SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Hot! Hot! Hot!

[JenBayles]

Same **** different night, huh? Last night after the sun went down, the radar started lighting up. Looks like the same radar loop I looked at before going to bed yesterday. It still seems bizarre to me to see day after day of new storms firing up AFTER sundown.

[wxman22]

Again things are looking more and more intresting in the Gulf....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[KatDaddy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 050230
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

...DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.UPDATE...
WILL RAISE POPS AONG THE COAST AS MOISTURE AXIS LIES ALONG THE
COAST AND THERE IS SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE SERVING AS AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR RAIN. MOISTURE FETCH EXTENDS FROM BAY CITY TO
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRAINING RAIN IS
EXPECTED. WILL FRESHEN THE FLOOD WATCH AND PROBABLY INCREASE RAIN
AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. 43

&&

.DISCUSSION...

[KatDaddy]

Very few times we see the NWS posting the following header:

...DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

[jasons2k]

Tonight's radar loop is the scariest one I've seen yet with this whole extended event.

Fireworks still going off around here.

BTW - anyone catch the Houston show on TV? I thought it was pretty embarassing - Eddie Montgomery was obviously PLOWED beyond belief...

[KatDaddy]

A speck shower just passed by dropping an amazing .02" Now up to a whopping .50"

Matagorda County ready for another pounding soon.

Jschlitz out time will come. We are all very saturated.

[Ptarmigan]

That storm cloud is impressive. I expect it will be here after 1:00 AM. I expect in the neighbor of 2 to 5 inches of rain and possibly up to 8 to 10 inches in some areas.

[Ptarmigan]

Very few times we see the NWS posting the following header:

...DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

Never seen that before. They really do mean it.

[Normandy]

Wow. This could be bad.

[southerngale]

The sound of thunder and heavy rain woke me up a little while ago. Man, that radar is lit up this morning! A large line of really intense rain has just moved through here. We have a flood advisory, and it's been raining since it was issued, with more coming. Welcome to a repeat of summer 2006.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=lch&loop=yes


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
606 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

TXC199-245-361-051400-
606 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SARATOGA...LUMBERTON...KOUNTZE...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VIDOR...ORANGE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 600 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING
FROM THICKET TO SOUR LAKE TO WINNIE TO 15 MILE SOUTHWEST OF SEA RIM
STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH GROUNDS SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF AND RESULT IN
POSSIBLE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3048 9471 3013 9460 3012 9444 2991 9443
2991 9436 2959 9434 2970 9403 2969 9386
2973 9388 2980 9396 2984 9395 2994 9388
3000 9386 3002 9379 3007 9373 3015 9371
3023 9372 3023 9411 3029 9412 3035 9410
3043 9412 3051 9408 3052 9453 3048 9452

$$

SHAMBURGER

[crazycajuncane]

How are my friends in Houston doing this morning? Looks like you guys got a drenching overnight and into the morning. SE Texas looking roughed up this morning. We got a line of pretty hefty storms building from the gulf heading north towards here, but the rain remains steady in SE Texas.

will this pattern ever break?

[jasons2k]

Well, some decent rain overnight but not as bad as I had feared. It looked like some serious training was setting-up but the leading edge pushed off to the east, sparing us a massive flood.

[crazycajuncane]

Yeah I just watched some radar loops and noticed that. It looks like Sulphur and points a little north are getting pounded by some heavy rains right now.

Unpredictable pattern to say the least.

[jasons2k]

More bad news from Jeff - he was obviously in a hurry so edits are in brackets:

More heavy rains fall overnight and area river[s] respond.

SW counties pick up another 2-4 inches of rainfall overnight with widespread 2.0+ inches over metro Houston.

Rivers above Flood Stage:

Brazos, San Bernard, Navasota, Tres Palacios, Trinity, Lavaca, and Navidad.

Major flooding is now in progress on the Tres Palacios River at Midfield after overnight heavy rains.

Recession expected on the Brazos River at Richmond and Rosharon has yet to begin since heavy rains have fallen on the watershed in the last 3 days. The river is at a flat crest at Richmond and Rosharon with flooding of the low land flood plain in progress. Backwater flooding is in progress across large parts of Fort Bend and Brazoria counties with water levels up to the bases of flood protection levees around Sugar Land and New Territory. The river should begin to come down starting early Friday if no additional rain falls. Levels are within 3.0 feet of flooding homes in the Missouri City area.

Discussion:

Rains refuse to go away as pesky upper low remains parked over TX. Expectation of low moving into Mexico is all but gone this morning as forecast models have done a 180 and draw the low back into its N TX summer home. Could not be a worst [worse] forecast for river flooding as heavy rains will move back northward into areas already flooding and saturated. Upper ridge is just not gaining much ground over the area as I was suspecting the last two days. Should see scattered shower[s] continue through the early afternoon and then taper to cloudy skies thereafter as air mass begin[s] to recover form [from]overnight MCS. Once again should see coastal develop[ment] late tonight spread[ing] inland during the early morning hours…yes just like the last 4 days. Hard to say if the heavy rains stay along the coast and offshore like Tuesday and Wednesday or spread inland like this morning.

Point is we a[re] saturated and additional rains will run-off causing rises on already flooding watersheds. Additional widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated amounts of 5-8 inches can be expected through noon Friday. Rainfall of this magnitude will not bode well for area rivers.

With the upper low moving back into NE TX this weekend SE TX will stay on the moist east side of the trough axis. Threat for rains will continue through the weekend although the hope is that they become more scattered with time.

Looking into the extended upper low should get caught and pulled E of TX early next week suggesting lower rain chances…but wait NW flow aloft looks to take control allowing KS MCS formation to reach into TX each night. We shall see.

Note: Corpus Christi has recorded its wetter [wettest] July on record and it is only July 5th. The city has had over 12.14 inches of rainfall since the 1st.

[Yankeegirl]

It looks to me like the air here might be too stable for anything to make its way in... I was watching that rain moving in from Victoria, but it seems to be falling apart as it gets closer to Houston at this time... Which is good, my yard need to be cut before the wedding here on Saturday!!!

[southerngale]

When I went to bed last night, I saw that area down near Victoria slowly growing as it made its way up the coast. Then it just exploded before it got here....wow.

I can't say I'm surprised to see the Flood Warning for Pine Island Bayou. And after reading Jeff's discussion above... oh boy. They're expecting it to keep rising until Sunday afternoon as it is now. Any additional rainfall will raise it higher and extend that.

This "pesky" low ought to have its own name.

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...

PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE


TXC199-245-060629-
/X.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0001.070705T1628Z-000000T0000Z/
/SOLT2.1.ER.070705T1545Z.070708T0600Z.070705T1607Z.NO/
1129 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE .
* AT 11:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 27.2 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT STAGES NEAR 25.0 FEET, WATER INUNDATES ROADS IN LOWLAND AREAS
NEAR THE RIVER. LOW SPOTS ON OLD SOUR LAKE ROAD ARE UNDER WATER.

[Yankeegirl]

We havent had too much rain today... Not too bad....

[Yankeegirl]

Edit.... Its pouring cats and dogs....

[jasons2k]

Strange that it's moving SE and I see hardly anything on radar there...anyway......

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO ON
THE GROUND NEAR I-45 AND TEICHMAN ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...

[jasons2k]

There was also a report of a waterspout near Galveston earlier this PM