Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Aric Dunn]

Nice call on that Aric. Clearly seems convection is trying to wrap around the center. BTW, where'd you get that last Quikscat image? It's clearly from the NAVY site, with those mnumbers on the top left, but I can't locate it. Help?

its from the other site .. i guess you can call it the back up site.. it has some other data than the main one does not

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Thanks so much, Aric. You are a font of good data sources. I hope I can return the favor eventually. I've been following hurricanes for a long time and just got out of Penn State's Certification Program. And I will have to say that all of the data is pointing towards a very accurate center fix by you. I am impressed.

thankyou.. i too have been following the tropics for a long time (nearly 15 years ) learning from the internet.. lol ; and books. i have been chasing storms since 99 ish .. although i have been through more . i have become very acustom at the details of satellite and microwave images as well as raw data over the years.. i guess after so long you see how it all works .. except its hard sometimes to put real meteorological terms to some of it. but i try to keep up to date on it all . I have met and talked candidly many time with max mayfield , dr.gray, and phil klotsbock (cant spell that.. and less of max than the others)as well as interview them and a few others from the NHC... anyway.. i dont know as much as i could i guess .. being that I have no degree in meteorology. but i am well educated.. is the best way to put it.. lol what am i doing.. why did i type so much .....

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the WV loop though, there seems to be tons of dry air ahead. Any reason to think this will change?

i think its still just staying far enough away.. (at the moment) to allow some moddest development.. down the road i belive that the moisture that is to its east will eventually catch up

Look at this GFS GLOBAL forecast for 700mb RH at 12Z on the 4th:



Seems like it just keeps riding along that thin line between plenty of moisture and lower amounts. This is important to watch because the shear is not a factor for the next couple of days and the SSTs are fine.

P.S. The star indicates 10N 40W

i agree hard to tell the lat and lon on that..

[miamicanes177]

10.5N 40.7W....not 10.65N

[Aric Dunn]

10.5N 40.7W....not 10.65N

huh

[mikey]

Anyone got a link to historical storms in this area for this date?

[WindRunner]

AL, 96, 2007070400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 407W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015,

10.5N/40.7W confirms what I was think Aric . . . the microwave data you posted was showing the mid-level center, which, in weak or somewhat sheared systems (this qualifies under both) is not lined up to low level circulation center. If you notice, your mid-level fix was off in the same direction it would be blown by the shear, southeastward.

[gatorcane]

SHIPS increases intensity -- not a good sign at all. Just great....

How about the latest model runs...anybody???

[Grease Monkey]

Looking at the water vapor loop. Dry air doesn't look that bad to me. It's not great, but it looks like enough to keep it alive.

[cycloneye]

SHIPS increases intensity -- not a good sign at all. Just great....

How about the latest model runs...anybody???

I posted the 00:00z run at the top of this page.

[Aric Dunn]

AL, 96, 2007070400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 407W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015,

10.5N/40.7W confirms what I was think Aric . . . the microwave data you posted was showing the mid-level center, which, in weak or somewhat sheared systems (this qualifies under both) is not lined up to low level circulation center. If you notice, your mid-level fix was off in the same direction it would be blown by the shear, southeastward.

again i assure you its not that far north,,, i personally dont pay much attention to where models initalize systems(especially with such new systems.and one that are not TD yet ).. becasue if you remember they dont do to well at all .. and the nHC at 805.. said near 10N

oh and as for a mid level circ.. there has not been much of one all day because only recently .. has there been convection.. i have been tracking the exposed center all day and as it became dark it was still clearly visible.. now it has been clouded over.. but not when those microwave imges came in.. so they had a clear shot to the surface almost

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic of the tracks for the 00:00z run of the tropical models.

[Stratosphere747]

It was already pointed out earlier today that some were looking to far south for the center. I believe it was 57 with the Garp images.

[gatorcane]

Thanks for the graphical run Luis....obviously you will be keeping a close eye on the situation....as the models are taking it close to Puerto Rico long-term...

