Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Derek Ortt]

a system can go directly from the tropical wave phase to the TS phase if a closed circulation does not form until winds are of TS force. Happens quite frequently

[Windsurfer_NYC]

See the lower left panel of this ECMWF tropical loop:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

I think we need to use the URL button to put in working links with this new system...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Emmett_Brown]

For those that might have missed it, the quickscat pass shows a low level circulation, albeit small.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

So, even though it is not impressive, it does look like a closed low. Now, onto the highly subjective question... how much more organization would need to occur before this is considered a TD?

[Cyclone1]

For those that might have missed it, the quickscat pass shows a low level circulation, albeit small.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

So, even though it is not impressive, it does look like a closed low. Now, onto the highly subjective question... how much more organization would need to occur before this is considered a TD?

If it's got a closed sfc low, shouldn't it be one already?

[punkyg]

For those that might have missed it, the quickscat pass shows a low level circulation, albeit small.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

So, even though it is not impressive, it does look like a closed low. Now, onto the highly subjective question... how much more organization would need to occur before this is considered a TD?

If it's got a closed sfc low, shouldn't it be one already?

I say it should,
but they want it to look better before they upgrade it. man i like saying upgrade

['CaneFreak]

For those that might have missed it, the quickscat pass shows a low level circulation, albeit small.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

So, even though it is not impressive, it does look like a closed low. Now, onto the highly subjective question... how much more organization would need to occur before this is considered a TD?

If it's got a closed sfc low, shouldn't it be one already?

Needs more inflow I would say...looks rather grotesque right now...convection seems to be on the decrease as well...possibly due to the dry surrounding air and a diurnal minimum? T numbers were in the 1.5 range...there must only be a couple more factors that need to be present before we classify it..I think in general t numbers need to be in the 2.5 range generally before a system is classified...so....structurally, its almost there...

[southerngreen]

a system can go directly from the tropical wave phase to the TS phase if a closed circulation does not form until winds are of TS force. Happens quite frequently

i can't remember the stats on opal (oct 95?) but i went to work in the morning and there was mild interest near the yucatan and by the next day we had the real thing - sometimes they seem to skip stages entirely

[Emmett_Brown]

For those that might have missed it, the quickscat pass shows a low level circulation, albeit small.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

So, even though it is not impressive, it does look like a closed low. Now, onto the highly subjective question... how much more organization would need to occur before this is considered a TD?

If it's got a closed sfc low, shouldn't it be one already?

Needs more inflow I would say...looks rather grotesque right now...convection seems to be on the decrease as well...possibly due to the dry surrounding air and a diurnal minimum? T numbers were in the 1.5 range...there must only be a couple more factors that need to be present before we classify it..I think in general t numbers need to be in the 2.5 range generally before a system is classified...so....structurally, its almost there...

Thanks. 2.5 T numbers then... I always wondered about that. I have seen some pretty lame looking lows upgraded in the past, but they were usually closer to home.

[wxman57]

For those that might have missed it, the quickscat pass shows a low level circulation, albeit small.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

So, even though it is not impressive, it does look like a closed low. Now, onto the highly subjective question... how much more organization would need to occur before this is considered a TD?

If it's got a closed sfc low, shouldn't it be one already?

I believe that those QuikSCAT winds indicate the possibility of a surface circulation, but they're detecting winds above the surface (cloud movements). Even if the disturbance has/had an LLC, it's general lack of organization is not good enough for the NHC to classify it, particularly since it's well out to sea and no threat to anyone for at least 5-6 days. So even though a disturbance might have an LLC, the NHC forecasters have demonstrated that they won't classify a disturbance out in the "middle of nowhere" as a TD unless it is showing definite signs of an LLC and is increasing in organization (and, i might add, that conditions in its path are forecast to be favorable for development).

So all we have now is a disturbance that might have an LLC. But thunderstorms have diminished in the past 2-3 hours, and conditions aloft in its path are forecast to be increasingly unfavorable for development. In this case, the NHC will most likely just watch it today and tomorrow for some significant signs of organization before jumping the gun and calling it a TD. There's no rush, it's not going to affect anyone soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well I just watched the weather channel for a minute and the person who was on the tropical update said that it could be upgraded at any time...im not sure Id go that far, but i think its still possible

[Chacor]

Needs more inflow I would say...looks rather grotesque right now...convection seems to be on the decrease as well...possibly due to the dry surrounding air and a diurnal minimum? T numbers were in the 1.5 range...there must only be a couple more factors that need to be present before we classify it..I think in general t numbers need to be in the 2.5 range generally before a system is classified...so....structurally, its almost there...

Thanks. 2.5 T numbers then... I always wondered about that. I have seen some pretty lame looking lows upgraded in the past, but they were usually closer to home.

T2.5 is actually tropical storm strength classification...

[Chacor]

Well I just watched the weather channel for a minute and the person who was on the tropical update said that it could be upgraded at any time...im not sure Id go that far, but i think its still possible

Not really likely in the next 6-12 hours or so unless something changes big-time, I'd say.

[Cyclone1]

Yeah, I'd say nothing in the next 6 hours, but maybe tonight. Doesn't look that bad.

['CaneFreak]

Needs more inflow I would say...looks rather grotesque right now...convection seems to be on the decrease as well...possibly due to the dry surrounding air and a diurnal minimum? T numbers were in the 1.5 range...there must only be a couple more factors that need to be present before we classify it..I think in general t numbers need to be in the 2.5 range generally before a system is classified...so....structurally, its almost there...

Thanks. 2.5 T numbers then... I always wondered about that. I have seen some pretty lame looking lows upgraded in the past, but they were usually closer to home.

T2.5 is actually tropical storm strength classification...

true...T 2.0 is good enough then....sorry...

[TPACane07]

in the "for what it's worth" department, Dennis (2005) formed on 7/4/05, at 12.5/63.1 (we all know how he turned out)

dennis was born further west, but roughly a comparable latitude. (10ish vs 12.5)

I will be watching CMC model with some interest, as it has been fairly on point so far with the two named storms. Latest run I saw (0Z) showed some reflection heading into East Caribbean...but of course, way too early to hang your hat on anything.

[Chacor]

Just to remind everyone the criteria for a TCFA...
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/TCFA_Checklist.htm

Also, that link has this note:
"* In most situations, (ie, organized convection for at least 12 hrs, >25 kt sfc wind detected), NHC will go directly to advisory issuance!"

[Chacor]

[Derecho]

Actually for unreconned African T-waves T 1.5 for an extended period of time, or any T 2.0, seems to typically be where TD advisories start.

[JonathanBelles]

It looks good from first glance, low shear, high water temps. good circulation.

[WmE]

It looks good from first glance, low shear, high water temps. good circulation.

Not to be forgotten the dry air!