. Wind shear is 10-20 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 10 and 30 knots in the region over the next two days. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, which is warm enough to support some tropical development. Dry air does not seem to be a hindrance, as the Saharan Air Layer is about 150 miles to the north of the wave. The GFS model does indicate a tropical depression might form here, although our other three reliable models, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF, do not. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare. Due to this fact, plus the somewhat marginal wind shear and the position of the wave so close to the Equator, I'm not expecting it to develop. However, we should keep an eye on it this week as it moves very slowly to the west at less than 5 mph."

[punkyg]

Skysummit i saw that already just letting yo know

[wjs3]

...Like any other model guidance, there can (will) always be errors. Think big picture and pattern rather than the specifics any time, including shear, I say. Like any other model variable, shear is estimated by looking at a number of characteristics of the atmosphere over a number of different altitudes/heights. The chance for errors increases over time.

Add to that that there are not a lot of surface/upper air obs to "inform" the models over a lot of the area we are looking at--and you can see that these things have to be taken with a grain of salt. Things can be really poorly initialized just because of the lack of obs.

That being said, I looked at it really quickly, but I thought there was generally a "consistent" look to PSU ewall models in increasing shear a bit in a few days. (I caveat that by saying there are of course other models out there, and I haven't checked them out)

But that could totally change. I'm not as experienced as Wxman57, so I don't come down quite as strongly on a forecast as he does. Someday, maybe.


...also, welcome to the board, canecharmer. As cpdaman noted, there is no reliable way to tell whether there will even BE a system by the time it gets that far west, let alone what the path, if any, will be. I assume you have watched the tropics for a while? Think about how many times you've seen track errors on well-developed systems near the coast. Now, in this case, there's not even really a "system" for the models to get a hold of and give us any kind of estimate on!

WJS3

[LarryWx]

I'm wondering if Atlantic MDR shear will markedly increase over the next few days for a few days as a delayed effect from the very strongly negative daily SOI readings of the last few days, even though the SOI's are rising back up now and will continue to do so more or less for the next few days. A met. I talked to last year said that there is some tendency for MDR shear to increase soon after plummetting SOI values because these negative SOI's tend to be associated with increased thunderstorm activity (lower OLR) near the dateline, which then often translates to stronger upper level westerlies (due to increased rising air from those thunderstorms needing to be evacuated). This met. told me that these increased upper level westerlies sometimes will come across to near or over the Atlantic MDR within a few days to a week or so of these increased dateline thunderstorms.

This idea is not set in stone. It is more or less a tendency. That's the connection between El Nino's (which generally have -SOI's) and increased MDR shear.

[Frank2]

I agree wxman57 - those "experts" are predicting a busy season, but, as my late sister would often say, it seems there are always "pundits" out there who love to give their opinion....

When I was a kid, The Farmer's Almanac was the only one in that business, but, today, it seems everyone wants a "career" as a fortune teller...

Still, the reality is that so far, aside from a questionable Andrea and Barry, it's been quiet - thankfully...

[LarryWx]

Still, the reality is that so far, aside from a questionable Andrea and Barry, it's been quiet - thankfully...

Even with two "questionable" storms, I find it hard to call it quiet relative to history when there have been many years without a single storm to this point. If I were forced to classify it, I'd call it at least near average in overall activity.

It is normally quiet at this stage.

[MiamiensisWx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021500
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree LarryWx - near average, but, that's all...