WPAC: 90W INVEST POOR

[Chacor]

New INVEST in the WPac, and with QUITE the convection associated with it too.

[Chacor]

1200Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 03N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Chacor]

1800:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 04N 146E WEST SLOWLY.

JTWC 0030:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.2N 147.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT MULTISECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 29/2043Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEAL FLARING
CONVECTION NEAR AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED
BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT YET FORMED
OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

0000:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 04N 146E WEST SLOWLY.

[P.K.]

Not even a LPA any more at 0600.

[alan1961]

Yes this looked like becoming one of the first major typhoon's of the western pacific season until it died a death

[Chacor]

This is interesting, from 0900Z earlier today, the discussion from NWS Guam...

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS KEEP US IN
TRADE-WIND FLOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GFS40 DOES TRY TO PRODUCE A LARGE TC TO THE EAST OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS BY THE SECOND WEEK IN JULY. THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING
ITS USUAL STUNT OF PUSHING THE CIRCULATION FURTHER AND FURTHER INTO
THE FUTURE EACH MODEL RUN. IT NEVER PINPOINTS A DAY...AT LEAST SO
FAR. NGPS DOES NOT SHOW THIS CIRCULATION AT ALL. OPTED TO NOT EVEN
CONSIDER IT FOR A FEW REASONS. FIRST AND FOREMOST NOTHING IS FORMING
AT THIS TIME. SECOND NO OTHER MODEL SHOWS THIS. ALSO THIS WOULD BE A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN A SEASON THAT LOOKS KIND
OF LACKLUSTER. OF COURSE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BUT HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

[Chacor]

This season is rather slow:

WITH REGARDS TO THE LATEST
03W EVENT...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
JUST ENTERED THE TOP FIVE.

[Chacor]

It's looking better now, though:

01/2033 UTC 5.0N 140.1E T1.0/1.0 90W -- West Pacific Ocean
01/1433 UTC 4.8N 140.8E T1.0/1.0 90W -- West Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 020600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 48N 157E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN
WESTERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST
CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 143E
51N 157E 60N 166E 60N 180E 40N 180E 30N 170E 30N 160E 30N 150E 35N
145E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 43N 125E SE SLOWLY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 37N 125E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 35N 139E ESE 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 29N 151E EAST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 06N 139E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 24N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 42N 136E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 113E TO 33N 121E 35N 129E 34N 135E 35N 139E
34N 140E 33N 142E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[P.K.]

Another LPA has also formed as well as this TD.

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN
WESTERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST
CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 138E 35N 140E
42N 143E 51N 157E 60N 166E 60N 180E 36N 180E 35N 170E 35N 160E 30N
145E 30N 137E 34N 138E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 37N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 58N 138E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 36N 141E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 30N 153E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 992 HPA AT 49N 157E NE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 07N 138E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 15N 113E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 41N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 21N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 36N 141E TO 35N 143E 33N 145E.
COLD FRONT FROM 36N 141E TO 35N 139E 34N 136E 34N 134E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N 134E TO 35N 130E 33N 123E 32N 119E 32N
113E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Chacor]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9N
138.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST
OF KOROR. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022019Z
ASCAT IMAGE REVEAL POORLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG A
SHARP TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES TO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 022216Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS SPARSE
CONVECTION AND A WEAK LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 135E WEST 10 KT.

[Coredesat]

It's baaaack:

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0N 121.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[WindRunner]

It looks as if it should be quite promising once it moves into the South China Sea . . . maybe another system like Toraji - sitting out over the water for a few days in order to consolidate before starting to move again . . .

[Coredesat]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT OF FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.