Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Toadstool]

Which plug-in to Google Earth is that, and do you have a link to it?

[philnyc]

My question is why certain posters here are looking at the 5 day forecasted shear by global models in the eastern Caribbean, when we know that they do not do the best job in forecasting shear levels that far out, they either over estimate or under estimate shear levels past 3 days out.

I agree with you, NDG. I'm not looking at shear (or anything else) past 2 or 3 days, which all models show to be low. Why look past there anyway? There's so much uncertainty currently, and for the next two days.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Okay, I got a question. I know that the Ships Model is an intensity forecast, not to be confused with those models which forecast direction. And I've just posted my opinion about the future course of this system, assuming it remains a Wave-Depression or perhaps a minimal tropical storm over the next 2-3 days (think it would mean a more southerly track). Perhaps I'm wrong, but here's the question. IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THESE MODELS WHICH TAKE THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE ACTUALLY PICKING UP ON A STRONGER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME THAN WE ARE PRESENTLY ANTICIPATING? I guess the quick answer would be no, eh? Sorry, but I had to ask.

Do you have Google Earth? If you do, open this file in it:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz

I plan on adding Google Maps functionality back to my site tonight so that you would not need that cool program. You can click on an hourly plot and check the intensity that the model predicts. It is available for very few models though.

Right now SHIPS makes this just about at the threshold of a tropical storm. The HWRF only takes it as high as 33 knots.

Which plug-in to Google Earth is that, and do you have a link to it?

I generate the plots from my site:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/

For 96L see this page for another plot, a purely spaghetti plot:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/96.shtml
That I produce for television media.

[Cyclenall]

Cyclenall, I admire your effort, but I think your percentages are a tad bit too conservative. For instance 55% depression, hell it may be a depression right now. 45% tropical storm, I'd probably up that to about 55%. But I do agree with you about anything beyond that. But thats what I like. Going out on a limb. And maybe I'm a bit too "bullish" on this thing.

Yes, that was conservative but the funny thing is usually I'm bullish . Heck, last year in mid-June there was a tropical wave in the central Atlantic and I said "this has Emily written all over it"! You can't get much more liberal then that (and foolish). I think it also could be a TD but the shift of opinion was rapid today. Remember today 11 years ago and 2 years ago what happened...

[Berwick Bay]

Matt said earlier that this system is in fact already a depression. And after looking at the last visible loop, I'm tending to agree with him. True, the storms are not wrapped neatly all the way around the center. But as Matt said, it appears to have the requisite wind speed, and I'm seeing what looks like a pretty good outflow pattern emerging to the north.
Here's the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Toadstool]

Do you have Google Earth? If you do, open this file in it:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz

I like that kmz file... looks great in G.E. for plots!

For after a storm forms, I've been using Live Hurricane Positions... http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=110283

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.guiweather.com/kml.html
http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives ... g_ani.html
http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives ... obser.html
http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff_new/

no the bottom of a couple of the links is hundreds of kmz files many of which are tropical.. look around i am loaded with .. crap. the ship and buoy kmz are cool

[Aric Dunn]

convection covering the center .. again. but this time its still getting bigger oooh awwww

weee ... lol im tires later.. be back in the morning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Berwick Bay]

Cyclenall, you posted your best guess percentages for development. I'm going to go out on a limb here, a little bit, and predict that the upgrade to Depression will occur either at the next advisory 5AM, or no later that the 11Am advisory tomorrow.

[philnyc]

http://www.guiweather.com/kml.html
http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives ... g_ani.html
http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives ... obser.html
http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff_new/

no the bottom of a couple of the links is hundreds of kmz files many of which are tropical.. look around i am loaded with .. crap. the ship and buoy kmz are cool

My last post of the night: Aric, you have been on target all the way today. My gut feeling is that this one is going to make it in the short term. Meaning it will get to at least tropical storm by tomorrow. It just looks too good. Past tomorrow, there are serious dry air concerns, but no shear, on Thursday. If it makes it past that, and moves north of the Caribbean (graveyard in July) it could be a problem. But in toto, I think it will hit the northern or central islands as a trop storm or cat 1 and then (I've got to edit this) who knows. If I've learned anything about these storms, more than 2 days out is ridiculous to forecast for.

[Toadstool]

http://www.guiweather.com/kml.html
http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives ... g_ani.html
http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives ... obser.html
http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff_new/

no the bottom of a couple of the links is hundreds of kmz files many of which are tropical.. look around i am loaded with .. crap. the ship and buoy kmz are cool

Thanks Aric! You're right, the ship and buoy combined kmz is excellent!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

http://www.guiweather.com/kml.html

That buoy and ship one is especially neat. I had never seen that one.

For after a storm forms, I've been using Live Hurricane Positions... http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=110283

Not sure if I have ever seen that one or not.

I've been alpha testing an NHC storm plot on my site since last year. It will still be several months before it is available. It looks something like this, which was for Helene last year...



I will plot error circles and wind swaths. I wanted to do the error cone, but last year after a month I finally took a break from (quit) trying to do that part of it. It also has a lot of upgrades to the model system, such as adding UKMET model data. Also past storm track. But I spent 6 months building another site and only now am getting back to it.

[jrod]

Aric, bro you will be a cat 5 on here before Chantal gets named if you keep it up.

This reminds me a lot of Bertha 96', because of the time of the year and location. How this invest evolves will be over the next day or so I will be tuned in.

[Cyclenall]

Cyclenall, you posted your best guess percentages for development. I'm going to go out on a limb here, a little bit, and predict that the upgrade to Depression will occur either at the next advisory 5AM, or no later that the 11Am advisory tomorrow.

Sounds good to me. My original thinking was it wasn't going to do anything until it got into the Caribbean but things change.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Big blow up of convection over the southern quad of the well defined LLC. Nice little system, maybe even better then Barry.


We will see what happens but there is a lot of dry air to the north,.

[knotimpaired]

The Weather Channel for their 5 a.m. barely mentions this.

They say it bears watching and then they moved on to another area.

Oh well, who needs them anyway when we have everyone here

[harmclan]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040912
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
IN EXTENT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[gotoman38]

Looking good on visible this morning

[Normandy]

Meh, that looks awful.
Its a mess of stable air clashing with drier air...can't do too much with that stable environment to its north. Half its circulation is stratocumuli