will we have an invest 96L soon?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Dose anyone thing that invest96L will form today or tomorrow??????????????

['CaneFreak]

Got more against it than for it right at this very moment....IF it can survive for another 3 days...then yes...maybe I will give it a 10 % chance to develop in 72-96 hours...

[caneman]

Oh Fank, actually slightly above normal but you're such a breathe of fresh air in that you actually try and wish away tropical activity.

[Derek Ortt]

an invest does not form, it is declared

[hurricanefloyd5]

an invest does not form, it is declared

opps my bad not formed i meant declaired

[wxman57]

Still, the reality is that so far, aside from a questionable Andrea and Barry, it's been quiet - thankfully...

Even with two "questionable" storms, I find it hard to call it quiet relative to history when there have been many years without a single storm to this point. If I were forced to classify it, I'd call it at least near average in overall activity.

It is normally quiet at this stage.

It might not be too far from normal given that most of those years without a June or July named storm were pre-satellite and pre-buoy data. Barry may well have been missed before Satellite and recon. And Andrea would not have been given a name prior to 2002.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS is only marginally enthusiastic. It has a closed low for a while, but after 72 hours it opens it up into a wave again.

[Frank2]

Well, caneman, you can't blame a fella for being optimistic (said as the ocean rises - glug, glug)...

[DanKellFla]

an invest does not form, it is declared

For some reason, I am going to remember that phrase, "not formed, declared." There is something great about that phrase.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
Well our wave is on floater 1.

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters thoughts on the wave approaching the islands...

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa late last week is now near 8N 35W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic. This wave has heavy thunderstorm activity and some counterclockwise spin to it, as seen on both visible satellite loops and QuikSCAT. Wind shear is 10-20 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 10 and 30 knots in the region over the next two days. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, which is warm enough to support some tropical development. Dry air does not seem to be a hindrance, as the Saharan Air Layer is about 150 miles to the north of the wave. The GFS model does indicate a tropical depression might form here, although our other three reliable models, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF, do not. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare. Due to this fact, plus the somewhat marginal wind shear and the position of the wave so close to the Equator, I'm not expecting it to develop. However, we should keep an eye on it this week as it moves very slowly to the west at less than 5 mph.

[windstorm99]

As metioned SSD has put a floater on it.

[punkyg]

Man its really quiet in this thread. whay aren't you guys talking about this wave?
well i'm going back to wunderground for the meantime bye yall.

[fci]

Man its really quiet in this thread. whay aren't you guys talking about this wave?
well i'm going back to wunderground for the meantime bye yall.

I think everyone is waiting for the real action to start in another month or so....
For several Invests to be "declared" and then to "form" into Depressions and ultimately Tropical Cyclones.

[windstorm99]

Its not impossible for something to get going but development this far out in the atlantic at this time of the year is indeed quite rare to see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is not the time of year when people are watching the Central Atlatnic yet. July is normally very quite, but once August gets here things pick up. No reason to have more then one eye on this "system".

[x-y-no]

Man its really quiet in this thread. whay aren't you guys talking about this wave?
well i'm going back to wunderground for the meantime bye yall.

ZZZzzzZZZZzzz ... What? Oh, sorry ... I must have fallen asleep from all the excitement ...

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE W ALONG 43W/44W S OF
19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. EARLIER TODAY...THIS WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED E ALONG 35W TO MATCH UP WITH THE FORMATION OF A
BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AFTER ANALYZING A LONG-TERM
SATELLITE LOOP...IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WAVE LEFT
BEHIND A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE ITCZ WHICH HAS FORMED INTO THE
LOW. THE LARGER SCALE WAVE IS STILL DISCERNIBLE ON VISIBLE SAT
IMAGES AS A SURGE-LIKE STRUCTURE. IN ADDITION...THE GFS
MOISTURE FIELDS AGREE WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGES WHICH GAVE ME
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ADJUSTMENT. REGARDLESS...THE MORE
INTERESTING FEATURE IS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO THE E OF THE WAVE
ANALYZED 1014 MB NEAR 8N36W. WHILE THIS LOW DOES HAVE A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...CONVECTION IS
LIMITED AND CONFINED WITHIN 180 NM S AND W OF THE CENTER.

The 2:05 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion from TPC of the wave/low.Interesting that the wave is ahead of the low pressure.

[gatorcane]

Check out this motion loop. There is a very distinctive spin to this wave. It looks rather impressive for me for this time of year. What do you think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[windstorm99]

Yep...It does have a good spin to it but it remains somewhat ill defined at the moment.Upper level winds are marginal and range anywere from 10-30kts during the next few days which might keep it in check in the near term.Its also to close to the equater at the moment.Adrian