2006 Pattern Repeat?

[Sanibel]

With 2 weak TS systems forming early in the season followed by an apparent lull in formation of storms or even disturbances, 2007 is looking like a repeat of 2006 in the dry subsidence and upper wind unfavorability pattern. I know this will draw comments of "it's too early to draw any conclusions" etc (and these comments are correct too) but it does look like the "any swirl that forms develops" pattern of 2005 has subsided. What is particularly telling is how 96L appeared to have a good circulation going without any convection. This is very similar to 2006 where systems entered the "no look back" zone in the west Atlantic/Caribbean only to remain weak or fizzle. This would not have happened in 2005 - which goes to show how you can't compare seasons directly. Even consecutive seasons. This is still on the early side as far as the busy time of the season.

Logic says that 2006 won't repeat and if a low-track/ GOM pattern is setting up out of the ITCZ that it is more likely one will take this year since none did last year. But even that logic is never a direct given. We'll see if those who speculate that 96L is the start of a low-track into the GOM pattern are correct? I'm a terrible doomsayer - but it does smell like a weak season that spawns a big one. Who knows?

(Storm2k disclaimer - this is my opinion and has nothing to do with Storm2k or its owners)

[windstorm99]

In all honesty june and july are really not months to judge on how the rest of the season might shape up.

[Frank2]

True, though it's hard to believe that we only have 3 months to go until the mid-October cold fronts begin to impinge on the hurricane season, so...

[MWatkins]

Looking at conditions in the Atlantic in late June and early July…and using that to forecast the peak of the season…would be like saying the Cubs will finish in last place because they are wearing the same uniforms as they did last season.

The Cubs will probably finish in last place anyway…but not because of the uniforms.

There is a reason that tropical systems usually don’t develop in the deep tropics in June/July. There are 2 big ones, actually:

1. A relatively stable atmosphere
2. Hostile upper level winds

96L dissipated because climatology said it would more than any other reason…

Had there been an argument about the steering pattern being like 2006 noting the persistent EC trough that we have had in the last several weeks…I may have bought that. The latest HPC 8 to 14 day outlook suggests this ridge in the west/trough in the east pattern will persist through the next 2 weeks…

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.03.gif

I am not a huge fan of seasonal forecasting…but given the macro conditions of a warm Atlantic and at least a neutral (if not cold) ENSO event, all signs point to an active peak season…although we will probably not see 2005 happen again (hopefully not, anyways).

Now where those storms will eventually track is beyond my ability to project in early July…but no, I do not at all believe this year will be a repeat of last year.

Just for fun…I would suggest those who are interested go look at the last 100 years or so of hurricane maps…it is virtually impossible to find two identical seasons in terms of both track and frequency. The Atlantic is just too variable year over year…

MW

[Trader Ron]

Looking at conditions in the Atlantic in late June and early July…and using that to forecast the peak of the season…would be like saying the Cubs will finish in last place because they are wearing the same uniforms as they did last season.

The Cubs will probably finish in last place anyway…but not because of the uniforms.

There is a reason that tropical systems usually don’t develop in the deep tropics in June/July. There are 2 big ones, actually:

1. A relatively stable atmosphere
2. Hostile upper level winds

96L dissipated because climatology said it would more than any other reason…

Had there been an argument about the steering pattern being like 2006 noting the persistent EC trough that we have had in the last several weeks…I may have bought that. The latest HPC 8 to 14 day outlook suggests this ridge in the west/trough in the east pattern will persist through the next 2 weeks…

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.03.gif

I am not a huge fan of seasonal forecasting…but given the macro conditions of a warm Atlantic and at least a neutral (if not cold) ENSO event, all signs point to an active peak season…although we will probably not see 2005 happen again (hopefully not, anyways).

Now where those storms will eventually track is beyond my ability to project in early July…but no, I do not at all believe this year will be a repeat of last year.

Just for fun…I would suggest those who are interested go look at the last 100 years or so of hurricane maps…it is virtually impossible to find two identical seasons in terms of both track and frequency. The Atlantic is just too variable year over year…

MW

[Frank2]

Well, at least we agree about the trough - and the Cubs (too many ground-rule doubles because of that ivy)...

[dwg71]

I do think you can draw signs from early season patterns and make informed guesses. Its is early, but outside of 2 very marginal storms, its been relatively quiet.

I pray for the same pattern to stay in place all summer long.

[Trader Ron]

Mike,

I was told climatology had nothing to do with 96L going poof...

[CourierPR]

Yes, there is a pattern repeat this season. It's the pattern of posters declaring that the season is over in early July. Folks, relax and enjoy the lull because things will likely get going in ernest sooner than you think. Remember, it only takes one monster storm , like Andrew or Katrina, hitting your area to turn the season into a very bad one.

