Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[SouthFloridawx]

...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If this still looks this organized and has
banding features that are this good
when it goes into the Caribbean...all
eyes will be on it...assuming we
see the lessening shear over the caribbean
that jeff masters hinted at- he hinted at a basin
reduction in shear that is characteristic of August
Cape Verde season about to began folks? Perhaps
Time will tell...
But with building moisture it could get
stronger the next few days...and once
it reaches the central caribbean it will really
have my attention...

[SouthFloridawx]

Also to note, in addition to my post above...

It looks like the Shear is relaxing a bit also...

[WeatherEmperor]

Also to note, in addition to my post above...

It looks like the Shear is relaxing a bit also...

Forgive me for asking, but what is the shear forecast to be in the next 2-3 days? Im sure it has been answered but things are going sooo fast here that I could not find the answer.

<RICKY>

[Aric Dunn]

Also to note, in addition to my post above...

It looks like the Shear is relaxing a bit also...

umm. it has been relaxed . well at least in respect to our system since it has not experienced shear over 10 kts in a while since its moving with whatever easterly shear there is.. and is moving into even less shear ahead of it.. but yeah

[SouthFloridawx]

Also to note, in addition to my post above...

It looks like the Shear is relaxing a bit also...

Forgive me for asking, but what is the shear forecast to be in the next 2-3 days? Im sure it has been answered but things are going sooo fast here that I could not find the answer.

<RICKY>

I am basing this on my observations of the VIS sat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You can find shear forecasts on the drop down boxes, for a variety of different models from this link... You can change it to about 4 different shear forecast on the column labeled, "Field".

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Aric Dunn]

Also to note, in addition to my post above...

It looks like the Shear is relaxing a bit also...

Forgive me for asking, but what is the shear forecast to be in the next 2-3 days? Im sure it has been answered but things are going sooo fast here that I could not find the answer.

<RICKY>

50 50 some models increase it slightly (not much ) and others dont do to much .. until it would be nearing or north of the islands.. or in the eastern carrib.. in a nut shell

[windstorm99]

Windshear 96hrs out...

[Berwick Bay]

I think its looking better. Its like two steps forward then one back. Last night, two steps forward with the convection flare up. Midday today, one step back, with convection pushed to the south side of a potential center. Late afternoon it looking more symetrical again (not perfect), you've got something that looks like a feeder band on visual to the south. Are cnditions perfect (dry air etc..) no, but I think this system is crossing some kind of threshhold now, and will likely be upgraded (best bet tomorrow).

[curtadams]

The ICTZ to the W is starting to bend. If the storm gets any stronger it'll turn it into a feeder band.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah even the gfs does not keep the shear that it develops over the eastern carrib for long.. and if the system were to go north of the islands the shear is light.. . so it will be dependent on its path ..

[Nimbus]

As Derek pointed out the dry air is worse in the upper atmosphere.
We have seen small circulations develop before with the SAL in close proximity to the center. The warm ocean surface provides just enough inflow to sustain a circulation with convection over the center. If this were a large storm with an eye it would have gulped a load of dry air by now.

The shear forecast may change down the road.

[Aric Dunn]

The ICTZ to the W is starting to bend. If the storm gets any stronger it'll turn it into a feeder band.

yeah the ITCZ is beginning to buckle and weaken around the system .. it wont be long .. till it free

[SouthFloridawx]

WV not looking too bad behind this system, as of right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

[boca]

Looks like some firing around the center of circulation in the last frames.

[Cyclone1]

When its independent of the ITCZ, then it should be upgraded. Will it? No one knows, but it should be.

[gatorcane]

it's definitely looking better. I'm anxiously awaiting the next TWO.

BTW I am supposed to fly into St. Croix this weekend for a wedding. It just figures that a tropical system may be bearing down on the islands.

[skysummit]

Still continues to look better, and I still feel convection will be increasing over the next few hours. Cloud cover in the northern half is on the increase. I said it a couple hours ago about it looking better, however, I was accused of looking at illusions and outflow boundaries LOL

[windstorm99]

According to the maps i posted above windshear looks ok for future development.Different models point on a different outlook as far as shear is concerned.

[Aric Dunn]

that is cool loking .. notice the mid level clouds and or moisture filling in around the system on the RGB .. you get the right sun angle and see some cool things sometimes..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html