Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[drezee]

My two cents:

This system has done the best job i would expect given the condidtions. I try not to look at 4-8 hour trends. If you look at the overall system, structure, convection, etc, then it has improved each 24 hour period. That said, look at any pic of it 24 hours prior to the one you are currelty looking at and it looks better now. It is not in an environment to improve rapidly. I will say this; if it makes the same amount of improvement as it has for the last 3 days, it will be a TD tomorrow. if it does not improve, then it has gone over a slippery slope to nowhere.

Based on the trends of the last three days, it should begine to fire convection within the next hour or two and peak around 2-4 amEST.

[Normandy]

All one has to do is look at a WV loop to see this system is dead. Might as well look elsewhere.

[wxman57]

My two cents:

This system has done the best job i would expect given the conditions. I try not to look at 4-8 hour trends. If you look at the overall system, structure, convection, etc, then it has improved each 24 hour period. That said, look at any pic of it 24 hours prior to the one you are currenlty looking at and it looks better now. It is not in an environment to improve rapidly. I will say this; if it makes the same amount of improvement as it has for the last 3 days, it will be a TD tomorrow. if it does not improve, then it has gone over a slippery slope to nowhere.

Based on the trends of the last three days, it should begi to fire convection within the next hour or two and peak around 2-4 am EST.

I had to check the date on your post to make sure it was from today. The trend over the past 24 hours has definitely a weakening, not strengthening. Convection is almost completely gone now, as opposed to quite vigorous south of the center 24 hours ago. Chances it'll make a comeback are very low now. Good chance it'll lose its invest status by tomorrow afternoon if the current trend continues.

[drezee]

My two cents:

This system has done the best job i would expect given the conditions. I try not to look at 4-8 hour trends. If you look at the overall system, structure, convection, etc, then it has improved each 24 hour period. That said, look at any pic of it 24 hours prior to the one you are currenlty looking at and it looks better now. It is not in an environment to improve rapidly. I will say this; if it makes the same amount of improvement as it has for the last 3 days, it will be a TD tomorrow. if it does not improve, then it has gone over a slippery slope to nowhere.

Based on the trends of the last three days, it should begin to fire convection within the next hour or two and peak around 2-4 am EST.

I had to check the date on your post to make sure it was from today. The trend over the past 24 hours has definitely a weakening, not strengthening. Convection is almost completely gone now, as opposed to quite vigorous south of the center 24 hours ago. Chances it'll make a comeback are very low now. Good chance it'll lose its invest status by tomorrow afternoon if the current trend continues.

And thus our opinions differ...mine lies with the fact that the lack of convection is outweighed by the much improved structure. The fact is that it has not been weakening for 24 hours, it looked the best at 2-4am this morning (15 hours ago). Starting at this time yesterday, it got better organized for about 8-10 hours.

[drezee]

The only reason i feel it hasn't happened tonight is due to the fact is that it is further west and the dirunal effects are delayed by an hour or so.

[wxman57]

And thus our opinions differ...mine lies with the fact that the lack of convection is outweighed by the much improved structure. The fact is that it has not been weakening for 24 hours, it looked the best at 2-4am this morning (15 hours ago). Starting at this time yesterday, it got better organized for about 8-10 hours.

Perhaps the structure is more evident this evening because there is no convection to obscure it?

[Cyclone1]

The only reason i feel it hasn't happened tonight is due to the fact is that it is further west and the dirunal effects are delayed by an hour or so.

Very interesting point.

[philnyc]

And thus our opinions differ...mine lies with the fact that the lack of convection is outweighed by the much improved structure. The fact is that it has not been weakening for 24 hours, it looked the best at 2-4am this morning (15 hours ago). Starting at this time yesterday, it got better organized for about 8-10 hours.

Perhaps the structure is more evident this evening because there is no convection to obscure it?

LOL!

(Don't misunderstand me, drezee. I like your points, too. I just thought that comment was funny.)

[Cyclone1]

Looks like the worlds tiniest flare up of convection near the center. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir4.html It's like really tiny, really. It's adorable.

[HUC]

To be or not to be,that is the question...we all are considering these sytems like human's being.That's wonderful!!

[Aric Dunn]

HI LOOKS LIKE FUN CAN I PLAY
?

[cpdaman]

i think tonite may say alot

[Cyclone1]

i think tonite may say alot

In a formation way or a dissipation way?

[HurricaneRobert]

No way will this be anything anytime soon.

[Aric Dunn]

i would say either..
because if we dont get convection the circulation will slowly wined down.. it needs at least periodic burst of convection to keep it going..

[miamicanes177]

And thus our opinions differ...mine lies with the fact that the lack of convection is outweighed by the much improved structure. The fact is that it has not been weakening for 24 hours, it looked the best at 2-4am this morning (15 hours ago). Starting at this time yesterday, it got better organized for about 8-10 hours.

I agree. Things change quickly and we'll just have to wait. Nobody knows what the future holds.

[Cyclenall]

And thus our opinions differ...mine lies with the fact that the lack of convection is outweighed by the much improved structure. The fact is that it has not been weakening for 24 hours, it looked the best at 2-4am this morning (15 hours ago). Starting at this time yesterday, it got better organized for about 8-10 hours.

Perhaps the structure is more evident this evening because there is no convection to obscure it?

That is very true and is something we shouldn't forget when viewing these systems.

I'm not pleased with the Invest so far today. I said from the beginning it's not going to be classified by the NHC until it's at least in the Caribbean (some think the conditions won't be good there either). I gave it a 55% chance of becoming a TD at all (should have been "55% chance of the NHC declaring it as a TD" instead) but it looks like it wasn't too conservative after all.

[wxman22]

A little off topic but what about the system over Texas and the western Gulf looks like thunderstorms are staying pretty presisitent and theres just been a new exsplosion of thunderstorms I think this bears watching....What do yall think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

not so much

however everything this time of year has some chance , right

[cycloneye]

A little off topic but what about the system over Texas and the western Gulf looks like thunderstorms are staying pretty presisitent and theres just been a new exsplosion of thunderstorms I think this bears watching....What do yall think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Yers,it's off-topic as it's in another area well away by thousands of miles from 96L.You can post any comments about the Western Gulf area in this thread. :



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