NHC News Item

[x-y-no]

Well, I'll agree that if it's a choice between QuikSCAT and Recon then Recon is far and away the more important. But why is it an either/or? Has Proenza argued that money should be taken from Recon to fund a QS replacement? I don't think so. If some ignorant congeresscritters have suggested something like that, they need to be straightened out - and I suspect Proenza would agree.


And Scott_inVA:

I too would like some more info on who within TPC/NHC is arguing for restriction of access to model data. I'm vehemently opposed to that.

EDIT: Never mind, I see you replied as I was typing.

[deltadog03]

I am glad he stood up!!!!! I wish that the other sissy's would stand behind him and help his thoughts!!! BUT! that is a government job. Can't speak out or you will be lol....The same goes for bashing the GFS. God forbid you do that!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I disagree. Any man who publicly will stand up to all the waste the government spends is a vote for me. To spend all that money for a Noaa anniversary while there is not enough of a budget is ludicrous.

[x-y-no]

Rob,

The opposite is what I have been told.

While NHC was furious/embarrassed over the hammering they took from Charley '04, they haven't appeared desirous of restricting NOAA's public release of modeling data. Recall several OCMs in 2004 were on-air telling Floridians totally different information than NHC...these OCMs relied on models and didn't wait when it became apparent Charley was bombing out and turning.

I've tried to get information about modeling data this year but my sense is there are many staff (as opposed to forecasters) within TPC who are in Proenza's camp. I'm connecting the dots but do want to be fair and state I have no evidence anyone at TPC is "hiding" models... however I've seen and heard enough to cause concern.

Scott

Now that's a different kettle of fish. If this is going on and Proenza is behind it, my opinion would be far more negative.

[Regit]

Jeff Masters trashes the NHC director in his blog today. I think Masters is way out of line with the comments he has made. This is just a sample quote of horrible words directed towards this man:

I haven't read Jeff's blog but he seems to say the same as do I. Jeff does not appear to be trashing anyone although he is stating that which is evident from forecasters at TPC/NHC.

I did forecasting in commercial broadcasting for many years and what Jeff (and Dr. Avila) has said is accurate: QS is infinitesimally unimportant for accurate TC forecasting close to TPC's area of responsibility. I'm in my 11th year of producing hurricane models and can't think of a time I used QS for anything more than curiosity when a TC is approaching land...not once. It simply is a capricious argument on Proenza's part.

As several forecasters have publicly said, recon is critical...QS is not. Does anyone recall the post-Katrina fallout because a flight was canceled as the storm approached Florida...and then stunned many people by jogging SW over land? I do. 2005 was a crippling money year and were it to happen again I damn sure don't want that budget going into a satellite that does nothing to protect people as a TC makes landfall.

Proenza sits in the most important "weather chair" in the US. Part of his job is to build public confidence for his agency as well as be the confident and calming voice of the Hurricane Center. It is clear he can do neither and therefore should be removed before an already skeptical public loses more confidence in the NHC.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

Well, I believe that Mr. Proenza would argue to you that there is plenty of money for new equipment and more recon.

As for an already skeptical public, I don't think he'll have any effect at all. This story is not going mainstream. There is a certain portion of the population who hate the government and all its agencies. Then there is the portion of the population who believes that meteorology is a sham science. Then you have people who haven't thought very deeply into it, but don't believe weather forecasts generally. A great NHC director isn't going to convince any of them.

On the other hand, you have the general public. They don't care who runs the NHC as long as the person isn't a crook or child molester. These people account for probably 85-90% of the population.

The only people who care are meteorologists and people who read internet weather blogs and message boards. They account for maybe up to 2% of the US population.

I'm not going to judge it now. It's only he-said/they-said.

[Frank2]

First, let me say that the below is not critical of anyone who posts here, but, are just my feelings today, after hearing of the current problems at the NHC...

It's hard for me to read all of the criticism directed against my past employer and several of my past co-workers without feeling a sense of sadness - truly, it's an odd feeling to read public comments on people that I once worked with and still consider friends, and, though I know it's not the case on this board, in my heart I feel it's a personal attack on my life's memories, since my days with NOAA are also tied into my last years with my parents, so, an attack on this past employer, to me, is an attack on my memories - sad but true, and, that does not mean that a person should not voice their opinion here or anywhere else, since what I post here are just my personal feelings on the entire issue....

