Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Chacor]

Latest QS pass at 9:14 UTC this morning seems to show that it has opened up to wave or surface trof:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

Can't find a closed circulation on the 10:32 pass...

[cycloneye]

So I guess my question here is are we back on for a potential storm?

Everyone seems wishy-washy.

No storm for us in the NE Caribbean but a fairly strong open wave for us.However we can get some squally weather meaning some heavy downpours with some gusty winds as it moves thru.The timeframe for the islands is late Sunday for the Lesser Antilles and for the BVI,U.S.VI and Puerto Rico by late Monday or tuesday depending on the motion.

[NDG]

From the NHC 8:05 AM EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:

"...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N46W...OR ABOUT 1000 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 46W-47W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT."

Pressure up.

Look at that center estimate - 46W? That's 120nm east of the center. Here's a recent visible. I can barely see any evidence left of the center. It's taking on the appearance of an open wave now. Somewhere near 11N/47.8W if there's anything left.

I disagree with you, but I still see a circulation, westerly winds not as evident as yesterday but it still has an inflow, center near 11N & 47.7W

[wxman57]

or the rgb images and loops..

because those images are so low resolution.. at least use the navy site.. i have no problems this morning finding the center.. but anyway off to do some more differential equations!

Got a 12Z visible and there could be a broad low center around 47.5W. I'm still at home. Have a Thursday morning briefing at a major oil company's office near my house then I go to our office around 8:45am. Will be in meetings from 9am-5pm today, so I'll not be posting. Maybe 1 McIDAS image when I get back to the office. Sure looks like it's opening up into a wave now. Circulation is very weak. I think the threat of TC development is about gone now.

By the way, I find that Monterey site to be one of the more difficult sites to navigate on the Internet. I've never been able to find anything there. Very poorly laid out. The "good stuff" is very well hidden.

[msbee]

No storm for us in the NE Caribbean but a fairly strong open wave for us.However we can get some squally weather meaning some heavy downpours with some gusty winds as it moves thru.The timeframe for the islands is late Sunday for the Lesser Antilles and for the BVI,U.S.VI and Puerto Rico by late Monday or tuesday depending on the motion.

well, we have those gusty winds already it seems
Latest 8 AM (12) Jul 05 84 (29) 71 (22) 30.09 (1019) ESE 16 MPH

[knotimpaired]

Thanks Luis.

If you do not know by now, all of us east of you have such high regards for your thoughts.

Kudos.

[NDG]

No storm for us in the NE Caribbean but a fairly strong open wave for us.However we can get some squally weather meaning some heavy downpours with some gusty winds as it moves thru.The timeframe for the islands is late Sunday for the Lesser Antilles and for the BVI,U.S.VI and Puerto Rico by late Monday or tuesday depending on the motion.

well, we have those gusty winds already it seems
Latest 8 AM (12) Jul 05 84 (29) 71 (22) 30.09 (1019) ESE 16 MPH

By the way is being moving I would say late Sat night for the lesser Antilles, late Sun night for P.R. & V.I.

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. \

I think by the time 96L makes it to the Leeward and Virgin Islands including PR it will still be a wave with minimal shower activity with it due to dry air killing it just north of it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[windstorm99]

As others have noted on the lastest quikscat it does not show much evidence of a LLC with 96L but infact more of a wave or surface trof in the area.I think the more likely outcome is a strong TW for the islands and puerto rico.

I think there's still a small window for some slight intensification before upper level winds become unfavorable in its future path.Adrian

[msbee]

Thanks Luis.

If you do not know by now, all of us east of you have such high regards for your thoughts.

Kudos.

Ditto!

[windstorm99]

This watervapor image says it all.

[skysummit]

I can almost hear those bubbly sounds when you're sucking a straw and there's nothing left to your drink.

[boca]

I can almost hear those bubbly sounds when you're sucking a straw and there's nothing left to your drink.

Thats funny also for you trekkies out there she's dead Jim.

[Trader Ron]

It's not only the Dry Air. Climatology is an added factor.

[beachbum_al]

Well it seems like the dry air is all around her but never know what will happen.

[Sjones]

I don't know why...but I have a feeling she's not over with yet...

[Chacor]

1402Z QScat shows one 30-kt vector but still no closed circulation.

['CaneFreak]

Yep...she's done....as of early this morning she is an open wave...no westerly wind vectors on this map...so therefore it can now be classified as an open wave...its undergoing 10 to 20kts of RELATIVE shear and the circulation now appears to be slowly shutting down. 10 to 20kts is enough to shut this open wave down. There appears to be minimal convection associated with the system and its chances for development are back at zero.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &SIZE=full

[windstorm99]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Cyclone1]

Well, that's it then. 96L is a goner. Darn it I had faith in this one.