[philnyc]

i think its still just staying far enough away.. (at the moment) to allow some moddest development.. down the road i belive that the moisture that is to its east will eventually catch up[/quote]


Look at this GFS GLOBAL forecast for 700mb RH at 12Z on the 4th:



Seems like it just keeps riding along that thin line between plenty of moisture and lower amounts. This is important to watch because the shear is not a factor for the next couple of days and the SSTs are fine.

P.S. The star indicates 10N 40W[/quote]

i agree hard to tell the lat and lon on that..[/quote]


Yeah, but I like their maps (from NOAA ARL). They help you to visualize what's going on. But they don't put coordinates on, other than marking the centerpoint you designate with a star. If I post them again, I'll be sure to note that or annotate the map (yeesh! don't really want to annotate, not at the speed you guys are going!)

And as someone said here earlier today (one of the moderators), people have to stop looking at the water vapor loop as a guide for dry air. I admit I always look at it, but it's really only valid for upper levels, and often misses middle level, and especially low level water vapor. You have to look at 700mb for a good proxy, and 500mb for really developed storms.

[jrod]

Bertha in '96 started off in the same place and about the same time of year.

[Aric Dunn]

AL, 96, 2007070400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 407W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015,

10.5N/40.7W confirms what I was think Aric . . . the microwave data you posted was showing the mid-level center, which, in weak or somewhat sheared systems (this qualifies under both) is not lined up to low level circulation center. If you notice, your mid-level fix was off in the same direction it would be blown by the shear, southeastward.

oh and the quickscat should tell you that its not that far north since well it measure either surface motion or low cloud motion.. and not only that... whatever mid level was possibly around was not well defined enough for the microwave images to pick up on it.. if they would at all..hang on need to research the level that the microwave images penetrate to? ..

[philnyc]

AL, 96, 2007070400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 407W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015,

10.5N/40.7W confirms what I was think Aric . . . the microwave data you posted was showing the mid-level center, which, in weak or somewhat sheared systems (this qualifies under both) is not lined up to low level circulation center. If you notice, your mid-level fix was off in the same direction it would be blown by the shear, southeastward.

again i assure you its not that far north,,, i personally dont pay much attention to where models initalize systems(especially with such new systems.and one that are not TD yet ).. becasue if you remember they dont do to well at all .. and the nHC at 805.. said near 10N

oh and as for a mid level circ.. there has not been much of one all day because only recently .. has there been convection.. i have been tracking the exposed center all day and as it became dark it was still clearly visible.. now it has been clouded over.. but not when those microwave imges came in.. so they had a clear shot to the surface almost

I'm going with Aric here. He's got it right so far. What he just said is backed up by the data.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on satellite and quickscat I would have to say that this is very close to being a depression. Interesting system.

[WindRunner]

AL, 96, 2007070400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 407W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015,

10.5N/40.7W confirms what I was think Aric . . . the microwave data you posted was showing the mid-level center, which, in weak or somewhat sheared systems (this qualifies under both) is not lined up to low level circulation center. If you notice, your mid-level fix was off in the same direction it would be blown by the shear, southeastward.

again i assure you its not that far north,,, i personally dont pay much attention to where models initalize systems(especially with such new systems.and one that are not TD yet ).. becasue if you remember they dont do to well at all .. and the nHC at 805.. said near 10N

Hate to break it to you, but that's not from model inits. Yes, the circuclation is initialized there in the models, but it comes from the NHC fix in the ATCF file, used to keep track of the system operationally and a starting point for best track at the end of the season.
And, just FYI, the NHC does not issue anything at 8:05 . . . that comes out of TAFB, the Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch, which is a smaller group that analyzes the tropics with less authority than the NHC. Even though the TWD goes out with the TPC header on it, the forecasters are not associated with the TPC/NHC operations . . . and base their info on the previous (18z/21z) fixes and data. Often, because TWDs are put out early, the data in them can be incorrect compared to an 8pm intermediate advisory, though that was technically put out 5 minutes prior to the TWD. So, in general, anything from the TPC supercedes anything from TAFB, especially the TWD.

Also, the TWD is only accurate to the nearest degree and also, in this case, makes no mention of the center of circulation. Regardless, the data there was based from 18z and would be incorrect anyway.

[MusicCityMan]

Bring on #1/Chantal.. Let the busy season begin..