SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Hot! Hot! Hot!

[Ptarmigan]

5-day HPC QPF forecast shows 3-5 inches for the Houston area.

Link

[Yankeegirl]

That blob in the gulf looks like its moving this way... should be here in time for rush hour... lol... thank god I am off work for 2 weeks!

[Ptarmigan]

That blob in the gulf looks like its moving this way... should be here in time for rush hour... lol... thank god I am off work for 2 weeks!

Sure is. I don't know how fast they are moving. I would say around 10-15 mph. They are about 100 miles from us and I do expect they will get stronger and larger as time progresses. I think it will get stormy by 4:00 AM. Expect to hear some thunder.

[vbhoutex]

That blob in the Gulf has gotten huge overnight.(I wasn't looking at it late last night so I am presuming). Question remains as to whether it will hit the Houston metro area or skirt us to the East. It appears to be a NNE movement which could spare most of the metro area unless it builds further West which is quite possible. We ended up with 1.37" here at the abode yesterday.

Edit- Guess I spoke too soon!!! Looks like the blob has grown west and is still heading N to NNE. I don't think we are going to miss this one unless it just fizzles.

[BreinLa]

What is that blob, is it just thunderstorms? You all know I do not like Blobs in my gulf lol

[Yankeegirl]

Well as of noon-ish here, we havent received much rain... go figure, but there is another blob in gulf that I am watching for maybe later!!

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff:

Different day same story as stationary weather pattern remains



Flash Flood Watch issued for Austin, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Matagorda, Jackson, Wharton, and Colorado counties today.



The following rivers are above flood stage:



Brazos River at Rosharon

Navasota River entire length

Tres Palacios River at Midfield

Lavaca River entire length

Navidad River entire length



The following rivers are above bankfull:



Colorado River

San Bernard River



Discussion:



Endless supply of moisture and favorable trough position will maintain healthy rain chances through the 4th of July. Mid to upper level low is drifting into WC TX this morning continuing the feed of moist SE flow off the Gulf of Mexico. PWS remain at or above 2.0 inches across the entire region with trigger temps in the low to mid 80’s. Large tropical MCS is ongoing across the offshore waters where low level speed convergence is greatest. Expect this complex to weaken over the next few hours with development spreading inland as trigger temps are exceeded and outflow moves northward. With grounds saturated additional rainfall will run-off into already flooding watersheds. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible especially in the Flash Flood Watch area.



Low will continue its drift toward N Mexico Wednesday with high rain chances remaining across the area. There is some light at the end of the tunnel by the end of the week as the low digs into Mexico and upper ridging attempts to gain control of the area. This should reduce rain chances to more typical summer values of 20-30% during the peak heating times. We shall see if the ridge is able to gain some control as past attempts have failed so far this summer. Anyhow the flooding rainfall threat should shift into SW and W TX by this weekend giving area rivers a chance to discharge flood flows and begin recessions.



Tropics:



Vigorous tropical wave midway between Africa and the S American coast is defined by several clusters of deep convection and what appears to be a tight low level swirl on visible images. Quickscat overpass revealed 30kt vectors uncontaminated and an elongated surface reflection although the western side looked loosely closed. A large mid level ridge resides north of the system resulting in a steering toward the due west. Water vapor images along with SAL modeling shows modest amounts of dry air and potential dusty air from Africa N of the system. Wind shear is generally under 15mph and the system is over SST’s of 78 -81 so development is possible. Main negatives are position as this area tends to be not favored until closer to the mid or end of July and the large amounts of dry air to the north of the surface reflection. I suspect little formation of this system (maybe at TD) and strongly like the southern BAMS model for potential forecast track as SHIPS maintains less than a 35kt system. Something that may need a close watch down the road if it makes its way into the western Caribbean.

The bolded portion talks about the blob. I don't like blobs sitting out in my GOM either!! LAst time I saw one do that was 2001 and that became the "A" word!!!!

[Yankeegirl]

What i don't like about this "blob" is that it isn't moving much at all.... I have a wedding Saturday... all i need is something tropical, like allison, to pop up!!!!

[JenBayles]

Still watching the blob... will someone take a look at the Corpus radar and confirm what appears to be my wondering eyes a counter-clockwise swirl?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... p&loop=yes

[Yankeegirl]

Crap, I see it.... Just in time for my wedding!!!!

[vbhoutex]

Still watching the blob... will someone take a look at the Corpus radar and confirm what appears to be my wondering eyes a counter-clockwise swirl?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... p&loop=yes

I posted about this in TT forum. This is wxman57's response:

We were looking at that tstm area as well. However, convection seems to be diminishing offshore and redeveloping inland, and pressures remain high along the TX coast. Possibly you're seeing a mid level vortex. These kind of complexes CAN develop into TCs (Alica, the 1943 hurricane that hit Houston, etc). Always have to watch for persistent convection offshore.