This makes me even more sympathetic of those who choose to live in the public spotlight, and often have their entire life discussed in public by everyone and anyone - it must be a terrible feeling to know that there are few, if any, memories in a person's life that are only for them to know...

This morning I was even more discouraged after hearing that three NHC forecasters had called for their Director's removal, and, that motivated me to begin thinking about what I can do, if anything, to help the situation (though my dear deceased sister would tell me to pray for all involved, which is likely the best thing anyone can do for them), but, the reality of the situation is that I never knew the current Director - truly, I can say that I really do not even have a memory of hearing his name mentioned, during my years with his agency (a feat unto itself, as a few who know me would say, considering my knack for remembering what I had for breakfast many years ago), however, I do know several of those who are now calling for his dismissal...

With that in mind, I know some at the NHC/HRD who do visit this site (and perhaps even post here under assumed names), so, I won't comment further on what should or should not happen, except to say, again, that it's an odd and uncomfortable feeling to have a part of my life's memories disrupted by the current situation, and, per my sister's eternal advice, I'll keep all involved in prayer - when I worked there, I always felt that God was smiling on us (perhaps more at times that others), and, almost always felt that it was a fine place to work at, at that time in my life, but, now feel sorrow that this joy, in a sense, seems to have left my memories and their workplace, at least for the present moment.

Peace to all...

[Regit]

I edited to title to change Four to Three.

[cycloneye]

http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/159712.html



Four NHC forecasters want Proenza to go,Lixon Avila,Richard Pasch,James Franklin and Richard Knabb.This is sad to see this going on in that office while the peak of the season draws closer.

Frank,I edited the title to include this news of the four forecasters.

The title should be changed back to "Three NHC forecasters" since the article you link to clearly says that Lixion is still on the sidelines:

Forecaster Lixion Avila, who ignited the public phase of the rebellion Monday night in comments to The Miami Herald that were critical of Proenza, said Tuesday that he was not ready to join the call for Proenza's departure.

''I've lost a little bit of faith in him,'' Avila said, ``but I don't want to be part of his removal or support him to stay.''

Fellow moderator Regit edited the title.But for sure Avila can flip to the other three ones side if things get worse.

[artist]

seems to me he has quite a huuricane background - none of this makes sense with his accomplishments.

Bill Proenza is the Director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, part of the National Weather Service (NWS).

A meteorology graduate of The Florida State University, Proenza began his career in tropical meteorology in the mid 1960s at NHC and as a flight meteorologist on the "hurricane hunter" aircraft. He continued his career within the National Weather Service for more than 35 years receiving numerous performance commendations and awards, including recognition from the NWS Employees' Organization as the NWS Manager of the Year for his collaborative leadership.

Proenza has held a diverse array of field and leadership positions and his meteorological experience ranges from leadership in the modernization of weather services as well as managing weather forecasting and severe weather warning services to providing climate services. He rose through the ranks of the NWS and held the position of Director of the most severe weather active area of our Nation, the Southern Region, encompassing ¼ of the Nation from New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma eastward all the way to Florida and on across the Caribbean to include Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from 1998 through 2006. Through his experience in the southern, northern and eastern portions of the nation, Bill has gained a unique familiarity with many types of weather from tropical to intense winter weather and severe local storms.

Proenza is a long standing member of the American Meteorological Society, the National Weather Association, the International Association of Emergency Managers and the National Emergency Management Association. In 2001, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) recognized him with its prestigious "Francis W. Reichelderfer Award" for outstanding environmental services to the nation and in 2003, he was conferred the prestigious status of "Fellow of the AMS". Just recently in 2006, he was elected to the leadership of the American Meteorological Society as a Counselor.

Proenza is an internationally recognized meteorologist and has represented the U.S. Government across the Caribbean Basin. In 2006 and 2007, he headed the United States Delegations to United Nations (UNESCO) meetings on tsunamis and the oceans. Proenza is also the chairman of the United Nation.s World Meteorological Organization.s Hurricane Committee, which supports 26 member nations in the Americas.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/director_bio.shtml

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Fellow moderator Regit edited the title.But for sure Avila can flip to the other three ones side if things get worse.

He's already made critical comments against Proenza, so all he has to do is commit to them and take a stand.... unless he's staying neutral to be a good candidate for directorship?

[HurricaneRobert]

They should put Brownie in charge. He'll do a heck of a job.

[cycloneye]

Fellow moderator Regit edited the title.But for sure Avila can flip to the other three ones side if things get worse.