Barry

[n7ekg]

I'm polling all my friends who claim to be psychic - then we'll see how accurate they are around Oct. 1!

[Sanibel]

There is a reason that tropical systems usually don’t develop in the deep tropics in June/July. There are 2 big ones, actually:

1. A relatively stable atmosphere
2. Hostile upper level winds

96L dissipated because climatology said it would more than any other reason…

While I can't disagree, I will add that Emily was a monster record-setter churning through the same 'unfavorability' just 2 years ago. Yes, 2005 was an exceptional year. I think the media knee-jerked about global warming in relation to it.

Had there been an argument about the steering pattern being like 2006 noting the persistent EC trough that we have had in the last several weeks…I may have bought that. The latest HPC 8 to 14 day outlook suggests this ridge in the west/trough in the east pattern will persist through the next 2 weeks…

I believe this would be similar to 2006? This would point towards a similar subsidence/upper wind pattern as you suggest. The key here being how a naked circulation looked to be getting going only to dissipate. This happened regularly in 2006. The one threat that came into south Florida weakened as it crossed the hot intensification bed of the Florida Straits. If we see another naked system this could reinforce the same pattern being present. Curious EPAC isn't busting out storms either. (global pattern?) I would be wary of a weak EPAC season as far as the rule goes. A weak EPAC season doesn't bode well for US potential.

I am not a huge fan of seasonal forecasting…but given the macro conditions of a warm Atlantic and at least a neutral (if not cold) ENSO event, all signs point to an active peak season…although we will probably not see 2005 happen again (hopefully not, anyways).

This is why the 2006 pattern repeating is relavant. Because we saw, last year, that upper winds and a deep-dipping Atlantic High/subsidence/east tradewind/dust weather pattern trumped peak SST's. I'm very curious if 2007 will experience a similar bust for the same reasons.

[skysummit]

Mike,

I was told climatology had nothing to do with 96L going poof...

As far as an "overall" reason to June/July being quiet and in terms of unfavorable conditions, yes, climatology does play a part in 96L going poof. That is what's "supposed" to happen this early in the season, and is what has happened. However, directly, I don't blame climatology for 96L going poof. Upper level conditions were pretty good in the area of 96L. Actually, they were better than they're supposed to be at this time of year. It was the lack of moisture that 96L had a problem with.

So yea, because climatology says tropical development in the region of 96L's old residence is low for this time of year, I guess I could buy it, but in my opinion, that's just what is normal for this time of year so I can't use climatology as THE excuse

...but I get what you're saying.

[southerngale]

Enjoy the lull... before long, we'll see the comments about people staying up all night waiting on just one more advisory or satellite frame, others scrambling to get their last minute preparations in place just in case it heads (this) way, refreshing a thread after going to the restroom only to find it's already moved 2 or 3 pages, lots of "pizza nights" because the cook of the house can't pull herself/himself away from the computer long enough to prepare a meal, those IV's of coffee, etc.

It's just around the corner.

[Opal storm]

Yes, there is a pattern repeat this season. It's the pattern of posters declaring that the season is over in early July.

So true!!!

[harmclan]

2007 will not be the same as 2006. One consistent pattern seen in 2006 was SAL and dry air. No moisture plus the unstable upper level atmosphere just wouldn't allow any of those systems to really get going. We were also in an El Nino state.

Although the MJO is moving at a slower pace then anticipated it will be set up near the peak of this season, which should create a more moist environment over the Atlantic. SSTs may possibly be even more warm them last year. At least a neutral ENSO (possibly La Nina) will be in place.

[ftolmsteen]

As stated before, it is only July. Don't jump the gun until August. If it's the 2nd week of August and we haven't seen another named storm yet, then it's likely to be a normal year. The GOM and the Carribbean are p*ss warm, (86 degrees in central gulf, July mind you). Once that dry air is no longer dominant in the Atlantic it looks like it should remain an above normal season.

[canegrl04]

The season doesn't really get going until the end of July.The first storm of 2004 developed late this month.Give it a few more weeks

[skysummit]

We all remember when Andrew formed. Busy or not, it just takes one.

[windstorm99]

We all remember when Andrew formed. Busy or not, it just takes one.

Excellent point skysummit.

[wxmann_91]

Mike,

I was told climatology had nothing to do with 96L going poof...

Climo is always misconstrued. It's nothing more than stats. The reason 96L poofed was because of the environment around it. Sure, climo would suggest that that was the most likely scenario, but it was not the reason for it.