Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[Ptarmigan]

Looking better. The eyewall has closed back up again, and the system doesn't look as ragged as it did before. Probably not what Kyushu wants to see.

With my amateur eyes, I say, its at least a Category 2.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

About 95 knots maybe a little more. Strong cat2...It is not out of the possible it could be strong as Rita 2005 at landfall. Cat3? But we will see.

[CrazyC83]

Last estimate had it at 90kt (105mph) - Category 2. Looks kinda like Isabel I find.

[CherlynV]

24-hour total at Kadena Ab, Japan

Precipitation
Amount
0.40 inches In the 3 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 10:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1455 UTC
1.55 inches In the 6 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 07:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1155 UTC
25.50 inches In the 24 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 07:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1155 UTC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am not surprised by all that rain. Japan gets most of its rain from typhoons.

Actually, I believe that most of Japan's rain comes from the Biau boundary (also known as Mei-yu in China, Changma in Korea). This boundary waves over Japan during transition seasons (approx May and Oct), bringing a drastic change in weather conditions as well as lot of rain.

I will check on this, but I know that this is what gives S. Korea most of its rain... I believe Japan is the same.

[miamicanes177]

Last estimate had it at 90kt (105mph) - Category 2. Looks kinda like Isabel I find.

JMA maintains category 3 major hurricane...85kts sustained 10 minute average which corresponds to 111mph.

[CherlynV]

24-hour total at Kadena Ab, Japan

Precipitation
Amount
0.40 inches In the 3 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 10:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1455 UTC
1.55 inches In the 6 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 07:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1155 UTC
25.50 inches In the 24 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 07:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1155 UTC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where did you get this number? Looking at the Kadena Weather Flight's web page, 9.70 inches is recorded for the 13th, and 0.59 for the 12th, bringing the total to 10.29.

[CherlynV]

24-hour total at Kadena Ab, Japan

Precipitation
Amount
0.40 inches In the 3 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 10:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1455 UTC
1.55 inches In the 6 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 07:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1155 UTC
25.50 inches In the 24 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 07:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1155 UTC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unless you meant centimeters.

[jrod]

I found this clip from some Marines stationed over there. There is some profane language to warn y'all.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=6a5_1184328031

[Chacor]

24-hour total at Kadena Ab, Japan

Precipitation
Amount
0.40 inches In the 3 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 10:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1455 UTC
1.55 inches In the 6 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 07:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1155 UTC
25.50 inches In the 24 hours preceding Jul 13, 2007 - 07:55 AM EDT / 2007.07.13 1155 UTC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unless you meant centimeters.

I think that's from NOAA's weather page for RODN.

[cycloneye]

:00 UTC, 14 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 30.4N 129.3E GOOD
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 230NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 34.0N 135.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 160000UTC 35.4N 142.3E 170NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 170000UTC 36.6N 146.8E 290NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT


JMA latest advisory has it at 85kts.

[HURAKAN]

13/2033 UTC 30.0N 128.7E T5.0/5.0 MAN-YI
13/1433 UTC 28.9N 127.8E T4.5/5.5 MAN-YI

Not a surprise the fact that Dvorak notices the increase in organization.

[btangy]

I think some really favorable upper level divergence is helping Man-Yi maintain its intensity despite decreasing ocean heat content. It's in a bit of a bubble of lower shear, and its large size is probably helping to fend off the shear as well.

[Derek Ortt]

The Dvorak estimate is actually lower.

While the data T number increased, the CI number decreased

[miamicanes177]

JMA reiterates Man-Yi maintains category 3 intensity as it nears landfall. I agree and believe this will make landfall at category 3 intensity as it is now to late for significant weakening to category 2.

[HurricaneBill]

What was the last typhoon to make landfall on Japan with 85KT sustained winds or higher? According to JMA, of course.

[CherlynV]

What was the last typhoon to make landfall on Japan with 85KT sustained winds or higher? According to JMA, of course.

Not sure about JMA, but I thought I would toss Kadena Air Base's stats into the mix... the last typhoon with winds >85 knots was typhoon Etau, from 6-8 August, 2003. Max winds were 62G98.

[Coredesat]

The eye is just about to make landfall on Kyushu.

[MiamiensisWx]

The eye is moving ashore...

[Chacor]

JMA expects landfall just past 04Z (their one-hour forecast has it 10 miles off the coast).

Kagoshima Airport obs: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RJFK.html

[miamicanes177]

0300 JMA update keeps it at cat 3 intensity and this is the last advisory before landfall. I noticed that Jeff Masters said today in his blog he thought it would come ashore as a cat 1. This caught a bunch of people off guard as it maintained a good strength coming in. Hopefully everyone got out of the way of this one.