Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Aric Dunn]

The dry air and SAL is to the north...Wind shear is very favorable for significant development (5-10kts) and the water is plenty warm to support a hurricane......Why can't this thing get going? I don't know what is stopping this from going crazy.

its still is slightly attached to the ITCZ .. but that should not last much longer.. and its really close to the dry air.. so im sure something is going on with that but again not much

[Cyclone1]

I'm gonna say, TD3 at 11:00 adv. Or 5:00 adv.

tonight.. ?? or tomorrow day

11pm, 5 am

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will be 3 if the nhc upgrades it. I'm thinking when they get visible tomarrow, in if current trends keep up. Then 11am est?

[Aric Dunn]

TAFB personnel ARE associated with the Hurricane Specialists. They ar ein the same building, and both report to Proenza. When it is busy, TAFB people assist the hurricane specialists

thankyou for clearing that up.. details .. sometimes its just not important..

[cycloneye]

pojo,(Shannon) do you think that you will get a notice on Wednesday the 4th from NHC to be ready for the next day to task 96L as the system will be approaching 50w by thursday?

[ROCK]

It will be 3 if the nhc upgrades it. I'm thinking when they get visible tomarrow, in if current trends keep up. Then 11am est?

I agree Matt....


QS
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[windstorm99]

Upper level winds look favorable to me and SST'S only get warmer in its path.

[ROCK]

Plenty of warm semi-bath tub water out there....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Aric Dunn]

It will be 3 if the nhc upgrades it. I'm thinking when they get visible tomarrow, in if current trends keep up. Then 11am est?

I agree Matt....


QS
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

if you want a quick scatt image use the NAVY site.. that sit can have data (which that is nearly 16 hours old) of up 22 hours old

[WindRunner]

TAFB personnel ARE associated with the Hurricane Specialists. They ar ein the same building, and both report to Proenza. When it is busy, TAFB people assist the hurricane specialists

But it seems like the TWD is always out of date when it comes to information, especially when the intermediate advisories change some info - it seems as if it is never reflected in their work? I don't doubt they work together, as many are on the same level as the specialists, but I always found the "special features" part or any other part referencing an area NHC was focusing on to be out of date.

[WindRunner]

It will be 3 if the nhc upgrades it. I'm thinking when they get visible tomarrow, in if current trends keep up. Then 11am est?

I agree Matt....


QS
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

This time of year, it's always the wait for visible. 11am, or possibly 5pm if the convection doesn't hold out well overnight.

[wxmann_91]

Upper level winds look favorable to me and SST'S only get warmer in its path.

[img][/img]

Where did you get that image from?

[Aric Dunn]

TAFB personnel ARE associated with the Hurricane Specialists. They ar ein the same building, and both report to Proenza. When it is busy, TAFB people assist the hurricane specialists

But it seems like the TWD is always out of date when it comes to information, especially when the intermediate advisories change some info - it seems as if it is never reflected in their work? I don't doubt they work together, as many are on the same level as the specialists, but I always found the "special features" part or any other part referencing an area NHC was focusing on to be out of date.

it would be a very sad thing if they did not work together.. i hope they work together .. it would make a lot of sense!!

[windstorm99]

Upper level winds look favorable to me and SST'S only get warmer in its path.

[img][/img]

Where did you get that image from?

From the CIRA site...

[jrod]

Will it not be TD#1 if/when it gets upgraded. I know someone pointed that previous two storms were named before they were classified as a depresion.

[Derek Ortt]

very borderline based upon the evening QS. Will like to wait for tomorrow mornings and see if the convection persists tonight

Does remind me some of TD2 from 2001

[Aric Dunn]

very borderline based upon the evening QS. Will like to wait for tomorrow mornings and see if the convection persists tonight

Does remind me some of TD2 from 2001

agreed... its missing.. somthing..

[Chacor]

Will it not be TD#1 if/when it gets upgraded. I know someone pointed that previous two storms were named before they were classified as a depresion.

Firstly, Barry was assessed to have been a TD before TS in its report.

Secondly, no. Andrea was AL012007, Barry was AL022007, so this would be AL032007.

[philnyc]

very borderline based upon the evening QS. Will like to wait for tomorrow mornings and see if the convection persists tonight

Does remind me some of TD2 from 2001

agreed... its missing.. somthing..

gotta be the dry air. everything else looks OK. I saw depression, storms and typhoons in the WESTPAC last year that did this same thing - rode along the 50%RH line stretching east to west. They maintained but didn't lose or gain strength until something gave...

[Windspeed]

very borderline based upon the evening QS. Will like to wait for tomorrow mornings and see if the convection persists tonight

Does remind me some of TD2 from 2001

agreed... its missing.. somthing..

Hi Aric. And yes, it is missing something.... deep convection. Moderate convective bursts over or very near the LLC will keep it alive as it tracks on westward, but deep or heavy convection bursting over the LLC will help pressures to fall and allow the thing to strengthen. Stable air getting pulled in at the mid-levels on the north side of the rotation will continue to hinder it. However, I don't know if the environment is stable enough to kill it. In fact, with such a good circulation and a fairly favorable upper and mid-level pattern between it and the Windwards, this should be able to hold together. Now the concern will be if it is able to strengthen and if the environment around the eastern Caribbean will continue to look supportive for a much more formidable system or do a 180º, quickly becoming hostile as so often the eastern and central Caribbean does this time of year. We shall see....