Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

['CaneFreak]

Well, to put it simply...this wave is attached to the ITCZ and the circulation center is on the northern side of the convection and the general motion is 280 at 12 to 15 kts...RHs are sitting in the 60 to 65 % range and dropping as it moves further west...its gonna need to reform some kind of center in the center of this mass of t-storms and start wrapping some convection inward (called inflow). Right now it is not looking good, mainly due to the dry air and the misplacement of the mid and low level centers. They SHOULD be at the center of the deep convection. However, in this case they are not. Relative motion of the convection (south) is due to the reforming of a center further north (VERY BAD) of the deep convection and this is bad because the driest air is north as well. Not looking good right now.

[Cyclone1]

Well, it's our best looking INVEST so far... But yeah, it proabably won't develop further today.

[alan1961]

just hold on guys, this little chap has seems to be enlarging itself and getting that curved feature that all storms go through when there ready to spring a surprise, although its centre is somewhat deficient (if theirs one at all) its still maintaining somekind of shape and occasionally that can be enough till that surprise reformation comes, lets settle for at least something to watch for now

[Aric Dunn]

554
ABNT20 KNHC 031507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE... AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Aric Dunn]

very interesting.. hmm

[KatDaddy]

Interesting Indeed..........

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE... AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Cyclone1]

Finally! We hear the infamous line "could form in the next day or so"! I've waited all year to hear that!

[Derek Ortt]

I have to strongly disagree with the 11:30 A.M. TWO. I just do not see this as organizing and see this as having become less organized. Yes, 3 hours ago the T numbers increased, but since then everything has unravled somewhat.


If I am wrong, may I be ripped to shreds

[gatorcane]

here we go folks

['CaneFreak]

I am extremely suprised by that....looking interesting....HMMMMMMM....maybe it will develop....but just further on down the road....

[cheezyWXguy]

Whoa! I thought it lost some of its steam...I didnt think it was any better organized, but maybe theyre seeing something Im not

['CaneFreak]

I have to strongly disagree with the 11:30 A.M. TWO. I just do not see this as organizing and see this as having become less organized. Yes, 3 hours ago the T numbers increased, but since then everything has unravled somewhat.


If I am wrong, may I be ripped to shreds

I agree Derek, I am quite surprised myself...this thing is a mess....if they had said that around 8 am this morning, then I would have agreed with them...but now...not so much...

[wxman57]

Before everyone gets TOO excited, they're not saying any more than we've been saying here. Yes, there's a chance that this could become a TD (or even a weak TS) in the next few days. But it's fighting a tough battle, so the chances are less than 50-50 (I'd estimate 30%, possibly a bit less). Conditions aloft are still forecast to become less favorable along its projected path. So even if it were to become a TD it may not be able to hold together for long.

But I suppose it's something for you folks to discuss during this typically dead time of the season.

[cheezyWXguy]

I have to strongly disagree with the 11:30 A.M. TWO. I just do not see this as organizing and see this as having become less organized. Yes, 3 hours ago the T numbers increased, but since then everything has unravled somewhat.


If I am wrong, may I be ripped to shreds

I still think youre right about this storm, Derek, and unless something big happens, its not gonna do much for a while

[CrazyC83]

If it can survive the next 36 hours, I think it is in the clear and can become Chantal (Hurricane Chantal?). However, it will be tough going in the short term.

['CaneFreak]

Maybe they wrote this TWO earlier and then just had somebody post it at 11 AM while the forecasters went off to grab a bite to eat

[Weatherfreak000]

Before everyone gets TOO excited, they're not saying any more than we've been saying here. Yes, there's a chance that this could become a TD (or even a weak TS) in the next few days. But it's fighting a tough battle, so the chances are less than 50-50 (I'd estimate 30%, possibly a bit less). Conditions aloft are still forecast to become less favorable along its projected path. So even if it were to become a TD it may not be able to hold together for long.

But I suppose it's something for you folks to discuss during this typically dead time of the season.

No misinterpretation here, 30% chance given Jeff Master's NHC Outlook Probs...Still Typical.


Now however if we see, "This system has gotten slightly better organized, and a Tropical Depression could form later today or tomorrow" Really soon, then perhaps 50%

[wxman57]

If it can survive the next 36 hours, I think it is in the clear and can become Chantal (Hurricane Chantal?). However, it will be tough going in the short term.

I notice that now the GFS is also forecasting increasing westerly winds aloft by later this week across the eastern Caribbean east to 50W. That agrees with the ECMWF's forecast of increasing shear from 850-200mb as the week progresses in the path of the disturbance. See the lower left panel of this ECMWF tropical loop:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Therefore, should this disturbance survive the next 36 hours it appears that it will run into increasingly unfavorable upper-level wind flow. The best conditions for development are now, not beyond 36 hours.

[HeeBGBz]

Looks pretty good to me. But what do I know?

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't this be TD#1, and not TD#3, since Andrea and Barry were never classified as TD's?

Even though Andrea and Barry were never classified as TD's, technically they still had to pass through that stage to become a TS. For instance, a car cannot go from 0 mph to 60 mph without going through 30 mph (unless it's a ferarri ).

Correct, they were just non-tropical lows when they were at that stage. (Barry actually did become a TD first in the post-storm analysis)