Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[cycloneye]

03/1145 UTC 10.1N 38.4W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Wow,what a jump from too weak to 1.5 T number.

[tailgater]

Yeah that is a big jump, I was just fixing to post that I tought it was only a mid level system at this time.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

03/1145 UTC 10.1N 38.4W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Wow,what a jump from too weak to 1.5 T number.

Where else can you get that CI info? That page has not yet updated with it. Are using a mirrored site that updates faster?

It only now updated for me. I suppose I should have forced my browser to make sure it did not use a cached page. It was probably that.

[Chacor]

Wouldn't this be TD#1, and not TD#3, since Andrea and Barry were never classified as TD's?

Even though Andrea and Barry were never classified as TD's, technically they still had to pass through that stage to become a TS. For instance, a car cannot go from 0 mph to 60 mph without going through 30 mph (unless it's a ferarri ).

BTW Barry was assessed to have been a TD before TS in its best-track.

[Frank2]

Thanks, Chris - as Chris said to Caneman, less stable means more development...

[miamicanes177]

I disagree with the folks at the NHC. This is very near a large area of 5-10kts of wind shear. Shear will not be the problem for now. Therefore, I believe they are being too cautious at the moment. Yes, dry air is a negative, but the air is actually much drier to the north so it could be worse. I give this a 75% chance of becoming Chantal during its lifetime.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 031235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC TUE JUL 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070703 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070703 1200 070704 0000 070704 1200 070705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 38.3W 10.1N 39.8W 9.9N 41.3W 9.7N 43.0W
BAMD 9.8N 38.3W 10.5N 40.3W 11.0N 42.3W 11.4N 44.4W
BAMM 9.8N 38.3W 10.2N 39.9W 10.4N 41.5W 10.6N 43.2W
LBAR 9.8N 38.3W 10.3N 40.5W 11.0N 42.9W 11.8N 45.6W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070705 1200 070706 1200 070707 1200 070708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 45.2W 10.4N 50.5W 11.0N 56.6W 12.5N 63.6W
BAMD 11.9N 46.5W 13.4N 50.4W 15.2N 54.2W 17.2N 58.5W
BAMM 10.9N 45.3W 12.2N 50.2W 13.9N 55.4W 15.6N 60.9W
LBAR 12.3N 48.4W 13.9N 53.9W 15.2N 58.0W 17.2N 62.1W
SHIP 31KTS 25KTS 23KTS 25KTS
DSHP 31KTS 25KTS 23KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 38.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


The 12:00 z run of the tropical models.The maximun that ship goes in intensity is 31kts.

[Derek Ortt]

Careful with conventional WV imagery

It detetcts upper level water vapor only. SAL is often undetected, sometimes even on microwave TPW data.

You really need dropsondes to assess the actual water vapor environment

[RaleighWx]

Hey folks, just wanted to remind you, that my ATCF(hurricane models) webpage should update timely in an automated fashion.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Tiny systems like this are easily poofable especially this time of the year..

[wjs3]

Chris:

For some time I have been hoping to find a secret decoder ring for the raw SHIPS output like the one you linked to (looks to me like you noted a Theta E piece of the output????) Can you or anyone else help?

Thanks

WJS3

[cycloneye]

Here are the tracks of the tropical models for the 12:00z run.

[Chacor]

Nice "band"...

[wxman57]

Hi all. I made a couple of McIDAS images of 96L. One is zoomed out a bit, the other zoomed in. I'll just post the links to save bandwidth:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96La.gif (zoomed out)

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lb.gif (zoomed in)

Looks like a thunderstorm or two around a weak LLC. In most cases, such systems never develop. Convergence doesn't look too good, and there's dry air to contend with, and the ECMWF forecasts increasing shear ahead of it. I guess it'll be fun for you guys to watch while we wait for the real season, though.

[Berwick Bay]

Wave takes dip South. Perhaps feeling pressure to the north??
Here's the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

Wave takes dip South. Perhaps feeling pressure to the north??
Here's the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I believe you're watching a single thunderstorm rotating around. It was on the western side of the mid-level circulation so it's moving south now.

[Berwick Bay]

I was looking at those model plots posted above. A southerly dip in track is gonna' make that Bams model look best. It calls for a short term southerly dip followed by a west course and entrance into the Carribean Sea near the Windward Islands. It has the most southerly track for this storm. Its early by I'm gonna go pretty much with this BAMS forecast track.

[alan1961]

Careful with conventional WV imagery

It detetcts upper level water vapor only. SAL is often undetected, sometimes even on microwave TPW data.

You really need dropsondes to assess the actual water vapor environment

That brown stuff on the WV image looks like SAL to me Derek :wink

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

[Berwick Bay]

WXman wrote

I believe you're watching a single thunderstorm rotating around. It was on the western side of the mid-level circulation so it's moving south now.

I really don't think so Wxman. The whole mass of coulds (more than one storm), the whole circulation?? if you will, looks to have been pushed south. System is not moving very fast, and a small dip to the south would not be out of the question IMHO.

[Patrick99]

Looks good for now, but I bet it's that diurnal convection thing where it fires off storms overnight and gradually dies off during the day.

That's a good explanation about the water vapor...I always wondered why there are times when I can look at the WV and apparently not see very dry air over Florida, yet I look on the AFD and we're under a red flag warning.