Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[Chacor]

Down to 969 hPa at RJFK/Kagoshima.

[Chacor]

[dwsqos2]

Miyazaki Airport Observations:

METAR RJFM 140600Z 14057G79KT 0300 R27/0150V0300N +SHRA FEW005 SCT008 BKN010 24/23 Q0958



Kanoya Air Base reported a minimum pressure of 953 mb at 0438Z and 0501Z.

SPECI RJFY 140438Z 16015KT 2500 -SHRA BR FEW002 BKN010 OVC020 FEW020CB 27/25 Q0953 RMK 2ST002 5CU010 8CU020 1CB020 A2814 CB 10KM NE MOV NE P/FR

SPECI RJFY 140501Z 21013G29KT 2000 SHRA BR SCT002 BKN010 OVC020 FEW020CB 26/25 Q0953 RMK 3ST002 5CU010 8CU020 1CB020 A2815 CB 15KM NE MOV NE

[Aslkahuna]

Strongest gusts were 91 mph at Miyazaki (RJFM), G74 mph at Kanoya AB (RJFY) and G78 mph at Tanegashima (RJFG). Incidentally, Amami Airport (RJKA) is not on Okinoerabushima (RJKB) but on the island of Amami a bit further up the chain of islands in the Ryukyus.

Steve

[miamicanes177]

Looks like track forecasts were off and this will skirt the coast.

[cycloneye]

-YI)
Issued at 12:00 UTC, 14 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 32.7N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 35.9N 141.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 161200UTC 37.9N 147.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 171200UTC 39.7N 148.8E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW


JMA latest advisory has it at 80kts.

[HURAKAN]

Ladies and gentlemen, Just a reminder, the ride is almost over, look for the exits closest to you. Thank you.

[miamicanes177]

I'll accept your bet Miamicanes

We will be using the JMA advisories with the appropriate correction from 10 minute to 1 minute sustained winds

How does that crow taste?

[P.K.]

Looks like track forecasts were off and this will skirt the coast.

The track forecast for this really hasn't been too bad.

10/7/07:



12/7/07:



14/7/07 latest track:

[Chacor]

Fairly close to third landfall right now...

[wxmann_91]

I'll accept your bet Miamicanes

We will be using the JMA advisories with the appropriate correction from 10 minute to 1 minute sustained winds

How does that crow taste?

You were right cause you were lucky, no offense. I really think this was no more than Cat 2 at landfall. No pro met would've wagered that it was to make landfall as a Major considering the environment surrounding Japan, and the current, date, and if he had said JTWC advisories, he would've won the bet.

BUT... according to the bet, he has to start a new thread stating that he was wrong.

[Category 5]

Anybody have the current conditions in Tokyo?

[P.K.]

Only winds of 2m/s in Tokyo at the moment (7.2km/h).

15 July 2007 Haneda (Tokyo International Airport)
Latitude: 35°33.2'N, Longitude: 139°46.8'E, Altitude: 6m

Time Temperature Precipitation Wind Direction Wind Speed
Hour °C mm In 16 Compass Points m/s
1 21.4 11.0 NNW 3
2 21.3 2.0 NW 3
3 21.0 3.5 NW 4
4 21.3 2.5 NNW 2

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-44166.html?groupCode=30&areaCode=000

[Chacor]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0704 MAN-YI (0704) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 33.9N 137.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 36.0N 145.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 170000UTC 37.4N 150.2E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[WindRunner]

Four threads? OK . . . don't know why the one starting with HurricaneBill's post split off the main TY Man-yi thread, but I guess there's not any problem with new threads for downgrades. Still seems a bit excessive . . . though if you're going to do it, it is a STS - though that shouldn't last long . . .

[Chacor]

I think it's easier if we do just three segments: LOW (INVEST) and TD (since usually JMA TDs are INVESTs only), one for TS/STS and one for typhoon. Only problem is if a storm oscillates between intensities.

[cycloneye]

I made an error on spliting the threads but finnally Chacors advisory was separated from the rest and now is a new thread for weakening Man-yi.As WindRunner said,being STS for a brief time makes it not necessary to make a new thread for that but instead a Tropical Storm thread it's better.

[WindRunner]

OK, my only thought was to the ocillating thing like Chacor mentined . . . but if we want to do one thread for its starts (the invest/TD phase), one for when it gets named (TS/STS), one for typhoon status, and then going back down, I guess that works. I think the oscillation thing might be a problem . . . but we can wait and handle that when it happens.

[cycloneye]

OK, my only thought was to the ocillating thing like Chacor mentined . . . but if we want to do one thread for its starts (the invest/TD phase), one for when it gets named (TS/STS), one for typhoon status, and then going back down, I guess that works. I think the oscillation thing might be a problem . . . but we can wait and handle that when it happens.

Agreed with that suggestion.Now let's wait for the next invest. One question is if that typhoon turns into a Supertyphoon how will we procced?

[HurricaneBill]

One question is if that typhoon turns into a Supertyphoon how will we procced?

There's no such thing as a super typhoon anymore. Remember?