[JenBayles]

I surely remember Alicia starting from such humble beginnings as well David. Thanks for the investigative work!

Yankee, so far it looks like your wedding will at least be a bit dryer than it's been the past few days. Just in case though, have you rented a tent?!

We have a few peeps coming over for a pool day and I'm smoking a mess of ribs and beer-butt chickens. Just hope my fire doesn't go out...

[vbhoutex]

It is still being discussed in this thread in TT forum. At a minimum, it "bears" watching.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=95861&p=1563856#p1563856

Allison started in a somewhat similar fashion also if I remember correctly.

Here's hoping for DRY fourth!!!

[southerngale]

*gives David a giant lollipop* shhhh, no more Allison talk. Enjoy your lollipop!

Allison really started in a similar fashion? I remember local folks saying there wasn't anything to worry about regarding that blob, then the next morning... Allison was born!
(no offense meant for locals...don't even remember which ones... also, NOBODY expected it)

Seriously, that blob doesn't seem to be moving much. I watched the eastern portion of it developing overnight last night and it looked like it was going to move north and give us some hefty storms. I kept waking up all night for some reason and I would check radar, and it simply wasn't moving much. Most of the convection is farther SW now though.

[Yankeegirl]

I am also keeping an eye on it, looks like there really is no motion to it? Almost like it looks like it wants to build or move towards Galveston, but hits a brick wall...? and i remember Allison... Friday night I went to bed, woke up Sat morning from a phone call from my hubby who was stuck at work... I don't think anyone knew what was going on!!!

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff:

Models depict a flash flood threat tonight for SE TX.

12Z runs of GFS and NAM both show extensive MCS formation over the region tonight W of I-45 and E of a line from Matagorda Bay to College Station. Models are producing extremely high rainfall totals and concern is growing that some portion of the area may experience an excessive rainfall event late tonight in Wednesday.

Vort lobe over SC TX is expected to round the eastern edge of upper low over WC TX and interact with moisture tongue feeding northward W of I-45 where PWS of 2.25-2.45 inches reside. GFS and NAM are in good agreement with strong convective development after midnight near Matagorda Bay and then rapidly expanding this development inland toward College Station and Huntsville. Weakening of old Gulf MCS should make low level jet formation favorable into the region by late evening transporting deep moisture and unstable air mass across the region. Pressure falls from Gulf MCS may have in fact produced some surface low pressure near KCRP and that center could move NNE into the SW portions of the area focusing extremely heavy rainfall.

Widespread 3-5 inches of rain may occur tonight W of I-45 with isolated totals up to 10 inches and possibly even higher. GFS and NAM are both producing large QPF bullseyes over the region. Very difficult at this time to determine where the greatest threat is and where convection will fire although the area bounded by Matagorda Bay, Houston, and College Station looks at greatest risk….with Jackson, Calhoun, Wharton, Matagorda, Brazoria, Colorado, and Fort Bend counties looking like good targets.

No real need to repeat what has been repeated the last several days….rainfall of this magnitude will no doubt cause some serious issues given swollen rivers and saturated grounds. We shall see who the unlucky folks are tonight.

[BreinLa]

ewwww this makes me nervous, don't like it at all

[Ptarmigan]

*gives David a giant lollipop* shhhh, no more Allison talk. Enjoy your lollipop!

Allison really started in a similar fashion? I remember local folks saying there wasn't anything to worry about regarding that blob, then the next morning... Allison was born!
(no offense meant for locals...don't even remember which ones... also, NOBODY expected it)

Seriously, that blob doesn't seem to be moving much. I watched the eastern portion of it developing overnight last night and it looked like it was going to move north and give us some hefty storms. I kept waking up all night for some reason and I would check radar, and it simply wasn't moving much. Most of the convection is farther SW now though.

I remember that well with Allison! It was forecasted to be just a upper level low pressure system that would affect Louisiana. Conditions were not great for tropical cyclone development. I remember the big flood in which it was a sunny, but very humid day. I knew something bad would happen.

[TexasSam]

Flood watch for most of the Houston area now.
I notice all that rain in the Gulf has made a sudden left turn and is heading for Galveston, and Galveston Bay. Looks like this could be a VERY wet night!

[Stratosphere747]

Posted this in the TT thread. I doubt anything develops, but intriguing.

Snippet from Houston disco...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
727 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2007

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING SE OF CRP WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST.