Tropical Depression 4-E=Last Advisory Written

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 100058
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0058 UTC TUE JUL 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (EP042007) 20070710 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070710 0000 070710 1200 070711 0000 070711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 119.1W 18.6N 120.8W 19.6N 122.3W 20.7N 123.6W
BAMD 17.5N 119.1W 18.3N 120.4W 19.0N 121.7W 19.6N 122.9W
BAMM 17.5N 119.1W 18.3N 120.7W 19.0N 122.4W 19.6N 124.1W
LBAR 17.5N 119.1W 18.1N 120.3W 19.1N 122.0W 20.1N 123.6W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 26KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070712 0000 070713 0000 070714 0000 070715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 124.6W 24.4N 126.4W 26.7N 128.0W 28.6N 129.3W
BAMD 20.3N 124.0W 22.2N 125.2W 24.5N 126.4W 26.6N 127.7W
BAMM 20.6N 125.7W 23.1N 127.8W 26.2N 129.2W 29.6N 129.9W
LBAR 21.8N 125.2W 26.5N 127.2W 35.9N 127.4W 41.9N 126.3W
SHIP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 119.1W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 118.1W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 116.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

No Cosme according to the 00:00z models.

[CrazyC83]

This is really going to have a hard time becoming Cosme. If it does so, it will probably be in the next 6 to 12 hours.

[Cyclenall]

I have a feeling TD4-E will dissipate tomorrow at 5:00 pm EST or 10:00 pm EST. The convection is quite shallow right now and the environment it's heading into is "depressing".

[Chacor]

Really disappointing this has become nothing. Much like 03E it looked good for forming, but formed way too late and has no time to strengthen.

And I don't think it's a great idea to have so many threads on one system. Maybe a maximum of three (one for LOW/TD, one for TS/STS and one for HU/TY).

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 100229
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2007

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REALLY FIZZLED TONIGHT NEAR THE ILL-DEFINED
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
NOT CHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 30 KT. FOR THE SHORT-TERM...PERSISTENCE IS A GOOD BET
BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GUIDANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A
RESULT OF THE DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO COOLER SSTS AND A MORE
STABLE MARINE LAYER.

AN AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 2100 UTC SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS
FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED...SO A NORTHWARD RELOCATION WAS MADE
IN THIS ADVISORY. THE LONG-TERM MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 7 KT. A GRADUAL SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOMEWHAT TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION...BUT OTHERWISE IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE LAST FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 17.7N 119.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 18.2N 120.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 18.8N 121.8W 25 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 19.4N 123.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

[b000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100852
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT IS
DISPLACED NORTH OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
STILL...IT IS ENOUGH TO HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION
SEEMS TO HAVE EVERYTHING WORKING AGAINST IT INCLUDING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR...AND A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR SO.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE LAST FEW FRAMES INDICATE THE
INITIAL MOTION...300/9...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED. AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW
SYSTEM...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 18.3N 120.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 19.5N 122.9W 25 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

][/b]

[AnnularCane]

Looks like the little guy's flared up quite a bit lately.

[Chacor]

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED LITTLE
ASSISTANCE IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 0937 UTC AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR
ABOUT FOUR OR FIVE HOURS. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
POSITION AS WELL AS THE LONGEVITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/8. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH CAUSED BY PRESENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.

DESPITE THE CURRENT DEEP CONVECTION...BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. WITH WATERS
BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO
INCREASE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 18.6N 120.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 19.2N 121.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 19.9N 123.4W 25 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 20.6N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/1200Z 20.9N 126.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

NNNN

[Cyclenall]

TD4-E was just about dead last night at 3:00 UTC time and what really saved it was the huge burst of convection during the overnight and early morning hours. I'm going to say the NHC would have not kept it a TD if it continued losing convection like that.

This post was made without seeing or reading any of the NHC discussions on TD4-E.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 102029
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS QUICKLY
DETERIORATED TODAY...AND THE CYCLONE HAS LOST ALMOST ALL OF ITS
DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND
ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE COOL WATERS AND
MODERATE SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE AND
THE DEPRESSION SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/8. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT THE TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 19.4N 121.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 122.3W 25 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 20.6N 123.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/0600Z 21.3N 125.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Andrew92]

Ya beat me to it by 2 seconds Luis!

Stick a fork in this one, it's done. NEXT.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Ya beat me to it by 2 seconds Luis!

Stick a fork in this one, it's done. NEXT.

-Andrew92

Cosme has to wait for a while longer.

[Cyclenall]

Will the last discussion be written at 11:00 pm EST? I think it could be.

I have a feeling TD4-E will dissipate tomorrow at 5:00 pm EST or 10:00 pm EST. The convection is quite shallow right now and the environment it's heading into is "depressing".
I have a feeling TD4-E will dissipate tomorrow at 5:00 pm EST or 10:00 pm EST. The convection is quite shallow right now and the environment it's heading into is "depressing".

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 110240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007

ANIMATED GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
SEPARATED FROM THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION AT AROUND
18Z...AND BECAME FULLY EXPOSED AFTER ABOUT 21Z. IT HAS BEEN EASY
TO TRACK SINCE THEN AND HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8-9 KT.
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO
INDICATES THAT THIS IS THE SAME CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAD BEEN
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN COMPLETELY ABSENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT
23-24 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE HAS FALLEN APART AND A COMEBACK APPEARS
UNLIKELY... SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATING COMPLETELY IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 18.9N 123.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 11/1200Z 18.8N 124.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 12/0000Z 18.8N 126.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN


Adios.!

[Andrew92]

See-yuh.

EDIT: Geez Luis, you beat me to it by 2 seconds again! LOL

[Cyclenall]

Will the last discussion be written at 11:00 pm EST? I think it could be.

I have a feeling TD4-E will dissipate tomorrow at 5:00 pm EST or 10:00 pm EST. The convection is quite shallow right now and the environment it's heading into is "depressing".

I rest my case. I was correct and I made the prediction yesterday originally!

[HURAKAN]

If you are there, knock twice!!!

[Chacor]

Cool that a circulation is still visible on IR.

[WmE]

Cool that a circulation is still visible on IR.

Yep, it looks just like Chris last year. Just a naked swirl.

[HURAKAN]

In most basins, most storms become extratropical or die quite rapidly after landfall. The case of the EPAC is very different, most of the storms have a slow death becoming ghostly features at the end of their life.