NHC News Item

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philnyc
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Re: NHC News Item

#61 Postby philnyc » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:04 am

Toadstool wrote:
Aslkahuna wrote:Meanwhile, in State College PA, a certain Joel Myers and his cohort have to be heh-hehing and rubbing their hands and licking their chops about now.

Steve


Has AccuWeather sprung the ca$h for any satellites? :)


Boy are you onto something! Go get 'em Steve.
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Re: NHC News Item

#62 Postby philnyc » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:10 am

Toadstool wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:With Avila and knabb not being happy with the situation i think Proenza's job at the NHC maybe short lived.


I wonder what Proenza did besides bringing attention to the dire state of QuikScat to provoke this? Or maybe it's just that everyone was happy with Max Mayfield and really anyone taking his place is going to not live up to him?


People liked Max Mayfield because he kept his mouth shut. BTW, Max Mayfield doesn't believe in any connection between Global Warming and more intense hurricanes. He states this even though HE IS NOT a climatologist. If you're not a climatologist, you have no business talking about Global Warming as an "expert" in the public sector.
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Re: NHC News Item

#63 Postby philnyc » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:14 am

miamicanes177 wrote:Proenza made his bed and it's time to lay in it. I fully support the forecasters at the NHC.


If you're all for more money for "promo" and less for satellites, I guess so. Anyone who rocks the boat in this current environment is considered a traitor. It doesn't matter what their complaint is...
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Re: NHC News Item

#64 Postby Toadstool » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:17 am

philnyc wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:Proenza made his bed and it's time to lay in it. I fully support the forecasters at the NHC.


If you're all for more money for "promo" and less for satellites, I guess so. Anyone who rocks the boat in this current environment is considered a traitor. It doesn't matter what their complaint is...


Yes, their promotional budget was crazy and a bad idea... put it to better use and get another bird in the sky...
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Re: Re:

#65 Postby Toadstool » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:19 am

philnyc wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I don't agree about keeping the truth from the public lest they be panicked. Proenza spoke the truth, pure and simple. It's a sad state of affairs that punishes the NHC director for doing that.


I'm with you. Proenza spoke the truth! And he's about to find out what speaking the truth gets you under this administration...


That's very true... he's about to get Valerie Plame'd and no pardon...
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Re: NHC News Item

#66 Postby philnyc » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:39 am

windstorm99 wrote:
Brent wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:With Avila, knabb and most of the NHC forcasters not being happy with the situation i think Proenza's job at the NHC maybe will be short lived.


So has Avila called for his firing too? Because if so that makes 4... 4 out of 5. It's certainly 3 out of 5.

I don't think he'll survive the season.


Yes i spoke to formosa a few days ago and indeed he told me avila is very upset with the current situation and from the look of things he wants him out.Avila is someone you dont want to have against you.


I have loved Avila's colorful discussion statements, but one has to wonder who'll get the job if Proenza is fired? Hmmmm....
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Re: NHC News Item

#67 Postby philnyc » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:47 am

artist wrote:Frank2 - I have probably been one of the most trusting persons anyone has ever known up until the last few years. I am over 50. I have been called naive, etc. Would give my last dollar to anyone that needed it. I have had to suddenly realize how naive I have been. I have learned that power does corrupt, and that small portion of the population that have no conscience have infiltrated many positions of power. I still try to live by the golden rule, but there are those that don't and if we don't want to play by their rules then we will suffer the consequences unless we have more money or power than they have. My family and myself have been touched by this all too frequently in recent years. I will fight for wrong done to my family and friends with every breath I take. Unfortunately good and right do not always prevail here on earth. I will not ever quit believing in most all are good, but am much more wary of there are those that aren't.
To me it appears, with his history, that Proenza is willing to fight for us as though we are his family, no matter what it takes. Probably more tact could have been used, but whether it was or not, he did not get the funds. Some in high places don't care whether we are safe here - unless it were to touch their own family. They can make it painful for those that do care if it touches thei pocketbook. Seems to me this is the case.

I think we all should contact all are representatives, state and federal.


Totally agree. Things are out of control. Just ask yourself: Where is the money taken from Quikscat going? I don't need to see any more NOAA insignias, anywhere. I need to feel that our NHC hurricane forecasting is trustworthy and state of the art. We pay for it with our taxes. And I don't think we want to pay for it the way we do for cable. Otherwise you'll be paying $150 a month pretty soon to AccuWeather just to find out enough to be able to participate on these boards.
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Re: Re:

#68 Postby philnyc » Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:49 am

Toadstool wrote:
philnyc wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I don't agree about keeping the truth from the public lest they be panicked. Proenza spoke the truth, pure and simple. It's a sad state of affairs that punishes the NHC director for doing that.


I'm with you. Proenza spoke the truth! And he's about to find out what speaking the truth gets you under this administration...


That's very true... he's about to get Valerie Plame'd and no pardon...


Scary...
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Re: NHC News Item

#69 Postby Aslkahuna » Wed Jul 04, 2007 3:33 am

Once again this proves that there is a right way, wrong way and the Government way of doing things-also fairness and justice is not to be found in intra-agency politics and squabbles. The hurricane specialists are coming down on the side of the higher ups against their own Boss for one reason only-to protect their own behinds (and jobs) and ensure that they will not be retired early (now you know why Max wanted out). They may be fine forecasters and maybe nice people to talk to but their loyalty to their Directors seems lacking.
Should be noted however that the satellite in question was a research satellite and not really intended to be an operational one but rather a testbed to test out the concept and help in the design of a truly operational system. As for the funding issues, well all Budget matters are highly political and thus can not be discussed here.

