Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[miamicanes177]

and the ECMWF forecasts increasing shear ahead of it.

Sometimes it's best to do nowcasting. Right now look at the shear ahead of this. Models can forecast whatever they want and be 100% incorrect. 5-10kts of shear is solidly in place from 8N 35W to 8N 55W.

[Berwick Bay]

Patrick said
Looks good for now, but I bet it's that diurnal convection thing where it fires off storms overnight and gradually dies off during the day.

I think its more than that Patrick. I was thinking like you last evening when this flare-up began. But if it was just diurnal, then it should have died down by now, I believe. No, I think we have a fairly vigorous disturbance here that is on the threshold of development. Not there yet, but close.

[DESTRUCTION5]

WXman wrote

I believe you're watching a single thunderstorm rotating around. It was on the western side of the mid-level circulation so it's moving south now.

I really don't think so Wxman. The whole mass of coulds (more than one storm), the whole circulation?? if you will, looks to have been pushed south. System is not moving very fast, and a small dip to the south would not be out of the question IMHO.

I think were looking at Nly shear..

[canes04]

Ok Wxman,

So your on the record saying this won't develope.

[Trader Ron]

I think Dry Air will win out.

[wxman57]

Ok Wxman,

So your on the record saying this won't develope.

I give it a 30% chance it'll develop into a TD before it weakends back to a wave. That's high considering that the average chance of a wave developing is on the order of 10-15%. But the average wave has no lower or mid-level rotation. Even though wind shear appears to be light enough now (as ECMWF currently shows on its analysis), it looks like that shear will increase with time.

[wxman57]

I believe you're watching a single thunderstorm rotating around. It was on the western side of the mid-level circulation so it's moving south now.

I really don't think so Wxman. The whole mass of coulds (more than one storm), the whole circulation?? if you will, looks to have been pushed south. System is not moving very fast, and a small dip to the south would not be out of the question IMHO.

No, I'm fairly certain any LLC or MLC is tracking toward about 280 deg. I have considerably better satellite imagery than you have at your disposal on the Internet. The trick is to NOT key in on the big bright thunderstorm but to focus on the weak circulation center. If you watch the circulation, it's not moving south, it's moving toward about 280 degrees.

[cheezyWXguy]

WXman wrote

I believe you're watching a single thunderstorm rotating around. It was on the western side of the mid-level circulation so it's moving south now.

I really don't think so Wxman. The whole mass of coulds (more than one storm), the whole circulation?? if you will, looks to have been pushed south. System is not moving very fast, and a small dip to the south would not be out of the question IMHO.

Actually wxman is right...the actually LLC is near the thick part of the "upper band". Go back and look at the images he posted and youll see...the convection mass used to cover the center, but it is drifting off to the SW, while the storm is still moving WNW

[Berwick Bay]

Thank you gentlemen.

[punkyg]

Its taking them for ever to upgrade 96L into a td.
I bet they will upgrade it when it starts forming a eye wall.

[Weatherfreak000]

Shear is indeed steadily increasing ontop of 96L given the TWD's Placement.


We need to see some WNW movement, pronto.

[alan1961]

Its taking them for ever to upgrade 96L into a td.
I bet they will upgrade it when it starts forming a eye wall.

It will be upgraded to a TD within 6 hours punky i'm fairly certain of that

[Derek Ortt]

system looks to be on life support. Just took a look at a garp visible sat loop and cannot see a surface circulation any longer. Convection is on the decline, and the surface convergence is pitiful to say the least.

The dry stable air is winning out for the time being

[windstorm99]

If this wave becomes a tropical cyclone which right now does not look that way it will most likely turn away from the united states given the pattern right now.Adrian

[DESTRUCTION5]

system looks to be on life support. Just took a look at a garp visible sat loop and cannot see a surface circulation any longer. Convection is on the decline, and the surface convergence is pitiful to say the least.

The dry stable air is winning out for the time being

Agreed..the storms last night in SFL were 10 times worse than this thing looks right now..

[wxman57]

system looks to be on life support. Just took a look at a garp visible sat loop and cannot see a surface circulation any longer. Convection is on the decline, and the surface convergence is pitiful to say the least.

The dry stable air is winning out for the time being

Yeah, I'm seeing the same thing, Derek. Also noticing that east-west band of convection heading north right into the disturbance. It's not banding inward, just going to overtake it. That can't be good for development.

[Derek Ortt]

I see it somewhat

If anything, any development would not occur for several days and would be on the northern portion of the wave, wherethe vorticity is the greatest.

As an aside, I have noticed many times (especially in TD 2 in 2000 and 2003) that a small convective burst near the center comes at the end of the life cycle of these weak systems. Maybe the shear triggers a brief convective burst, not really sure. I have not really looked into that aspect of intensity change (only have focused on TS and higher)

[tailgater]

system looks to be on life support. Just took a look at a garp visible sat loop and cannot see a surface circulation any longer. Convection is on the decline, and the surface convergence is pitiful to say the least.

The dry stable air is winning out for the time being

Yes, I never did see any LOW level inflow, just midlevel IMHO.

[tolakram]

To my untrained eyes it's looking pretty good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I see what looks like banding to the north and possibly to the south.

What am I missing (and I know I'm missing something). Why did the convection appear to drop south?

[cheezyWXguy]

To my untrained eyes it's looking pretty good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I see what looks like banding to the north and possibly to the south.

What am I missing (and I know I'm missing something). Why did the convection appear to drop south?

The Convection did drop south, but is pulling away from the center...that convective "band" on the north side is actually where, at least what used to be the center, is located...the storm is looking worse and more ragged now than it did last night. Chances are that this wont have any chance to develop until it gets at least to the caribbean