Wave? In Eastern Caribbean

[tailgater]

Wave at 33W flaring up this evening. But I can't tell if it is part of a wave or just a flare up along the ITCZ itpretty far south. The Basin has moisten up a good deal in the last week or so. Looks like a weak UUL to it's NW. Thoughts?
Look to the extreme southeast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

[windstorm99]

A bit to south still but will moniter it as we begin doing outhere in the coming weeks.Adrian

[Normandy]

Actually looks farily healthy right now, and doesnt have to deal with dry air.

[wxman57]

Looking at a WV loop, I can see a weak upper trof located along 40W with a weak upper low near 12N/40W. A southerly jet east of the low appears to be ehnancing convection associated with the wave. Conditions aloft aren't favorable for tropical development. Once the wave axis passes the low/trof, convection will likely diminish/dissipate.

[chadtm80]

[alan1961]

Wave at 33W flaring up this evening. But I can't tell if it is part of a wave or just a flare up along the ITCZ itpretty far south. The Basin has moisten up a good deal in the last week or so. Looks like a weak UUL to it's NW. Thoughts?
Look to the extreme southeast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

No chance of this developing tailgater, a clear indicative of this on sat imagery is upper and mid level cloud going in all directions = to much shear.

[jrod]

Quikscat is showing some winds with it. I am not impressed by it.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

[Aric Dunn]

this may actually be something to watch a little closer over the next couple of days.. yesterday it was pretty insignificant .. this afternoon .. well there are some signs that a Low may be forming in the vicinity .. somewhere towards the far east side of that convection.... shear is fine now.. but in 24 hours it should begin to reach stronger shear.. which should help enhance convection.. but would limit any over all orginization in the short term .. but it is much more interesting to day then yesterday

[ronjon]

Long-range GFS indicates this wave expanding and remaining a significant mass of disturbed weather that tracks to the NE leeward islands and eventually into FL and the SE US. That's a long way off, but this feature has been prevalent over the last 2-3 days of runs.

[jrod]

I've seen that on the GFS, about 1 week out it shows a wave north of Hispanola. I suppose it bears watching until it goes poof.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 112020
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 PM AST WED JUL 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING...AND HELPED TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W THIS
AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
TOMORROW...BUT LITTLE LOCAL EFFECT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS WAVE.
HOWEVER..WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT CONTINUED DIURNAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND VI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WEATHER
TO THE REGION...PASSING 30 W THIS AFTERNOON...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

The San Juan NWS discussion is starting to mention this wave in terms of it's possible effects in Puerto Rico and the U.S. V.I.

[Aric Dunn]

this wave is.. a very good candidate ... its is one of the largest and most impressive.. yet this year....there are some hurdles to overcome.. but im am becoming much more interested in this today..

[caribepr]

We have kids coming down from the states for camping and island activities next week, a yearly event. Weirdly EVERY year when they come here, it rains. Looks like they might get soaked again...

[cycloneye]

We have kids coming down from the states for camping and island activities next week, a yearly event. Weirdly EVERY year when they come here, it rains. Looks like they might get soaked again...

Well mj,let's wait and see if it deviates to the NW as some models are showing and passes NE of Culebra so they can enjoy all there next week Of course,you can stay tuned here for all the latest about this wave.

[caribepr]

We have kids coming down from the states for camping and island activities next week, a yearly event. Weirdly EVERY year when they come here, it rains. Looks like they might get soaked again...

Well mj,let's wait and see if it deviates to the NW as some models are showing and passes NE of Culebra so they can enjoy all there next week Of course,you can stay tuned here for all the latest about this wave.

Just like so many do!! And of course...I'm tuned in! It's the season

[punkyg]

This wave don't look organised, but its still good looking.
does this wave have a low with it?

[O Town]

No, not by this map is doesn't.

[cycloneye]

The wave will have to fight this latest sal outbreak.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 31W-33W

http://67.18.196.150/wx/modules.php?nam ... ge&pid=109

8 PM Discussion of wave.No surface low at this time with the wave.

[tailgater]

latest Quick scat
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?507,234
NO organization yet. but some fairly strong breezes. maybe in a couple days if the conditions get better.