Wave? In Eastern Caribbean

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Toadstool
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#41 Postby Toadstool » Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:27 pm

harmclan wrote:Dennis originated from an Inverted V wave.

The genesis Katrina was influenced by mid-latitude and tropical interactions. The precursor to Hurricane Katrina could be traced to convection along the tail-end of a mid-latitude trough on 14 August. That convection drifted south and then northwestward. Between 17 and 18 August, evidence of a vortex northeast of Puerto Rico could be seen in water vapor image. That upper-level vortex drifted northwestward and then southwestward towards the eastern Bahamas over the next three days. During the same period, a second cyclonic circulation centered at 500hPa over Hispaniola produced several MCSs. A tropical wave entered the eastern Caribbean but weakened as it moved westward. By 21 August, convection over the Caribbean was primarily associated with the mid-level circulation over Hispaniola. Between 22 and 23 August, the northern upper-level circulation merged with the strengthening mid-level circulation. Convection intensified around was now a tropical depression. An interesting feature of the period of intensification was very dry middle-level air mixing into to the west and north of the tropical depression.


Thanks Harmclan!
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#42 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Jul 12, 2007 8:59 pm

Hmm, the latest Tropical update on TWC has metioned this wave and where the models are taking it, this is a lot of hype over one model.
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#43 Postby vaffie » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:21 pm

Appears possible that an upper level high will build over the tropical wave in 72 hours as it approaches the islands. comments welcome.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds72.aspx
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#44 Postby boca » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:47 pm

vaffie wrote:Appears possible that an upper level high will build over the tropical wave in 72 hours as it approaches the islands. comments welcome.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds72.aspx


Lets see if the wave can make it to the islands before the dry air starves it of moisture.If it can gather enough convergence of moisture we might have a player unlike 96L.
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#45 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:26 am

I still believe that this wave has some potential .. its very large and has a strong inverted V .. just watch and see what happens.. over the next day//

before we write it off..
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#46 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:20 am

Appears possible that an upper level high will build over the tropical wave in 72 hours as it approaches the islands. comments welcome.


The ULL that is forecast to drop down west of the storm may provide some shear once this gets into the Caribbean.

The dry ULL to the north of the storm has been keeping the convection down thus far, but there is more moisture out there now than with the last two waves and the energy is a little further north.

As Luis mentioned no Mets Expecting A Threat yet.
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#47 Postby ronjon » Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:46 am

From NWS Key West AFD:

THE GFS HAS A TUTT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION APPROACHING ON A TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE 24 HOUR POPS ARE NEAR 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY CARRYING MEDIUM CHANCE IN FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD AT THAT WITH RECOMMENDATION THAT IF FEATURE PERSISTS IN MODEL OUTPUT TO BEGIN INCREASING POPS THIS WEEKEND.
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#48 Postby ronjon » Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:57 am

Wave is developing some heavy convection this morning around 12.5N-42.5W. It's separated itself from the ITCZ.

Image
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Re: Wave? WSW of Cape Verde islands

#49 Postby Derecho » Fri Jul 13, 2007 6:15 am

[quote="DESTRUCTION5]
CMC called Barry this year..[/quote]

And a vast array of modelstorms that never formed - it has more boguscanes than any other model, likely due to its primitive nature.
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#50 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Jul 13, 2007 6:33 am

I'd believe the CMC way before the GFS. I don't think the GFS oper. has ever been right for the weekend forecast in S. florida. Whenever it bumps the rain chances from Mon.- Wend. for the weekend you know it will be a nice weekend. And everytime it works. :lol:
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#51 Postby punkyg » Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:25 am

Man i can't find the wave yall are talking about.
is it near south america?
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#52 Postby tailgater » Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:26 am

We should probably just go with the GEB model, before anything actually forms, and just throw all the other models out because they can't be trusted. They have done terrbile in the EPAC also. :roll:
Oh yeah the GEB stands for Gobal Eye Ball
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Re:

#53 Postby O Town » Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:41 am

punkyg wrote:Man i can't find the wave yall are talking about.
is it near south america?


Image
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Re:

#54 Postby skysummit » Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:44 am

punkyg wrote:Man i can't find the wave yall are talking about.
is it near south america?


Image

Image
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#55 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:53 am

If this thing holds together and winds up doing what the Canadian model is hinting at, kudos to them,but sympathy for Floridians
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#56 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:06 am

The only comment I'll make is that in a contest for the WORST tropical model, the Canadian model barely beats the NAM for top honors. But it was really close. ;-)
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#57 Postby skysummit » Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:10 am

wxman57 wrote:The only comment I'll make is that in a contest for the WORST tropical model, the Canadian model barely beats the NAM for top honors. But it was really close. ;-)


For some reason, I like the CMC. LOL...call me stupid, but I do. Never mind, I'll do it.....Sky, you're stupid for liking the CMC.
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#58 Postby Meso » Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:18 am

You probably like it for the same reason as me,it provides hope for something to track.. Even if it doesn't come true,watching a model show something is more exciting than nothing :|
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#59 Postby tailgater » Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:19 am

Sky you sound like me playing golf.
Back to this wave, It's not looking very healthy this morning but no one was predicting much out of it till reach the Islands if then.
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Re: Wave? Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

#60 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:27 am

Its obvious that the best model in this situation is the M8B (Magic 8 Ball) :D

"Magic 8 Ball, will this system form?"
"Yes"
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