Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like a little storm popped up near the center of 96L, this low does not want to die! How long can this thing last on life support?

yeah .. there is a little more inflow this evening.. and more mid level moisture.. lets see if it can keep refireing

[jrod]

As I posted that, I noticed that little cell appears to be on the way out. My weekend starts in about an hour so I won;t be watching the satellite frame by frame. It 96L is still alive Sunday evening I will be suprised.

[Aric Dunn]

nice ridge in place.. !! no north motion..

[Opal storm]

This little thing is toast, sorry guys but climo is most likely going to win this battle.

[punkyg]

This little thing is toast, sorry guys but climo is most likely going to win this battle.

I'm not gonna give up until i see this thing dry up or ripped apart!

[Aric Dunn]

This little thing is toast, sorry guys but climo is most likely going to win this battle.

I'm not gonna give up until i see this thing dry up or ripped apart!

sounds goood.. its not dead .. yet moisture is on the incrase. slowly it still has a chance before the shears picks .. up and the shear may help it briefly.. with some lift and maybe yet advect some moisture in the mid and upper levels .. be fore the shear gets to strong..

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

It looks so much better, then earlier BUT!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

It got dry air on the northern and western sides
I know theres some on the eastern side, but its not a bad.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah im just going to keep watching it, ...

[punkyg]

Good Night

[Aric Dunn]

[Normandy]

I would really advise all of you to just get out and enjoy the quietness while it lasts....its really not worth it just tracking stray clouds through the atlantic...

Plus, itll save u energy for when things really heat up (when u need to be up all night).

[Opal storm]

.. its not dead ..

Whats your definition of dead? I've seen afternoon thunderstorms that look MUCH better than this thing. It looked pretty good a few days ago, but right now it's on it's way out.

[Coredesat]

That thing's dead. No other way around it.

[Toadstool]

I would really advise all of you to just get out and enjoy the quietness while it lasts....its really not worth it just tracking stray clouds through the atlantic...

Plus, itll save u energy for when things really heat up (when u need to be up all night).

I agree... thank goodness for decent weather, and love the quietness of the season so far!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

(Image you provided from CSU that cannot be linked to directly.)
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
North Atlantic Basin > Early-cycle intensity guidance > And currently frame 1

In regards to SHF5, which is the SHIFOR5, 5 day version of SHIFOR:

"Similar to the CLIPER track model, the SHIFOR (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast model) is used as a "no-skill" intensity change forecast. It is a multiple regression statistical model that best utilizes the persistence of the intensity trends and also incorporates climatological intensity change information (Jarvinen and Neumann 1979). SHIFOR has been difficult to exceed until recent years."

From: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html

And while it goes on to say that the model has been rather accurate, I think in this situation, you have to consider the difficulty in predicting what this invest (again an invest as of 0Z) will do.

---

I would also like to note that the SHIPS model does something rather odd starting at 108 hours:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
Link does not update. Check folder for latest SHIPS output:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

You can see the track on the image from SFWMD:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_96.gif

A sudden left turn. So I would question it as well. I would also question it after 48 hours as well.

"The SHIPS model is run using input from the GFS model."
From this page: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

And I don't know for sure, but since "LOST" is noted after 48 hours by "GFS VTEX (KT)" anything after that might be considered questionable. HOWEVER, I am not sure what that is precisely. I'm trying to figure it out. I would assume GFS Vorticity (in knots) and that the model can't find any spin after that. But once again I don't know for sure on that point.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Aric Dunn]

[weatherwindow]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

woke up at an obscene hour..and surprise, surprise...a decent, peristent blowup...maybe, just maybe..96 will survive another day....good call aric....rich

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Looks almost like the ITCZ is giving it some support perhaps.

Shear map shows the shear well:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Rainbow floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

You can see that WSW shear is blowing off storms toward the ENE from the mostly exposed center. Things are getting hostile, but it is still surviving so far with its nightly burst of convection.

From the 5:30 AM EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

The ATWO also mentions the low off Florida.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0903.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

This little thing is toast, sorry guys but climo is most likely going to win this battle.

I'm not gonna give up until i see this thing dry up or ripped apart!

sounds goood.. its not dead .. yet moisture is on the incrase. slowly it still has a chance before the shears picks .. up and the shear may help it briefly.. with some lift and maybe yet advect some moisture in the mid and upper levels .. be fore the shear gets to strong..

that is what i wrote last evening...