He's already made critical comments against Proenza, so all he has to do is commit to them and take a stand.... unless he's staying neutral to be a good candidate for directorship?

Umm that's an interesting angle about this.

[Scott_inVA]

I guess my concerns began with the Director's public comments regarding QS last March. My beef was that the media and a generally uninformed public heard "the new guy" say hurricane forecasting is in peril due to Washington. As a result, his forecasters are hampered and will need wider warning cones, thus disrupting more of the public.

This is not my job however I know these comments were not accurate and in fact are dangerous. Floridians remember 2004 and most everyone else recalls Katrina. I'm here to tell you the incredible numbers of Americans who believe NHC mishandled both...despite generally giving great service to those in harm's way. So, despite this, the six most important employees under his employ (I include WCM Stacy Stewart) are placed in a public position where their skill and credibility are not affirmed by their director. Even without knowledge of closed door issues, I'd be furious.

My opinion, based on recent conversations, is there are unhappy people within TPC/NHC because Washington may actually consider moving budget away from research and recon.

I can not recall a time any Senior Specialist said anything in public about personnel matters (even after a near battle-royal over Ivan/Ivan 2); the fact they are now doing so is something I consider grave. Let's hope this is resolved...and soon.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[vbhoutex]

A new man is often given latitude to come in and put his stamp on the way he wants an organization to run. But not here. This is a fearful and cowardly group. And for these forecasters to turn on Proenza this quickly, well, I've lost all respect for them too. They can join the "brown nose" hall of shame. The whole nature of this organization is to never show weakness or admit errors, and along with an entrenched bureauocracy, it has now shown itself to be less interested in doing the right thing and more in its own self serving interests. How can anyone sit here and think that Proenza's statements are worthy of dismissal? No one thought that to be the case at the time they were made. Recent events are more instructive of the mind set of the "boys at the top" than of anything that Proenza supposedly did wrong. They'll fabricate any charge now to get rid of him, and they'll pressure the forecasters to go along in order to add legitimacy to their position. This is nothing new. It stinks to high heaven.

You do not know any more than the rest of the public knows concerning the entire situation and how it has evolved and for you to level such harsh criticism, bordering on total bashing of professionals, which we do not allow at S2K, is WRONG in my book, both personally and as an admin here. IE, back it off on the criticism until you have all the facts and STOP the name calling. I am defending no one in particular but your comments are over the line pure and simple.

[Aquawind]

Miami Herald audio interview with Mr Proenza is at http://podweather.com/

[Janie2006]

It's becoming increasingly clear that the situation is far more complex than first imagined...as most things generally are. This is a good example of how the media can take a story and turn it to their own ends. We started out with a story which implied that a major wx satellite was about to fail and nobody seemed very interested in doing much of anything about it. We discover that most likely the NHC's forecasting ability wouldn't be impacted at all, it's a completely different satellite. It's a good lesson about reservation of judgement before we have all the facts.

In the meantime, the NHC's dirty laundry is being put out for public consumption near the height of the season. As Regit says, perhaps only 2% of the general public has any clue about these things. OTOH, the meterological community certainly knows, as do most wx enthusiasts. The result? A possible loss of credibility on the part of NHC/TPC. This isn't good for any of the parties concerned.

Given these new developments in the story, I'm now assuming a neutral position on this situation until I can determine exactly what's transpiring here.

[Toadstool]

Miami Herald audio interview with Mr Proenza is at http://podweather.com/

Interesting interview... he doesn't seem to be taking the criticism against him seriously (no matter how much the interviewer tries), which I don't think is a good thing. Then again, I'm not sure what else he can do except say "we're just going to keep doing a great job."

[philnyc]

Ok, x-y-no, I'll pare it down:

This is NOT just about Quikscat. It's about Proenza embarassing NOAA on their $4 million dollar anniversary promo and changing the name of the hurricane center, which has many implications.
That "visit" on Friday by a team including a LAWYER was interesting:
Proenza was told to stop talking, and he has, while his employees were told it's OK to criticize him in public to the Miami Herald and the rest of the media, and they have...

[x-y-no]

Folks, let's try to stick to facts and avoid too much speculation about motives etc. This is an interesting and important topic, it'd be a shame for the thread to spiral out of control.

(Directed as much at myself as anyone - I'm known to have my strong opinions too )

[Scott_inVA]

Meanwhile...over at SPC...forecasters are quietly going about the business of issuing products including several TORs over here. No muss, no fuss. Just doing their job.

Speaks volumes about leadership.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA