Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Trader Ron]

Stick a fork in 96L. Next.

[wzrgirl1]

Still not officially dead yet....but the next couple of days should be it's deminse as upper level conditions won't be favorable.

[drezee]

I am glad you all aren't doctors. Giving up om patients so easily...

[skysummit]

Here's a little something different from 96..a blow up of t-storms during the day? WOW

[Aric Dunn]

It's not only the Dry Air. Climatology is an added factor.

not to be picky or anything.. but climatology is not a realtime weather factor it does not effect the day to day occurrences because .. its history..

[skysummit]

It's not only the Dry Air. Climatology is an added factor.

not to be picky or anything.. but climatology is not a realtime weather factor it does not effect the day to day occurrences because .. its history..

Right, and climatology is not what's eating up 96. If it weren't for the dry air, we'd probably be dealing with at least a depression today if not a TS.

[NDG]

Who says 96L is gone? It still has well define circulation, given the fact that there is so much dry air, it should had been gone a long time ago, and I don't think that higher windshear, which should not be that bad, will make this go away that fast.

[Cyclone1]

Here's a little something different from 96..a blow up of t-storms during the day? WOW

Hmm... Look at that! Maybe she's not done yet. If convection's flaring up now, looking forward to tonight.

[punkyg]

Here's a little something different from 96..a blow up of t-storms during the day? WOW

Hmm... Look at that! Maybe she's not done yet. If convection's flaring up now, looking forward to tonight.

I agree.

[cycloneye]

A 1014 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 11N49W IS MOVING W 10-15
KT. THIS WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MINIMAL TSTM ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO THE SRN SEMICIRCLE. VIS IMAGERY TODAY HAS SHOWN THAT
THE CIRCULATION APPEARS OPEN AT TIMES...SO TO BETTER FIT THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED ALONG THE LOW AT
18Z.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

2 PM Discussion by TPC.

An open tropical wave will be analized at the 18z anaylsis and added to the 8 PM EDT discussion by TPC.

[Trader Ron]

It's not only the Dry Air. Climatology is an added factor.

not to be picky or anything.. but climatology is not a realtime weather factor it does not effect the day to day occurrences because .. its history..

I beg to differ. Climatology certainly has a role to play during the season. Why does TWC mention it during their tropical updates?

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

It's not only the Dry Air. Climatology is an added factor.

not to be picky or anything.. but climatology is not a realtime weather factor it does not effect the day to day occurrences because .. its history..

I beg to differ. Climatology certainly has a role to play during the season. Why does TWC mention it during their tropical updates?

let me rephrase.. climatology.. is not a high pressure its not shear... its not low pressure , its not dry air.. its not a TS,TD,hurricane.. its not a TUTT its not SSTS, its not wind or any weather at all ... it is historical data used to forecast potential weather events.. it is not a weather event on its own..

hence when someone says "climatology tells us" .. blah blah blah..

[Aric Dunn]

and i hate to say it but its not a open wave.. just watch the visible loops still a well defined center..
i guess i'm a "open wave" because that is not..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[punkyg]

and i hate to say it but its not a open wave.. just watch the visible loops still a well defined center..
i guess i'm a "open wave" because that is not..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

I agree.

[Aric Dunn]

676
ABNT20 KNHC 052119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Wthrman13]

It's not only the Dry Air. Climatology is an added factor.

not to be picky or anything.. but climatology is not a realtime weather factor it does not effect the day to day occurrences because .. its history..

I beg to differ. Climatology certainly has a role to play during the season. Why does TWC mention it during their tropical updates?

The term "climatology" is often thrown around in a sloppy manner (even by professional meteorologists) that confuses people into thinking that it's some factor on par with any other weather factor, such as shear, moisture, pressure patterns, and the like.

Climatology is nothing more than the average of weather over a long period of time at any given location. Aric is correct, it is not a physical factor in day-to-day weather. TWC mentions it often because it's a useful concept when we have incomplete knowledge about the current or near-future state of the weather (which is all of the time!). When in doubt, climatology will tell you that certain weather phenomena, such as TC's, are more likely to form during certain periods of the year in certain areas. But this is nothing but statistics. There is no forcing term for climatology in the equations of motion for the atmosphere. It is not some magic aura that aids or suppresses the development of a TC. If the current conditions are right in a certain area, a TC will form no matter what day of the year or location. The same goes for any other weather phenomenon.

[punkyg]

Do you think the new convection firing to the northeast of the center means anything?
I think help it hold together until it reaches the islands.

[hial2]

In a few weeks 96l will be just a number from the past...things will get going soon enough elsewhere,something with "meat" in it..
96l is just a tempest in a teapot..(pun intended)

[Aric Dunn]

It's not only the Dry Air. Climatology is an added factor.

not to be picky or anything.. but climatology is not a realtime weather factor it does not effect the day to day occurrences because .. its history..

I beg to differ. Climatology certainly has a role to play during the season. Why does TWC mention it during their tropical updates?

The term "climatology" is often thrown around in a sloppy manner (even by professional meteorologists) that confuses people into thinking that it's some factor on par with any other weather factor, such as shear, moisture, pressure patterns, and the like.

Climatology is nothing more than the average of weather over a long period of time at any given location. Aric is correct, it is not a physical factor in day-to-day weather. TWC mentions it often because it's a useful concept when we have incomplete knowledge about the current or near-future state of the weather (which is all of the time!). When in doubt, climatology will tell you that certain weather phenomena, such as TC's, are more likely to form during certain periods of the year in certain areas. But this is nothing but statistics. There is no forcing term for climatology in the equations of motion for the atmosphere. It is not some magic aura that aids or suppresses the development of a TC. If the current conditions are right in a certain area, a TC will form no matter what day of the year or location. The same goes for any other weather phenomenon.[/quote]

exactly what i said... thank you for confirming that