Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[msbee]

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 11N50W
OR ABOUT 650 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MINIMAL
TSTM ACTIVITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ALONG 49W/50W. MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW/TROPICAL WAVE
SHOULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SAT.


As it was stated in the 2 PM discussion from TPC,this system would be analized in this 8 PM discussion as a wave and indeed it is now.They call it a Low/Tropical Wave.The members who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands can breath more easy now.msbee,dont cancel your travel plans and leave the shutters in storage.I hope that we dont have to use them later on.

Hi Luis
this is the first I could post and stay logged in .
I am not canceling my travel plans. I will be flying as planned to PR on Monday and the shutters are still in storage too
Barbara

[NDG]

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 11N50W
OR ABOUT 650 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MINIMAL
TSTM ACTIVITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ALONG 49W/50W. MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW/TROPICAL WAVE
SHOULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SAT.


As it was stated in the 2 PM discussion from TPC,this system would be analized in this 8 PM discussion as a wave and indeed it is now.They call it a Low/Tropical Wave.The members who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands can breath more easy now.msbee,dont cancel your travel plans and leave the shutters in storage.I hope that we dont have to use them later on.

Back at the 2 PM discussion it was very clearly stated to me that a tropical wave trough was going to be added to the Low, that it was not going to be analyzed as an "open wave" or that they were going to drop the low, at least not yet.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 060046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC FRI JUL 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070706 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070706 0000 070706 1200 070707 0000 070707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 50.5W 12.0N 54.0W 12.6N 57.2W 13.3N 60.7W
BAMD 11.3N 50.5W 11.7N 52.8W 12.1N 54.8W 12.3N 56.8W
BAMM 11.3N 50.5W 11.8N 53.4W 12.3N 56.2W 12.6N 59.2W
LBAR 11.3N 50.5W 11.6N 53.4W 12.1N 56.7W 12.5N 60.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070708 0000 070709 0000 070710 0000 070711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 64.0W 16.6N 71.6W 18.8N 79.3W 20.8N 86.9W
BAMD 12.4N 58.8W 12.6N 63.0W 13.5N 67.8W 14.7N 73.5W
BAMM 13.1N 62.1W 14.2N 68.6W 15.6N 75.8W 16.5N 83.0W
LBAR 13.1N 63.3W 14.7N 69.4W 15.7N 74.8W 11.7N 75.0W
SHIP 36KTS 38KTS 37KTS 37KTS
DSHP 36KTS 38KTS 37KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 50.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 47.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 45.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


00:00z run of the tropical models.

I am surprised that they are still running on this.

[Aric Dunn]

WHXX01 KWBC 060046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC FRI JUL 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070706 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070706 0000 070706 1200 070707 0000 070707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 50.5W 12.0N 54.0W 12.6N 57.2W 13.3N 60.7W
BAMD 11.3N 50.5W 11.7N 52.8W 12.1N 54.8W 12.3N 56.8W
BAMM 11.3N 50.5W 11.8N 53.4W 12.3N 56.2W 12.6N 59.2W
LBAR 11.3N 50.5W 11.6N 53.4W 12.1N 56.7W 12.5N 60.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070708 0000 070709 0000 070710 0000 070711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 64.0W 16.6N 71.6W 18.8N 79.3W 20.8N 86.9W
BAMD 12.4N 58.8W 12.6N 63.0W 13.5N 67.8W 14.7N 73.5W
BAMM 13.1N 62.1W 14.2N 68.6W 15.6N 75.8W 16.5N 83.0W
LBAR 13.1N 63.3W 14.7N 69.4W 15.7N 74.8W 11.7N 75.0W
SHIP 36KTS 38KTS 37KTS 37KTS
DSHP 36KTS 38KTS 37KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 50.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 47.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 45.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


00:00z run of the tropical models.

I am surprised that they are still running on this.

im not.. circulation although small .. is still fairly well defined... and now we at least have more convection that has been staying around longer

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is amazingly still a well-defined small area of circulation
Though dry air has caused some drying, there
may be a chance for development if the circulation can
maintain itself and the system can fight off the dry
air.

[Aric Dunn]

and actually i think they did stop ... the last one was 24 hours ago . now it seems they started again...
the models i mean .. yeah just check they have not been doing them at all today till now

[Aric Dunn]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This could refire over the Caribbean...there will
still be a battle with dry air...but it may refire.
That forecast path brings it over some very
high heat content waters...

[NDG]

If there's any sort of organized or semi-organized system left by the time it gets to the central or western Caribbean, conditions might be better for further development with an upper high developing in the eastern gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah .. or some weird crap happens and we have a cat 5 in the morn lol ....

[punkyg]

Its funny how all of yall are interested in 96L again.
Did she come to yalls homes and threaten to ruin your weekends and vacations
I know she destroyed my screen porch. JOKE!

[Aric Dunn]

Its funny how all of yall are interested in 96L again.
Did she come to yalls homes and threaten to ruin your weekends and vacations
I know she destroyed my screen porch. JOKE!

i never stopped..

[punkyg]

Its funny how all of yall are interested in 96L again.
Did she come to yalls homes and threaten to ruin your weekends and vacations
I know she destroyed my screen porch. JOKE!

i never stopped..

Aric i know you didn't lose interest in dear old 96L
I know i haven't yet. she might cough up some of that mean ole dry air tonight and survive til the
tomorrow afternoon, but its a long shot.

[Aric Dunn]

moisture is still increasing .. compare this mid level wv with earlier to day or even last night ..

there is always a chance

[Aric Dunn]

do this loop but omit all images except the last 10 to 15 images..


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

[punkyg]

What?

[jrod]

Nice, you made it to 1000 Aric. Too bad I missed last year's season and didn't have internet for most of the '05 season or I might be up there too.

[Aric Dunn]

Nice, you made it to 1000 Aric. Too bad I missed last year's season and didn't have internet for most of the '05 season or I might be up there too.

lol ../ you mean posts... i did not even know what it was till i noticed it changed every so often.. wow 1000 post i think at the beginning of june i had like .. 300 lol

i think last year i only post like twice.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

What?

do that loop .. and click on the images and stop them, from looping.. so you only loop the last 2 days or so .. instead of the 10 days .. the loop normally does..

[jrod]

It looks like a little storm popped up near the center of 96L, this low does not want to die! How long can this thing last on life support?