Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Aric Dunn]

i guess the only other thing to note about the dry .. (since we have re inner rated that point a lot!) is that the main area of dry air is not pressing south which would not make it any worse for the system than it already is.. and if it were to some how slow down .. there is plenty of moist air right behind it.. moving east but that is not likely . .just mentioning it. for what ever reason


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe they wrote this TWO earlier and then just had somebody post it at 11 AM while the forecasters went off to grab a bite to eat

I think that is exactly what happened! I find it strange the NHC put that out as it was clearly looking worse in each passing frame. If the outlook came in at 8:00 am, then it would make much more sense.

highly doubt it.. the fact that they wrote it is very clear! the overall circulation was much improved from the previous day and over night i do not disagree with that at all .. as for it looking worse every frame by frame, every system.. i mean ever last one of them .. during development .. pulses up and pulses down .. it is of no consequence

[Derek Ortt]

do NOT use the conventional WV to determine dry air. It detects upper level dry air. Use microwave imagery (its better, but not perfect), or wait for a G-IV flight

[Aric Dunn]

do NOT use the conventional WV to determine dry air. It detects upper level dry air. Use microwave imagery (its better, but not perfect), or wait for a G-IV flight

agreed but its really all i have access to.. at the present time.. so i use it sparingly ..

well there is this from cimss.. mid level WV



or i guess this

[Aric Dunn]

this is also interesting.. The QBO is almost Identical as 2005..
2005 -0.45 -0.88 0.06 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04
2006 -18.83 -11.24 -0.38 5.00 10.36 11.47 10.75 9.10 10.20 10.86 10.10 6.21
2007 2.61 2.43 1.24 -5.18 -14.07 -21.34 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00

2005 being the most negative value (or west wind) in the entire time of keeping track of the QBO since the 1940's

wish i could go into more detail about ..
its just a lot to cover.. but its the 30MB zonal equatorial winds.. the QBo has been used alot over the years but has fallen out because it has been unable to show any good data since we started the active period again .. if you look back the QBO has been fairly consistent. but in recent years it has been highly erratic (its the best word i can describe it) see it normally switches from west to east near the equator ever few years.. but recently it has been doing nearly every other year going back to either negative or positive (east or west)
any way that was longer than i was wanting but oh well
here is a link to the data... starting left January
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data

i guess this really is not the thread fro this .. ? hmm..

i m actually in the process of writing a program that will sort through the data and help compare active years and times with very intense hurricanes

[gatorcane]

Just looking at the infrared loop really makes me wonder....its VERY suspicious and there is clear evidence of a twist with some kind of outflow (at least it appears to be outflow).

This thing needs careful watching IMHO.

[windstorm99]

Animated Visible...

[knotimpaired]

Luis,

We will be watching your posts carefully.

We have a friday morning flight over and have reservations in Salinas for the weekend.

Or maybe we may just stay home, time will tell.

K

[gatorcane]

thanks for the visible loop. Despite the huge thunderstorm complexes we would like to see, it looks like it could be on its way to a TD based on sat inspection.

[Derek Ortt]

QBO has no affect on TCs. Totally disproven in a class project a few years ago, and NOAA no longer uses it as a predictor

[Brent]

Animated Visible...

Hmmmm... that looks more interesting than I thought it would. Maybe it does have a chance. It certainly looks decent for Early July in the middle of the Atlantic.

[msbee]

There seems to be a consensus building from the models to track this towards the NE Caribbean.To my fellow NE Caribbean islands members,it's not time to panic or to put shutters,but to watch this system in the next few days to see what it does.Hopefully it will bring needed rain to some of the islands as there are deficits of rain in some of them,including here in Southern Puerto Rico.So guys and gals of the islands,stay tuned here as you will have all the information necessary for us to act acordinly.

Gee Thanks Luis!
The timing of this is not good.
My husband leaves tomorrow for a trip off island and I leave Monday for a trip . So if this system does track our way, what is the time estimate for it to be in our neighborhood?
it will be just my luck.. a big blow on the weekend when I am home alone or a big blow on Monday and I can't leave.

[Aric Dunn]

QBO has no affect on TCs. Totally disproven in a class project a few years ago, and NOAA no longer uses it as a predictor

that i know... i think i mentioned it is not used anymore.. in my post.. i was just going to go over the data again for my own curiosity.. although when i talked with Dr.gray at the conference this past May we went over a lot of it . he still keeps track and uses it .but know where near what it used to be

[cycloneye]

There seems to be a consensus building from the models to track this towards the NE Caribbean.To my fellow NE Caribbean islands members,it's not time to panic or to put shutters,but to watch this system in the next few days to see what it does.Hopefully it will bring needed rain to some of the islands as there are deficits of rain in some of them,including here in Southern Puerto Rico.So guys and gals of the islands,stay tuned here as you will have all the information necessary for us to act acordinly.

Gee Thanks Luis!
The timing of this is not good.
My husband leaves tomorrow for a trip off island and I leave Monday for a trip . So if this system does track our way, what is the time estimate for it to be in our neighborhood?
it will be just my luck.. a big blow on the weekend when I am home alone or a big blow on Monday and I can't leave.

Oh boy what timing for you.About when we can expect the arrival of this system,what I can tell you is that here the folks of the TV weather sections are saying that by Monday it will be arriving in our longitud.That means that Sunday is the day for you that are more east.But Barbara,it's far away that still many things can happen,from being a named storm,to weaken to an open wave so nothing is like a stone with this.Keep visiting storm2k as the information will be posted so you can plan ahead of time.

[wxman57]

By the way, the GFDL is being run now. It shows a weak low through 126 hrs. Just 25-30 kts by 3 days, after an early forecast of up to 40 kts prior to day 3.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007070312-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I can see a circulation center near 10.5N/40.2W as of 2:45pm CDT. All convection is south of this point, but there are some significant squalls to the south. If tomorrow wasn't supposed to be a holiday for me, I'd say not too much chance the NHC will call it a depression tomorrow. But since I am SUPPOSED to be off, chances are higher it'll flare-up overnight and the NHC will declare it. Still, I'd say less than a 50-50 chance. And in the long run, at the very MOST a weak TS for the NE Caribbean. More likely just enhanced thunderstorms there Sun/Mon.

[WindRunner]

By the way, the GFDL is being run now. It shows a weak low through 126 hrs. Just 25-30 kts by 3 days, after an early forecast of up to 40 kts prior to day 3.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007070312-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I can see a circulation center near 10.5N/40.2W as of 2:45pm CDT. All convection is south of this point, but there are some significant squalls to the south. If tomorrow wasn't supposed to be a holiday for me, I'd say not too much chance the NHC will call it a depression tomorrow. But since I am SUPPOSED to be off, chances are higher it'll flare-up overnight and the NHC will declare it. Still, I'd say less than a 50-50 chance. And in the long run, at the very MOST a weak TS for the NE Caribbean. More likely just enhanced thunderstorms there Sun/Mon.

Even if it does flare up over night, I doubt they would declare anything before 5pm tomorrow. Persistence is they key in this area at this time of year, and the NHC will always err on the conservative side in these situations in order to be sure it's going to at least have a decent chance and further development.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I know this is officially just an invest...
But to my amateur eyes:
To me this looks like a tropical depression or tropical storm
minimal tropical storm...
No harm at stating an educated guess...

The banding is like that of a tropical storm
This is the most "tropical" "invest" I have seen
in a while....

[curtadams]

This doesn't look good on IR, but it looks pretty good on RGB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html
There is a clearly defined low cloud circulation, which based on its size and persistance pretty much has to go to the surface. The center is obviously emitting a tongue of convection off to its SW (that started around 17:45 Z). It's completely free of the ITCZ on the east although it's still attached on the west (broke from the E side of the ITCZ yesterday afternoon). We know from the quickscat that it's got at least 30 kt winds. The dry air to its north makes the IR presentation really ugly since convection is suppressed on all sides but the S - but it's still a functioning cyclone.

Right now the only reason I can see to not call it a TD is the technicality of being partially attached to the ITCZ.

[Aric Dunn]

This doesn't look good on IR, but it looks pretty good on RGB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html
There is a clearly defined low cloud circulation, which based on its size and persistance pretty much has to go to the surface. The center is obviously emitting a tongue of convection off to its SW (that started around 17:45 Z). It's completely free of the ITCZ on the east although it's still attached on the west (broke from the E side of the ITCZ yesterday afternoon). We know from the quickscat that it's got at least 30 kt winds. The dry air to its north makes the IR presentation really ugly since convection is suppressed on all sides but the S - but it's still a functioning cyclone.

Right now the only reason I can see to not call it a TD is the technicality of being partially attached to the ITCZ.

you can see whats left of the ITCZ that its attached to on this image... it the dark blue band that is heading wnw away from the sw side of the circ

[Aric Dunn]

or on this loop ..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html