Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[MiamiensisWx]

Aric, where do you find all those satellite links?

The images originate from the Navy site. Look at this link.

[Aric Dunn]

im sorry about all the images.. but this one is much more new.... just a few minutes ago.. remember how i said it looks like its trying to wrap up the east side here you go ...

and also you can see the center near 10.2 ish ... in this one as well ..

again i updated it with .. the center circled

[Aric Dunn]

I m not sure if this could be any clearer.. latest up to date quikscat..


it speaks for its self..

well a couple of hours ago.. right when that burst started..

[canetracker]

Aric you really know how to prove your point. Great pics and have to say I agree. We may have a classified TD soon, but it has to fight some battles to survive. It is interesting to watch.

[Aric Dunn]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 10N39W...
OR ABOUT 1300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W.

[Stephanie]

Nice little circulation going there!

[vacanechaser]

convection is increasing as well... nice spin... good call aric...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[philnyc]

Nice call on that Aric. Clearly seems convection is trying to wrap around the center. BTW, where'd you get that last Quikscat image? It's clearly from the NAVY site, with those mnumbers on the top left, but I can't locate it. Help?

[Normandy]

Well, now the question is not whether it will develop or not, but how strong it will get?

[Damar91]

Looking at the WV loop though, there seems to be tons of dry air ahead. Any reason to think this will change?

[Aric Dunn]

Nice call on that Aric. Clearly seems convection is trying to wrap around the center. BTW, where'd you get that last Quikscat image? It's clearly from the NAVY site, with those mnumbers on the top left, but I can't locate it. Help?

its from the other site .. i guess you can call it the back up site.. it has some other data than the main one does not

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[gatorcane]

looking at it this evening and seeing a new convection burst with good spin, I continue to think it is on its way to a TD.

watching and hoping it poofs as it is at a very low lattitude which will give it less time for recurvature...

and hoping that it doesn't ruin my St. Croix plans this weekend....

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the WV loop though, there seems to be tons of dry air ahead. Any reason to think this will change?

i think its still just staying far enough away.. (at the moment) to allow some moddest development.. down the road i belive that the moisture that is to its east will eventually catch up

[benny]

My guess is that it could become a TD tomorrow--around 1200 utc. that's when the system has looked the best with the semidiurnal convective maximum and is usually a decision-time for nhc. it does seem that this system could be short-lived with westerly shear forecast to increase and such a small little thing susceptible to the dry air to the north...

[philnyc]

Nice call on that Aric. Clearly seems convection is trying to wrap around the center. BTW, where'd you get that last Quikscat image? It's clearly from the NAVY site, with those mnumbers on the top left, but I can't locate it. Help?

its from the other site .. i guess you can call it the back up site.. it has some other data than the main one does not

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Thanks so much, Aric. You are a font of good data sources. I hope I can return the favor eventually. I've been following hurricanes for a long time and just got out of Penn State's Certification Program. And I will have to say that all of the data is pointing towards a very accurate center fix by you. I am impressed.

[Damar91]

Between the SST in the Carribean and the track of the forecast models so far, it is probably in everyones interest that the dry air kills this thing......

[jrod]

Thanks Aric.

I suprised I didn't have that link.

[philnyc]

Looking at the WV loop though, there seems to be tons of dry air ahead. Any reason to think this will change?

i think its still just staying far enough away.. (at the moment) to allow some moddest development.. down the road i belive that the moisture that is to its east will eventually catch up

Look at this GFS GLOBAL forecast for 700mb RH at 12Z on the 4th:



Seems like it just keeps riding along that thin line between plenty of moisture and lower amounts. This is important to watch because the shear is not a factor for the next couple of days and the SSTs are fine.

P.S. The star indicates 10N 40W

[gatorcane]

Between the SST in the Carribean and the track of the forecast models so far, it is probably in everyones interest that the dry air kills this thing......

Agreed, I know it is early but we all have to wonder if this thing can hold on or get going, it could be an interesting situation down the road as models show it taking a path that could impact the islands. Models are not showing recurvature at the moment but I suppose we can't trust them until this thing can get more concentrated (if it even does).

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 040046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC WED JUL 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070704 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070704 0000 070704 1200 070705 0000 070705 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 40.7W 10.7N 42.3W 10.9N 43.9W 11.0N 46.0W
BAMD 10.5N 40.7W 10.9N 43.0W 11.2N 45.2W 11.4N 47.6W
BAMM 10.5N 40.7W 10.9N 42.4W 11.2N 44.1W 11.5N 46.1W
LBAR 10.5N 40.7W 11.0N 43.2W 11.6N 46.1W 12.1N 49.2W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070706 0000 070707 0000 070708 0000 070709 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 48.2W 12.7N 52.6W 14.5N 58.0W 17.2N 64.6W
BAMD 11.8N 49.9W 12.9N 53.9W 14.7N 57.6W 16.9N 61.8W
BAMM 12.1N 48.2W 13.8N 52.8W 16.0N 57.2W 18.4N 62.6W
LBAR 12.8N 52.5W 14.1N 58.4W 16.1N 62.3W 17.5N 66.4W
SHIP 29KTS 32KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 29KTS 32KTS 35KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 40.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 38.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 36.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



Highest winds intensity from ship haved increased to tropical storm status (39kts)