Steve
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Re: NHC News Item

#70 Postby Toadstool » Wed Jul 04, 2007 4:52 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
IN EXTENT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


I think Brown still is on board with Proenza, so I say "heckuva job, Brownie!"
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Re: NHC News Item

#71 Postby benny » Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:18 am


I have loved Avila's colorful discussion statements, but one has to wonder who'll get the job if Proenza is fired? Hmmmm....


The most reasonable guess is the deputy director Rappaport, no?
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Re: NHC News Item

#72 Postby Toadstool » Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:20 am

benny wrote:

I have loved Avila's colorful discussion statements, but one has to wonder who'll get the job if Proenza is fired? Hmmmm....


The most reasonable guess is the deputy director Rappaport, no?


Does Rappaport have a good rapport with the forecasters? ;)
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Re: NHC News Item

#73 Postby Derecho » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:54 am

Toadstool wrote:I think Brown still is on board with Proenza, so I say "heckuva job, Brownie!"


People who don't personally know any of the people involved have wanted to turn this into a simple morality play of the noble and good Proenza agains the evil higher up NOAA faceless bureaucrats, and with every article that comes out it becomes obvious (as I suspected) that things were far more complicated.

The ONE fact that was clear is Proenza was seriously exaggerating the importance of QUIKSCAT to tropical forecasting, particularly that for dangerous storms threatening the US. That made it hard to take his side. There's something called "bad soldiers in the service of a good king." - Bad arguments in favor of something good (I want a nice new upgraded QUIKSCAT as much as the next guy) actually just hurt your position.

And now that long-time and well-known NHC forecasters have made it clear they don't like Proenza and want him gone, I think it's time the emotional Proenza-as-hero position is abandoned, especially by those who formed that based on a couple of news articles in the first place, without knowing the actual situation inside NHC.
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Re: NHC News Item

#74 Postby wjs3 » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:10 am

Toadstool wrote:
benny wrote:

I have loved Avila's colorful discussion statements, but one has to wonder who'll get the job if Proenza is fired? Hmmmm....


The most reasonable guess is the deputy director Rappaport, no?


Does Rappaport have a good rapport with the forecasters? ;)


ughhh....

Word at the NHC was that none of the forecasters wanted the director job last year when it was open. Did Rappaport even apply?

WJS3
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Re: NHC News Item

#75 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:11 am

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but it was wrong for him to discuss issues in the paper.

You stay professional and private. If something leaks so be it, but you don't go public with accusations like he did. That shows more of an ego than anything else and I totally understand why he's lost the confidence of some of the forecasters.

Even if he did go public he could have done it in a calm concerned manner, not in the provocative way he did it. He has no business heading anything IMO.
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Re: NHC News Item

#76 Postby Berwick Bay » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:22 am

C'mon. So he tried to shake things up a little (and for a good cause). Thats no sin. This is way too much about perceived infallibility at the NHC. Now they won't even give him a chance to complete one year as director to show what he can do during the hurricane season itself. They're afraid of him now. He's too much of a straight shooter. A lot of controversial situations come up during the course of a season (shifting cones-adequate wording of warnings to given areas--some more vulnerable than others) and now they're afraid that he might not sweep things under the rug, the way the previous bureaucrats did. Its obvious from this random inspection that they'll do anything to get rid of him now. Watch out, he may be charged with chasing skirts around the office!! They'll do anything now to get rid of him.
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Re: NHC News Item

#77 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:35 am

http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/159712.html

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Four NHC forecasters want Proenza to go,Lixon Avila,Richard Pasch,James Franklin and Richard Knabb.This is sad to see this going on in that office while the peak of the season draws closer.

Frank,I edited the title to include this news of the four forecasters.
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Re: NHC News Item=Three NHC forecasters want Proenza to go

#78 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:44 am

I believe Knabb was a candidate for the director position. He was the Science and Operations Officer (position now held by Chris Landsea) prior to 2005
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#79 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:52 am

If you lost confidence from some in the inner core of NHC,your are then toasted.
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Re: NHC News Item

#80 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:57 am

Toadstool wrote:
benny wrote:

I have loved Avila's colorful discussion statements, but one has to wonder who'll get the job if Proenza is fired? Hmmmm....


The most reasonable guess is the deputy director Rappaport, no?


Does Rappaport have a good rapport with the forecasters? ;)


wjs3 wrote:[ughhh....

Word at the NHC was that none of the forecasters wanted the director job last year when it was open. Did Rappaport even apply?

WJS3


I think that there is a thread addressing this that was produced when Mayfield's retirement was announced. I thought Rappaport was one of the candidates mentioned. In fact, it seemed to me that Proenza "came out of nowhere" when it appeared that no one else really wanted the job.
Unfortunately, whether we like Proenza's style or not he is now "damaged goods" and in order for the NHC to remain viable(meaning run on a good even keel with all of the focus on the season)he needs to go. When 3 of your top 5 Senior Forecasters say he needs to go(really 4, Avila is "playing it safe" with his comments) it is time for a change. Apparently they do not like his internal management style either(coming in and instituting many changes almost immediately)and this can not be good for the office, especially during season, much less at any other time. It is unfortunate, that apparently he will not be given a season to "prove his mettle", but some would argue he has done so and that we are seeing the results of that now(whatever happens in the end).
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